Osama bin Laden Message Analysis & Threat Assessment v1.1

IntelCenter ^ | 11/08/2004 | IntelCenter

[AlfAlpha]

There is a significant risk of al-Qaeda attempting to execute a signature attack in the 60-da period following the 29 Oct. 2004 release of OBL's video statement.

[AlfAlpha]

This is pdf freely available to the public regarding the OBL message in October. It is worth reading.

[streetrepair]

I HATE PDF files! :)

[newzjunkey]

Are these the eggheads predicting the would be an attack during the first week of October in order to help Kerry get elected?

[baltodog]

Read-too-many-Tom-Clancy-books-ping

[AlfAlpha]

No. It's basically a statistical analysis of messages/threats/follow-up actions. Summary is that odds are high this was setup for justifying a mass casualty attack in CONUS, within 60 days of the October 29, video release. The first couple of pages are definitely worth a read.

[WideGlide]

We have SPECIAL Slurpee flavor for you Infidel.

[newzjunkey]

I've read half of it and it is interesting. There definitely appears to be a "window" that Al Queda uses for their major operations. I hadn't realized America gets its addresses in October. I wonder why that is.

Clearly, there's one major terror-attractive event this month: opening of the Clinton Library. I'm sure there could be others.

However, it's hard to know what shape any attack would take, whether it would be a homeland attack, at overseas targets or directed at allies. It's not even clear, as best as I recall, whether the anthrax mailings were Al Queda or domestic opportunism.

Basically we seem to be entering back into a period where holiday travel, celebrations and shopping creates greater opportunity risk.

Really all we can do is keep our eyes open and go about our normal business. And pray.

[Strategerist]

Gosh, like there weren't enough pretend terrorist analysis sites already. (Site doesn't give the slightest qualifications of anyone associated with it, of course. Likely because they don't have any.)

[JRPerry]

Gosh, like there weren't enough pretend terrorist analysis sites already. (Site doesn't give the slightest qualifications of anyone associated with it, of course. Likely because they don't have any.)

Ummmmmm, Gosh. Actually that is one of the top anti-terrorist think tanks in the country. Just because their shingle doesn't say so - do not underestimate the service they are attempting to do by publishing certain information on their site and making it available to all of us. I try to never miss when one of their people are on Fox News and I suspect this is how this thread was started after seeing one of their people on Fox this morning.

[Quix]

That home page link loaded OK.

None of the docs would load via repeated sorts of efforts.

Anyone succeed? How, if so?

[mlocher]

thanks for the post. after reading this, it is not clear to me why the terror alert has not been ratcheted up a notch. terror alert must be based mostly on chatter and other data.