Posted on 04/17/2005 10:44:32 PM PDT by Destro
What makes the United States the United States? Adaptability for success. Take any point in US History and try to project 25 years into the future:
1776-By 1801 this country will be a beaten colony of share croppers.
1830-By 1855, this country will be a Spanish province.
1862-By 1887, this country will be a agrarian waste land of slave owners.
1888-By 1913, this country will be completely owned by five men.
1933-Forget it.
1950-By 1975, this country will own the world.
1975-By 2000, this country will be a slave of the Arabs due to its gas consumption.
2005-By 2030, this country will be bankrupt.
I just do not believe it is wise to project present trajectories on the American model. It never works.
Yes, but that's why I kept US in first place. LOL
Thirty years is a long time in such terms. Thirty years ago was 1975. Thirty years before that was 1945, and thirty years before that was 1915.. It's easy to overlook how much can change in 30 years.
Think back thirty years: America was reeling from Vietnam; the Soviet Union was challenging for hegemony even in Latin America; the forces of Europe combined were thought at least as powerful as the United States. Japan was still an economic joke; Korea an even funnier one. Etc, etc.
So, a lot can change in 30 years and I'm fairly sure my predictions are actually a bit conservative.
The US is the most powerful nation in history. Never before in history of mankind that one nation acquired so much political, economical, military, and cultural influence like the United States of America. If and when we go down, the whole world will go down with us.
I can't see the EU being #2, I think the Islamic influence will do them in.
Brazil is a sick doggie ruled by a leftist (Commie) prez. I see not much hope they can overcome that problem. They are now aligning themselves with Venezuela and Cuba (and, of course, China). Argentina is on the verge of another economic collapse and political chaos will reign. Latin America is becoming a Chinese commie enclave, while we ignore the problem.
Could anyone have predicted the current geopolitical alignment of the world in 1975 based on population or economy? (Well, yes, and they did, but accurately?) China would have been number one based on the former, Japan on the latter. The single event that kicked those models in the shins was the fall of the Soviet Union, an event that practically nobody predicted in 1975.
I will say that a united Korea will most likely end up in a severe economic slump if the German model holds true, and that is assuming that (1) Kim doesn't turn the place into a radioactive wasteland in the interim, and (2) that the South continues its rate of economic progress to the point where absorbing the North is even feasible.
Mexico? The current economic unipolarity and the pressing population problems of that country coupled with chronic corruption in government argue a fall, not a rise, in prominence. Extraction economies that do not blossom into something more entrepreneurial and diverse tend to stagnate - Saudi Arabia's, for example. I see Mexico stuck in that pattern but would love to be wrong - it'd take some heat off our southern border.
India? Lots going for it if it doesn't slide back into a socialistic model. The EU? Will it even be a federation at that point or remain an economic alliance? Australia? Some of the more vibrant New European states such as the Czech Republic or Hungary? Couldn't say but I wouldn't bet against anyone with a relatively free market, an educated population, and a representative government. Those three are my best predictors of performance.
Sad Bump.
You can't compare US like that. You can't compare Rome to US because it's totally different back then. Apple and orange. For the modern time, I agree with you.
very interesting point -- by the same token, i've always assumed that at some stage, as these countries begin to develop, their own internal needs will mean they will have fewer resources available to "outsource" and things will gradually balance out... until the next cycle of the game
of course (one might imagine in twenty or thirty years South African helpdesks outsourcing the US, Chinese and Indian markets)
Probably because you have never read a paleo-conservative view before? What liberal calls for closing the borders?
Paleo-con or Libertarian but not a Liberal.
I SAY THE US WILL BE NO.1
I will put my money on the US as the greatest power
The US had attracted the best brains in the World to come and do R&D. and this makes all the difference. The US also possess, huge, huge national resources
With brain-power, natural resources, good political system, educated workforce etc, the US JUST CAN"T GO WRONG
The US may be faltering a little bit now, BUT SOONER OR LATER THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WILL FIND THEIR DIRECTIONS AGAIN
Well, I do not read "just one thing" and come up with this. If you read the other articles by this guy, and examine the site carefully... but then, I'm expecting people to take the time to understand something. never mind.
Like I said, you probably have no experiance reading Paleo-conservative or Libertarian viewpoints which are conservative but hostile to the Bush agenda. Find an example from the Marine's website and I will explain where it falls into the political spectrum and why.
Lets see. France and Germany with 10% unemployment rates and growing. Spain also becoming socialist. A military that cannot project its power. A growing muslim population that further strains the EU's economy.
Yeah the EU is one incredible superpower! /sarcasm
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