Posted on 11/24/2004 4:34:55 PM PST by qam1
ight the candles, turn on the charm - it's time to start reproducing to save Australia's economic future.
Treasurer Peter Costello has already beseeched healthy young couples to procreate for their country, and now a report on the economic implications of the ageing population has given his words extra weight.
Far from blaming the baby boomers for a projected doubling in the proportion of people aged 65 years or more by 2044, the draft Productivity Commission report has found that falling fertility is the major culprit.
"Much of the projected change in the age structure reflects slow growth in the population of younger ages in the coming decades," the commission said.
"This is not a symptom of the baby boom, but its opposite, the long-run decline of fertility in Australia since the 1960s."
In fact, by temporarily reversing a slow century-long decline in fertility rates, the post-World War II baby boom may actually have delayed the point at which Australia's ageing population will become a big economic burden.
"The main effects of the baby boom have been to defer population ageing in Australia," the commission said.
Short of a massive modern-day baby boom, the commission said there was little the nation could do to slow the process.
"Even where there are no further improvements in life expectancy - a very pessimistic outlook - and no further falls in fertility, then population ageing would still continue," it said.
"There are credible arguments that population ageing may turn out to be more profound than the base case projections used throughout this study."
The commission has even debunked the commonly-held view that increased migration would be an easy way to defer the trend.
"To avoid or delay any increase in the aged dependency ratio by just 40 years would require a net migrant inflow ... about six times the present ratio," it said.
"This would result in an Australian population of around 114 million by 2044/45, compared to the base case projection of 26.2 million."
Having a bigger proportion of older people will increase the nation's healthcare costs and diminish participation in the workforce, the report found.
The commission estimates that gross domestic product (GDP) growth per capita could fall to 1.25 per cent per year in the 2020s - about half its present rate - while health spending is likely to rise from six per cent to about 10.8 per cent of GDP by 2044.
Despite the projections, Commission chairman Gary Banks said the picture was not all doom and gloom.
"Average household incomes will have nearly doubled in 40 years and rising government outlays bring benefits as well as costs," Mr Banks said.
"Timely policy action would help adjustment and avoid the need for big bang interventions.
"Population ageing can only be conceived of as a crisis if we let it become one."
Xer Ping
Ping list for the discussion of the politics and social aspects that directly effects Generation Reagan / Generation-X (Those born from 1965-1981) including all the spending previous generations (i.e. The Baby Boomers) are doing that Gen-X and Y will end up paying for.
Freep mail me to be added or dropped. See my home page for details and previous articles.
Let's face it, with life expectancy increasing, the only alternative will be to increase the age at which people retire. That is the only feasible out.
Sounds like a good deal to me.
I'm going to take that as a direct order and get started right away.
lol
And how would this inflated immigration rate impact Australian society as far as social values go?
I am a Father of five and a Grandfather of ten but I am going to Grandma tonight and tell her the importance of continuing to procreate. It is my duty .....
Guess with my four boys, and another baby on the way, I am doing my duty by God AND country,lol. Gotta make up for the sib who only has one, you know.
I guess a lot of folks need an instruction manual...that Nike hat pic should do nicely, imo. :)
"It is my duty ....."
LOL, you go sexy grampa!
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