Posted on 11/23/2004 7:57:56 PM PST by eluminate
HERE WE GO!!! link to statistics of population by oblast 2004 http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/ link to statistics of population by age 2001 http://www.ukrcensus.gov.ua/rus/results/general/age/ links to central election commision for the election by region % voted for a candidate and turnout % by region I think poles closed at 20:00 which is 8pm http://www.cvk.gov.ua/wp0011e http://www.cvk.gov.ua/wp0011e I couldn't find age distribution for 2004 so I used the 2001 which is best i could find this should increase my error deviation +/- but still HERE COMES THE FUN PART!
Vinnitsa Region 80,59% Turnout Total population of Vinnitsa Region: 1731291 People over 18 I estimated to be about 81.9% based on the age distribution info for 2001 so we times 1731291 * .819 (which gives us the amount of people who are allowed to vote) = 1417927 * 80.59 (turnout based on election commision data) = 1142707 people voted based on my estimations but I have error embedded in there so lets say that number +/- 50k
This is the official figure which is 1108270 voted so I m off by about 34k which is ok and this is valid regional vote. And you go on and on to check through all of them.
If someone could find a 2004 age distribution within the censuse you could use the percentage of people over 18 or whatever the sufferage age is to determine weather the numbers are fuged or not. I did donetsk was off by about 16k.
2643320 Kiev total * (eligeble age) 81.9% * (turnout) 77.84% about 40k off this is a bit wierd if someone gets eligeble ate + voter closer you could count better then me weather the numbers are fudged or not. If its below you could figure some were thrown out by the majority victory in that area if its above they were fudged in his favor.
This was fun to do.
i think the turn out is to high ..... it is all manual .... so
exit polls are tainted by where they are taken and by whoom. this is census data presumably more reasonably to suspect that it is valid. I m basicly comparing election results to census data (which is sort of a much more honest and unbiased comparison) exit polls predicted bush would looze because they were taken mostly in urban areas and the more samples of women and minorities were taken then the avarage required for the poll to be more realistic.
I m basicly comparing weather more people voted then possible according to the age of the amount of people which live in an area. For example Area A has 1 mil people of which 80 % are eligable to vote but 860 thousand voted that is fraud no matter whom was the winner.
Uh, does anyone really care about this?
Obviously or you would not have clicked on the thread.
Ping
Well yea.... Cousin Vlad in Moscow is VERY interested.
You see Putin's guy, Victor 1 (I can never get the last names straight) is from the Southeast Ukraine which, through forced immigration during the Soviet era is now predominantly ethnic Russian and looks to Moscow for leadership and inspiration.
Victor 2, the guy who got the Ashcroft treatment, is from the Northwest Ukraine which is predominately, well, ethnic Ukrainian and looks toward Europe and the west. They would like things like an honest market economy, membership in the EU and (this is the part that has cousin Vlad defecating masonry) maybe even membership in NATO.
Needless to say, the Russians are not enthusiastic about the prospect of NATO expanding into what was the heart of the old Soviet Union. There is just something about the possibility of German tanks rumbling across the Ukrainian steppe which disturbs your average Russian for some reason. What the Russians might try to do to prevent this is, uh, potentially very disturbing.
So yes, I for one am interested in the outcome.
Karl Rove stole the election with the help of that evil Diebold!
Least we forget, it's that way through forced Soviet immigration that removed the majority Poles from that area, post WW2. Also, the Crimea wasn't Ukrainian, it was Turkik, that Stalin removed.
Well as is typical of the Soros play book, they started screaming fraud as soon as the polls openned.
what I tried to prove using statistics and the census data is that both sides have fixed the election in their corresponding geographical areas. With the east having a turnout of 90%+ for Yanukovich and the west having 90%+ for Yuschenko its just more people live in the east and thats why it won out. In the end frauds cancel each other out and it was a fair election because it was so close.
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