100m could die in flu pandemic, says WHO (Promoter perishes in Zot pandemic)

Mail & Guardian Online ^ | 11/29/04 | Agence France=Presse

[pandemic_1918]

Up to 100 million people may die within weeks if a bird flu pandemic breaks out, a senior World Health Organisation (WHO) official warned on Monday as he urged nations to make urgent preparations to mitigate its spread.

A global outbreak is almost certain and even widescale vaccination programmes will not be enough to halt its inexorable advance, the WHO director for the Western Pacific, Shigeru Omi, said in Hong Kong.

"The most conservative estimate is that seven to 10 million people would die, but the maximum range will be more -- 50 million or even in the worst case 100 million people," Omi said in his starkest warning yet of the potential peril from a mutation of avian flu to a form that may be transmitted by humans.

"It will come," he said during a flying visit to the city where the H5N1 flu strain first mutated into a strain lethal to humans.

Omi said it was impossible to predict when a pandemic will happen but said it would not take long to reach all corners of the globe.

"Before it would have taken a year to spread around the world but thanks to globalisation it will take just weeks. If we are not prepared the consequences will be serious."

[pandemic_1918]

WHO is doing the math. If 1-2 Billion people are infected with a vairus that has a 70% case fatality rate, then the number dead is much higher than earlier estimates of 2-7 million.

[pandemic_1918]

The H5N1 virus has a 70% case fatality rate

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_mortality_rate.html

and WHO has predicted 1/3 to 1/4 of the world's population could be infected, which means the number dead could top 1 Billion

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_reassort_recombine.html

[elfman2]

About 3 years ago 3-4 “different” people signed onto Free Republic and immediately started the biggest chicken little panic fest I’ve ever seen about the “worst flu epidemic in history” poised to kill tens of millions in the US. There must have been 100 threads in 6 weeks on the subject

Now this newbie’s doing the same thing. Get lost.

[Puppage]

10 MILLION CIVILIANS WILL DIE IF WE INVADE IRAQ!!

[thoughtomator]

He must own stock in a flu vaccine manufacturer.

[ProudVet77]

Please, not this early in the morning!

[bill1952]

Yeah, right. The WHO is a freaking joke. WHO?

"The sky is falling and my hair is on fire!"

[Born Conservative]

Welcome to Free Republic.

[Puppage]

Please, not this early in the morning!

You're right. My apologies.

[bill1952]

Coffee. Must have coffee.

Who is pictured?

[Puppage]

Janine GOD awful O

[verity]

WHO? :~)

[pandemic_1918]

>>Please, not this early in the morning!<<

This is the first story on WHO now upping the number to 100 million deaths from H5N1 pandemic flu. There will be several more today.

[conservativecorner]

Scary stuff to say the least. If we get tort reform, we may get some companies making vaccine in the future for a range of diseases. We are down to 1 company when we used to have 7. The lawyers have to be stopped, and from the standpoint of this article, the sooner the better.

[agere_contra]

The HK scientists monitor flu growth in the (captive)avian population very carefully. When it gets too bad, they stick them all in bin-liners and gas them. They did this some years ago.

We NEED to keep a track on this, true. But its not as if we're helpless.

[pandemic_1918]

>>He must own stock in a flu vaccine manufacturer.<<

Hong Kong is discounting the effectiveness of vaccines

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_vaccine_predictions.html

[NautiNurse]

He must own stock in a flu vaccine manufacturer.

Was thinking more along the line that this is a Kerry loser post-election whine for flu vaccine shortages.

[thoughtomator]

OK, so why did you sign up two days ago to post a flurry of threads warning of a flu pandemic? Why here? What's your goal? After all, if this doomsday scenario did come true, what could we do about it?

[pandemic_1918]

WHO has been pretty conservative. They initially said 2-7 million deaths, which is a VERY conservative number

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_reassort_recombine.html

[CondorFlight]

In 1918, there are estimated to have been from 50-100 millions deaths worldwide. In the USA, about 1/4 of the population got sick; about 500,000 died in a period of 10 weeks--more than we lost in WWI.
If we have that type of flu again, figuring the math,
with larger populations, there may be larger death totals.
(We don't know, because the flu will not be exactly the same.)
BUT, yes, there can be another worldwide flu pandemic;
we just don't know when. (If there is, figure on longer
waits to get flu shots. . .:-)

[SC DOC]

The current vaccine would not be protective for humans. The H5N1 virus affects birds only. However, it is not unusual for an avian virus to combine with a human virus to form a new flu strain. Until that happens, new vaccines cannot be developed, and old vaccines would be of little benefit.

[Halgr]

Yes the sky is falling....but, prudence dictates that we keep an eye out...I know I will.

[rabidralph]

Keyboards are the biggest spreader of flu virus to chickens. You better log out.

[pandemic_1918]

>>OK, so why did you sign up two days ago to post a flurry of threads warning of a flu pandemic?<<

The lack of intelligent information on earlier threads was scarier than the pandemic. I was working on getting the boards in order - the posters had MANY misconceptions.

I didn't write the news stories, just commented on comments.

[NautiNurse]

Here are some impressive numbers:

Since 11/27/2004,
pandemic_1918 has submitted fifty (50) posts,
across five (5) threads
--and 100% of these posts address the flu.

[pandemic_1918]

>> because the flu will not be exactly the same<<

The case fatality rate for H5N1 in 2004 is 10X the number for the 1918 flu pandemic

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_mortality_rate.html

and the population is 5X bigger.

Do the math.

[Gabz]

WHO also claims that obesity and smoking are epidemics........

[pandemic_1918]

>>The H5N1 virus affects birds only<<

No, H5N1 was already broadened its host range to pigs, cats, mice, ferrets, and humans.

http://www.recombinomics.com/more_tiger_deaths.html

http://www.recombinomics.com/feline_feline.html

http://www.recombinomics.com/swine_h5n1.html

http://www.recombinomics.com/CDC_flu_experiment.html

http://www.recombinomics.com/human_human_probable.html

[Puppage]

Since 11/27/2004, pandemic_1918 has submitted fifty (50) posts, across five (5) threads --and 100% of these posts address the flu.

He's obviously a CYBER HYPOCONDRIAC

[bill1952]

Do you where that flu originated, and how and why it spread?

Won't happen again.

[Born Conservative]

He/she just signed up 2 days ago. Perhaps the goals of these posts are free advertising/marketing for Recombinomics?

[Gabz]

Living on the DelMarVa penninsula, I am always interested in stories regarding any sort of avian influenza.......HOWEVER, having lived here morethan 20 years I am well acquainted with the major precautions taken to protect not only the flocks, but humans as well.

Heck my nearest neighbors, who I can see out my window, are 150,000+ chickens and the poultry idustry is the largest year round private employer in this county. 50 miles north, Sussex County, Delaware is THE largest poultry producing county in the nation.

Avian flu is taken very seriously in these parts..........hysterics from WHO are not.

[Born Conservative]

see post #31

[SC DOC]

Thanks for the update. Looks like the virus has already recombined.

[Proud_texan]

From what I've read and heard about the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic the strain still lives on in water fowl and at some point it may make the jump back to humans either as the same strain or a variant.

From the stories my father told me the Spanish flu hit younger/middle age people. He said one day you'd see so and so walking down the street and two/three days later they'd be dead. Of course our technology is far advanced from 1918 and I don't think the sky is falling, but the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic is an interesting bit of history that isn't all that well known.

[RaceBannon]

Next thing you know people will start complaining about Global Cooling....

[corkoman]

OK - whats so bad about the photos of JenaneneG is that I have this knee-jerk reaction before I realize its her - and the bad thing is...omg...i find her attractive. (sound of feet running off of roof)

[Theo]

And if people die in large numbers, it's the fault of lawyers. Maybe this'll be a wake-up call to bring about tort reform.

[dansangel]

My flu-epidemic answer:

[dansangel]

Don't feel too badly - Glamor Shots (tm) can do wonders with almost anyone.
:-)

[THEUPMAN]

Yeah, right. The WHO is a freaking joke. WHO?

hey bud ... the WHO was the voice of a generation ... emm ... err ... well at least the Tommy rock opera was kind of cool .....
they were at woodstock ya know ..

[Darksheare]

I remember those wide eyed frothing frantic "We're all doomed, remember?" threads.
Dunno what ever became of the posters themselves.

[bill1952]

Hey, you are right! :^)

I still absolutely, outright love "The Who!"

[Pete98]

Hey, as long as the 1 billion deaths take place among enemies of the United States, no problem. And they'd better not ask for our help, either. We're the Imperialist Great Satan, remember? Why would you ask us for help?

[pandemic_1918]

>>Yes the sky is falling....<<

No, its the dead H5N1 infected pigeons that are falling

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_pigeons.html

and the ducks are having problems also

http://www.recombinomics.com/Viet_ducks.html

[GBA]

Not that I don't love a good panic first thing in the morning, nor do I think that what you've posted isn't plausible...the thing is, what can you and I do about it? Is there something beyond the normal flu prevention we should do? Does the current flu vaccine cover this? Do I have to stop feeding the birds in my back yard?

[pandemic_1918]

>>WHO also claims that obesity and smoking are epidemics........<<

WHO is not claiming that H5N1 flu is an epidemic.

[pandemic_1918]

>>Living on the DelMarVa penninsula<<

DelMarVa reported avian flu last week (near the Maryland/Virginia border)

http://www.recombinomics.com/maryland_avian_flu.html

[massgopguy]

One episode of Seinfeld and now she's a policy wonk? Jackie Childs was a familiar character, but he doesn't get to hang a "shingle" on his dressing room wall.

[pandemic_1918]

>>Thanks for the update. Looks like the virus has already recombined.<<

The virus has recombined many times

http://www.recombinomics.com/viral_evolution.html

(that's what influenza does best, but all viruses evolve via recombination)

but the killers in Thailand and Vietnam have pickup up key mammalian signatures

http://www.recombinomics.com/swine_human_signatures.html