Skip to comments.A Virtuous Victory / The Evangelicals may have clinched it for Bush. (an absolute must read)
Posted on 11/06/2004 11:05:42 PM PST by Former Military Chick
Who would have thought that lying exit polls, socially conservative Democrats, and Evangelical Christians would have dwarfed traditional issues like national security and economic prosperity on Election Day 2004. But at the margin and in important ways the exit polls and the Evangelicals may have pushed President George W. Bush over the victory line.
The exit-polling phenomenon is a disgrace. Two companies, Edison Media Research and Mitofsky, did the polling for the Associated Press and the television networks. Their early results were devastating for Bush and his supporters in one case showing Pennsylvania down by 19 percentage points, which was a complete fiction. Elsewhere, these fraudulent forecasts showed Kerry winning handily in Florida and Ohio. A solid pro-Bush stock market rally immediately reversed on this alleged news. Tradesports.com, the online pay-for-play poll, shifted from a near 20-point Bush victory forecast to a 40-point Bush deficit estimate.
These were the same people who screwed up in 2000. Somewhere in the future this whole process must be completely changed, or even eliminated.
But wait. Could it be that these early phony returns, showing Bush going down in defeat, actually motivated some of his hardest-core supporters to get out and vote?
Though the established media outlets almost never talk about it, Bushs core support group has all along been the born-again Christians. They make up roughly 40 percent of the American population. They are middle-class folk who go to church, read the Bible, and practice traditional virtues and values make that religious values in their daily lives. They are married and tend to stay married. They are shopkeepers and small-business people. Many are stay-at-home self-employed. Others are salespeople who travel their regions as insurance brokers or financial planners or corporate product representatives. They drive SUVs. They shop at Wal-Mart and JCPenney. They are middle class.
Yes, and they believe in God as does their candidate George W. Bush. They also believe in traditional marriage between a man and a woman. And as befits the traditional nuclear family, they love their children and believe strongly in a childs right to life.
In Ohio, which turned out to be Bushs most important swing state after all, one-fourth of voters identified themselves as born-again Christians and they backed Bush by a 3-to-1 margin. These folks turned out heavily to support Ohios state constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. In fact, voters in 11 states approved constitutional amendments limiting marriage to one man and one woman.
Much like Ronald Reagans opposition to abortion in 1980, a move designed to express his belief in the issue while also reaching out to socially conservative Democrats, Bush worked the traditional-marriage issue heavily in the last days of the campaign. Kerry, meanwhile, steadfastly favored a pro-abortion stance and opposed the Defense of Marriage Act. The Bush strategy apparently won out. It may have been the single most important closer in Bushs Electoral College and popular-vote victory.
Ironically, in the final days of the election, Bush seems to have lost ground on the issue of terrorism and the Iraq war. Conventional wisdom again proved wrong. Because of Bushs confusing response, Kerry gained points on the Al Qaqaa ammunition controversy. And the last-minute reappearance of Osama bin Laden reminded people that Bush never truly rebutted Kerrys Tora Bora outsourcing charge. Kerry played his cards shrewdly in this area and picked up support, even as he went against the Clintonian advice of his advisors who thought he should stick to healthcare and jobs.
But in the end the evidence points to the Evangelicals as Bushs primary engine of victory. Its still a rumor, but if Team Kerry leaked phony exit-poll numbers they may have actually increased the Christian turnout, rather than depressing it.
All of this points to an important political thought: Rather than wasting time trying to persuade blue-state liberals to switch their allegiance to conservative principles whether national security, tax cuts, or the social issues it is much more productive to expand the base of red-state conservatives and get them to turn out heavily on Election Day. America is a conservative right nation. It is now governed by a conservative president, a conservative Senate, a conservative House of Representatives, and a majority of conservative governors.
If the Bush-led conservative majority keeps its promises on a strong defense, on spreading peace-inducing freedom and democracy around the world, on limited government and lower tax rates to promote economic growth at home, on the pro-consumer, pro-investor, ownership-society, reformist conservative agenda for Social Security, healthcare, and education, and on the social values of protecting the unborn and preserving traditional marriage, then the 2004 election outcome will represent a huge step in the right direction for this great country.
Larry Kudlow, NRO's Economics Editor, is CEO of Kudlow & Co. and host with Jim Cramer of CNBC's Kudlow & Cramer.
Then I saw that he was on Joe's show in the evening and let me tell you, he holds his own with the big dogs. I mean, when there is a lefty know it all, Larry knows more and he is right. I have watched a couple of times where the guest who he just put in his place and the guest is *dumb struck!"
He did an excellent job in calling this election from many angles. He really reminds me of Ben Stein but without all of Ben's winning personality.
It is a must read to me because he really has done a good job in discussing exit polls.
Which incidently I feel should be left out of future elections. They may have been helpful years ago before the computer but now everything is real time and well a bit more accurate if you know what I mean.
"Though the established media outlets almost never talk about it, Bushs core support group has all along been the born-again Christians. They make up roughly 40 percent of the American population"
This figure doesn't sound right at all, unless he's using the most liberal definition of 'born again christian' possible.
I know what you mean!
Thanks for the article.
I think those ex-cBSers certainly tried to help ol' Dan out.
Kenneth has had it in for the Bush family since 41 put him in his place. Man that was years ago.
He was the architect of the part of the tax cut bill which eradicated cap gains on dividends. He's great.
A Kudlow must read **Ping**
The use of exit-polling by the media is a much better conveyance.
The group he is talking about don't sit at their computer or TV watching polls. They would have planned on voting well in advance. The polls would not have had any greater or lesser effect on evangelicals.
I've also seen more of him recently. I like the guy. Hell, I love the guy.
I dislike this attempt to stereotype voters and reduce their motivations to neat formulae---as if belief in morality were something quaint and unusual that had to be accounted for in a minority group. The moral factors helped Bush with a broad range of voters.
Funny though how noone is talking of the Pro-gun vote.
Good point. I didn't catch that. Any theories?
Fear? Fear that it would be the absolute last nail in the coffin of the gun grabbers?