Bird flu may cause next pandemic

King County Journal ^ | 11/27/04 | King Country Staff

[pandemic_1918]

BANGKOK, Thailand --World Health Organization experts are warning that Asia's bird flu is the most likely candidate to cause the world's next pandemic, with the possibility of as many as 7 million deaths and billions of outbreaks.

``I believe we are closer now to a pandemic than at any time in recent years,'' Shigeru Omi, Western Pacific regional director of WHO, said Friday at a regional meeting about the disease.

``The current outbreak (of avian influenza) in poultry is historically unprecedented in terms of geographical spread and impact,'' he said. ``This virus appears to be not only very resilient, but also extremely versatile.''

According to Reuters, WHO experts say the next pandemic could infect up to 30 percent of the world's more than 6 billion people and kill up to 7 million of them.

WHO reports that pigs are particularly susceptible to avian and mammalian viruses. ``Experts,'' Reuters reports, ``say a pandemic will emerge from an animal, most probably a pig, which can harbor both flu viruses that affect humans and the avian flu variety.'' The two would mate and produce a virus to which people have no immunity, they say.

Experience in creating flu vaccines is extensive, but it takes at least four months to produce a new one. And while ``two U.S. firms are working on a vaccine, neither is likely to have one ready until March,'' Reuters reports, ``well after the cooler Asian season in which bird flu thrives best.''

[pandemic_1918]

The high infection rate coupled with high fatality rate could produce significant political, social, and economic impact.

[pandemic_1918]

ping for latest on flu pandemic

[In The Crease]

I think that these pandemics are the Earth's way of saying that it doesn't like the idea of 6 billion people. Thinning out the herd periodocally, it seems.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #1

Don't tell me about it. If it occurs in China, we all definitely realize that we are living in an "interesting time."

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #3

Right, nature's way of controlling population. No need for condoms or contraceptives. Just virus will do.

[dsc]

How come we keep seeing these "*IF* such-and-such happens, it will be the end of the world" articles?

Who are they trying to panic?

[pandemic_1918]

The flu virus evolves via recombination, which happens most frequently when the denisty of the virus is high, so it actually may be involved in population control

http://www.recombinomics.com/viral_evolution.html

[pandemic_1918]

WHO and the CDC are actually being quite conservative on the number of deaths, which could top 1 billion

http://www.recombinomics.com/pandemic_potential.html

The conditions for a "perfect pandemic" have been building for several years now.

[Rain-maker]

Bird flu scare crap imo, like Sars last year.

 

I got your " Bird Flew" right here.

[sgtbono2002]

Whats with the Chinese and their new Bird Flu's every year? Are the Chinese having sex with chickens?

[pandemic_1918]

Migratory birds are a major factor and flu season (and bird migration) is beginning (avian flu is just one flight away)

[ThreePuttinDude]

Lets see, before the elections it was the flu vaccine shortage crisis.

Actual cases of flu reported....5

Now thats one hell of an outbreak

[pandemic_1918]

There is some speculation that a poorly matched H5N1 animal vaccine generated the huge outbreak that spread across eastern and southeastern Asia last season.

However, now H5N1 is endemic in Vietnam and Thailand and has even been found in Russia. The version in Vietnam and Thailand is very nasty

http://www.recombinomics.com/swine_human_signatures.html

but its the virus that is having sex

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_mating_mutating.html

[pandemic_1918]

Bird flu (H5N1) is very different than human flu. Right now there is no pandemic H5N1 vaccine anywhere (at least not any made against the current version of H5N1). Vaccine is projected to be ready in 2007 for the general public (and WHO has recommended vaccinating the world).

[pandemic_1918]

The flu season is just beginning in the northern hemisphere and human cases are beginning to increase

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

but its the H5N1 infected pigeons dropping out of the sky that has closed schools in Thailand

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_pigeons.html

[DoughtyOne]

I love it when they throw words about like 'pandemic'. Isn't this a great title. Bird flu may cause next pandemic And then again, it may not. Oops, I shouldn't mention that. Wouldn't want to calm the masses.

For years we've been told flu vaccine is a must. This year half the nation's supply evaporated around October 5th, when Chiron Pharmaceuticals announced their stock was adultrated, no delievery this year. Strangely, we're going to make it through just fine.

Killer bees were going to be the scourge of the nation. Then they arrived and you never heard another word about them.

Lime disease, Nile Virus, even AIDS... there are so many pandemics and so little time to worry about each one.

I'm going to go lie down and try to rest up. Pandemics are on the march.

[Rain-maker]

 

 

 

[pandemic_1918]

Actually, WHO says the flu pandamic is more of a when than an if (and it will definitely be caused by H5N1).

[Glenn]

How much do we owe WHO for this favor?

[DoughtyOne]

I do believe that pandemics will occur from time to time. I also believe that there's very little the average person can do about it, so I go on about my life with little concern.

When your time is up, it's up. There's no harm in posting information like this. People should be allowed to get their house in order before the big bon voyage. Heh heh heh...