Kerry, Hillary would beat Jeb, Frist, and Pataki in 2008

Centre for Public Opinion and Democracy ^ | Dec. 20, 2004

[DaveDCMetro]

Kerry Would Beat (Jeb) Bush In 2008

(Angus Reid Consultants - CPOD Global Scan) – Massachusetts senator John Kerry could win the presidency in 2008, according to a poll by Opinion Dynamics released by Fox News. 45 per cent of respondents would vote for the 2004 Democratic nominee in a head-to-head contest against Republican Florida governor Jeb Bush.

In other prospective elections, New York senator and former first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton leads three Republicans: Florida’s Bush, Tennessee senator Bill Frist and New York governor George Pataki.

Rodham Clinton was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2000, defeating Republican Rick Lazio by 12 per cent. She ruled out a presidential bid in 2004.

Other high-profile Republicans who may run for office in 2008—such as former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona senator John McCain—were not included in the survey. Current president George W. Bush is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term in office.

Polling Data

Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 presidential election were held today and the candidates were (insert choices here), for whom would you vote?

John Kerry (D) 45% - 37% Jeb Bush (R) Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) 40% - 33% Bill Frist (R) Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) 41% - 35% George Pataki (R) Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) 46% - 35% Jeb Bush (R)

Source: Opinion Dynamics / Fox News Methodology: Telephone interviews to 900 American registered voters, conducted on Dec. 14 and Dec. 15, 2004. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

[DaveDCMetro]

Make sure to take a careful look at the polling matchups in the article. Hillary and Kerry are only polling in the 40s, but they're winning because Jeb, Frist, and Pataki are stuck in the 30s. Nominating one of these guys would NOT be good. Thoughts?

[Puppage]

Kerry Would Beat...

sKerry couldn't beat a...

[Conspiracy Guy]

Same poll showed Kerry would when on Nov 2, 2004, and none of the Republicans listed will run. Next question.

[areafiftyone]

She may be able to beat Frist and Jeb Bush but she will not be able to beat Rudy Guiliani. He was not even mentioned in this poll.

[nanak]

Jeb/Frist/Pataki = Certified RINOs

[Damifino]

I guess this means we are still in love with polling.. enjoy it.

[Conspiracy Guy]

When = win.

[jwalsh07]

The Fox poll ranks right down there with Zogby. They were awful in the last cycle.

[nanak]

Jeb/Frist/Pataki = Certified Illegelae Alieno Loving RINOs

[small voice in the wilderness]

..Thoughts?...I'm thinking of opening a toast stand next summer. Thoughts?

[isthisnickcool]

George W. Bush is stupid. George W. Bush can't win. Kerry way ahead in exit polls.

Don't believe everything you read......

[KC_Conspirator]

Its 4 years away.

[cotton1706]

Thanks, John but it's irrelevent. None of these three will be the nominee in '08. Frist is a wortless Senator like yourself. Pataki is the second coming of Nelson Rockefeller (and we don't need a leader of a Democratic state, thank you very much). And Jeb Bush will not run and the American people will give one family national power for only so long.

[Numbers Guy]

Meaningless polls. They're matching up two Democrats with very high name recognition against three Republicans, two of whom have low national name recognition. And the one who has name recognition, Jeb, has to deal with Bush fatigue.

[OpusatFR]

My thoughts are that the media is in search of, and creating a story rather than actually do the hard work of analysis and investigation of current events.

Nothing like lots of useless speculation to bump up those numbers.

Blech...

[RichInOC]

My thoughts? Yes. Polls are bungwipe four years out.

[b4its2late]

LOL.

Kerry would lose even if he were the only candidate....

[Alberta's Child]

I took a careful look at the matchups they polled, and decided that the whole story is a fraud. They rigged the poll by matching up two Democrat "front-runners" (the last Democrat nominee and the Democrat with the most name recognition) against three Republicans who don't stand a chance in hell of getting the GOP nomination in 2008.

They may as well take a poll to see how Pataki would match up against Lieberman . . . we'll call it the Insomniac Election.

[DaveDCMetro]

Perhaps they left McCain and Giuliani out so that it would look like Hillary was a winner and so forth, but I often hear Jeb and Frist come up on this site as possible nominees for 2008. And, well, maybe that's not such a good idea.

[Alberta's Child]

One of the things recent history tells us is that it's almost impossible to accurately predict a nominee four years in advance (except for sitting Presidents, of course). My guess is that the high-profile GOP candidates you see here will vanish from the scene by 2008, and the GOP nominee will be a popular sitting or former governor from a moderate-sized state (George Allen of Virginia, for example).