California Will Become a Red State by 2008

CA Sec't of State ^

[Grampa Dave]

Bush also increased his share of the Hispanic vote to 42%... If the GOP can continue that going forward it would put Cali back in play.

Was that 42% here in California? Thanks.

[jneesy]

illegal immigration is the new 3rd rail . but if hispanic voting keeps increasing for us expect the dems to start screaming about immigration law

[weegee]

I'd still like to see an explanation for this:

County Name Nevada
138 Total Precincts
138 Precincts Rpt'g
100% Rpt'g
65,411 Reg'd Voters
94,281 Ballots Cast
144.1% Turnout
(Nov) 2 8:11pm First Report Date-Time
(Nov) 3 2:15am Latest Report Date-Time
F Report Type*

County Status As of Nov 4, 2004 at 11:15 am

How did it change in 2 hours?

138 Total Precincts
138 Precincts Rpt'g
100% Rpt'g
65,411 Reg'd Voters
47,032 Ballots Cast
71.9% Turnout
(Nov) 2 8:11pm First Report Date-Time
(Nov) 3 4:15am Latest Report Date-Time
U Report Type*

* Report Type:
R = Regular election night report
F = Final report filed on election night
U = Update to final election night report

What is the accounting for the overcount in the early morning?

[Grampa Dave]

Some good trends in this state.

[Osage Orange]

Call the freaking SEC of State...and tell them that the DEMOCRAT Party...isn't the DEMOCRATIC Party..!!!

Ugh...that ticks me off.

Okay...rant off, back to your regular programming..........................

[seedman81]

Growing up in the San Joaquin valley and currently residing in Merced county, it is plain to me that we get a bad rap due to the liberal Bay Area and LaLa Land. If you go to Hannity's site he has a map that includes every county in the country in red and (very little) blue. It is quite impressive and shows CA to be mostly conservative with the exceptions of the aforementioned liberal areas.

[kezekiel]

if hispanic voting keeps increasing for us expect the dems to start screaming about immigration law

Just like voting rights are sacred, unless you are in the military or want to vote for Nader.

[lemura]

Another reason why Calif could go red in 2008 is that a lot of the recent voting was driven more by anti-Bush sentiments rather than anti-R feelings. If the Repubs nominated someone like Guilianni or McCain, Calif would definitely be in play.

[Grampa Dave]

I would campaign and donate against McCain. Don't go there.

[TeleStraightShooter]

10.2% is the margin that sum of all the leftist presidential candidates had over the sum of all the "right" presidential candidates for 2004.

13.9% is the margin that sum of all the leftist presidential candidates had over the sum of all the "right" presidential candidates for 2000.

So the margin is shrinking

2004 Ca Totals
2000 Ca Totals

[Aetius]

I hope you're right, but I doubt it. Bush still underperformed with whites, and still got clobbered by Hispanics.

Hispanics in Calif seem like those in Illinois and NY; i.e. they are liberal in party preference.

[capitan_refugio]

It used to be that San bernardino, Riverside, and Orange counties pluralities for Republicans could balanced out Los Angeles County for the Democrats, but not suite anymore.

The Central Valley counties continue to be a bastion of Republican strength, but similarly do not counterbalance the Bay area. Somehow the Republican have to learn how to win back the business-oriented south Bay area (Silicon Valley) and cut into Democratic margins in Los Angeles County.

[cgk]

I'd like the answer, too, even if the majority of voters went for Bush. 144 % turnout even for a "preliminary" count needs to be explained. Almost 30,000 votes counted suddenly gone by morning needs to be explained.

I haven't heard from the Sec of State yet, nor the local newspaper - http://www.theunion.com/.

[capitan_refugio]

San Francisco County = San Francisco City. There is no hope for those folks. Fortunately, their population has been decreasing.

[bilhosty]

I don't think there is a chance California will go red in the next 4 years unless San Francisco and Los Angeles Counties fall into the Pacific. That said I think the only demographic that will hurt the GOP is the latino's. According to Barone when you get away from the coastal areas they are not so Democratic. They actually usually vote Republican and they are now at 48% of the population and unlike the coastal areas are growing. Also the Republican's have a higher fertility rate then the Dem's, who are probably just buggering each other.

[cicero's_son]

But then there is the San Andreas fault...

Someday.

[B Knotts]

I would not vote for Giuliani, under any circumstances, but would probably vote, very reluctantly, for McCain.

But, I sure wouldn't be fired up about it.

[B Knotts]

Guess I ought to update my tagline. I always forget about it.

[Grampa Dave]

Your new tagline should drive liberals even more insane.

How did your area/city vote Tuesday.

[zoyd]

Uh, no.

California is already decidedly liberal, and the next four years will only bring more minorities to the state. And in case you didn't know, minorities tend to vote Democrat.

You can break down by county all you want... the demographics show that the notion of California becoming a 'red state' is a silly one.