Bird flu may cause next pandemic

King County Journal ^ | 11/27/04 | King Country Staff

[Diddle E. Squat]

Did your previous freepname include the words "Abigail" or "Bones McCoy"?

[dmcnash]

I believe that in some regions in China people live in close proximity to their livestock, primarily pigs and chickens. They may even keep livestock in their homes or huts. This allows the virus to easily bounce around from host to host, recombine with non-human strains to produce a new human strain.

I don't know that they have sex with their livestock but I'm sure they choke a few chickens.

[Diddle E. Squat]

"WHO are you?
WHO, WHO,
WHO, WHO?

I really wanna know
WHO are you?
WHO, WHO,
WHO, WHO?"

[pandemic_1918]

>>Did your previous freepname include the words "Abigail" or "Bones McCoy"?<<

I feel like I'm on "What's My Line?"

answer:

Not to my knowledge.

[pandemic_1918]

>>They may even keep livestock in their homes or huts.<<

Check out the quackers.

[Diddle E. Squat]

I'm guessing that Gatun is a place in Panama, but what is a Mango Tree Lawyer?

Sorry for being nosy, but I've always been a bit curious, and consider your freep name one of the most original.

[pandemic_1918]

>>I don't know that they have sex with their livestock<<

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_mating_mutating.html

[pandemic_1918]

Here's what CDC says:

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/pandemics.htm

There were three pandemics in the 20th century. All of them spread worldwide within 1 year of being detected. They are:

1918-19, "Spanish flu," [A (H1N1)], caused the highest number of known flu deaths: more than 500,000 people died in the United States, and 20 million to 50 million people may have died worldwide. Many people died within the first few days after infection and others died of complications soon after. Nearly half of those who died were young, healthy adults.
1957-58, "Asian flu," [A (H2N2)], caused about 70,000 deaths in the United States. First identified in China in late February 1957, the Asian flu spread to the United States by June 1957.
1968-69, "Hong Kong flu," [A (H3N2)], caused approximately 34,000 deaths in the United States. This virus was first detected in Hong Kong in early 1968 and spread to the United States later that year. Type A (H3N2) viruses still circulate today.
Both the 1957-58 and 1968-69 pandemic viruses were a result of the reassortment of a human virus with an avian influenza virus. The origin of the 1918 pandemic virus is not clear.

Once a new pandemic influenza virus emerges and spreads, it typically becomes established among people and circulates for many years. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization conduct extensive surveillance programs to monitor the occurrence of influenza activity worldwide, including the emergence of potential pandemic strains of influenza virus.

[doom n gloom]

Don't you know we are DOOMED? Show a little respect!

Embrace the horror!!

[pandemic_1918]

>>Embrace the horror!!<<

That's the formula for human ti human transmission

http://www.recombinomics.com/human_human_probable.html

[pandemic_1918]

>>How much do we owe WHO for this favor?<<

WHO is actually pretty conservative. WHO and CDC used very low case fatality numbers for SARS, which they had to revise up to the real number.

They are also starting low on avian flu. The number of deaths could top 1 Billion

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_reassort_recombine.html

[festus]

I've marked my calendar and will begin worrying about this on July 14th unless something better comes along ;-)

[CAPTAIN PHOTON]

No, but the chinese are having sex with each other, and the farmers live in close proximity with their animals. It's a very intensive husbandry - the birds are fed the pig manure, back and forth. bird2pig2man=epidemic.

[pandemic_1918]

>>I've marked my calendar and will begin worrying about this on July 14th unless something better comes along ;-)<<

The flu season is beginning now and will be over in April (unless you are in the southern hemisphere)

[pandemic_1918]

>>bird2pig2man=epidemic<<

Actually, at this point no pigs or humans required (see - the pandemic is closer than you think). H5N1 has all ready picked up the killer sequences

http://www.recombinomics.com/swine_human_signatures.html

and can get the human receptor binding from H9N2

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_H9N2.html

thus bird(H5N1)2bird(H9N2)=pandemic

(which is why Aventis is working on an H5N1 vaccine and Chiron is doing H9N2 - but Chirons Liverpool plant still needs approval)

and pandemic equals 1 Billion deaths

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_reassort_recombine.html

[pandemic_1918]

Thread on article with more specifics on genetic changes that increase likelihood of H5N1 flu pandemic posted at

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1289487/posts

[CAPTAIN PHOTON]

I wonder why you bother?

While Flu's unlikely to cause a billion deaths - pandemics tend to attenuate as they travel through human populations -
there could well be 50 or a 100 million, 200 million? plus deaths, or more. Unless those that matter (westerners and pacific rim folk) are vaccinated, or there is a big supply of effective anti-virals, THIS IS GOING TO BE HUGE! Remember, when it really breaks, It's likely to go 'round the world in 40 days! Of course, The Bushbot Jungvolk think
Reagan and W2 abolished all things bad, so bad things can't affect them....

Leave early, Stay long, Return late!

[Gatún(CraigIsaMangoTreeLawyer)]

I just sent you a freepmail.

Regards.

[steve86]

Did your previous freepname include the words "Abigail" or "Bones McCoy"?

Those are knowledgeable people as well.

[DoughtyOne]

Come to think of it, that is a pandemic. Yeeeeeeee... lol