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Posted on 05/04/2005 12:42:04 AM PDT by Judith Anne
I'm tellin' ya, the only hope is to tan the blood vessels. Fine Capilliarien Leather doesn't leak...
Thank you very much for posting that list of articles, for reference. It will be invaluable, and we all appreciate it.
I'm thrilled with the responses and everyone's posts today. I think I'm going to look around and see if there are any new, news articles.
Welcome back!
That was what Battle Axe was getting at a few days ago. Also wanted to know if the genetic signature could help reveal the origin...
http://www.angolapress-angop.ao/noticia.asp?ID=338852
Changed the numbers again.
[google translate]
Minister of the Health foretells control of the epidemic of the Marburg Luanda, 04/05 - the Angolan minister of the Health, Sebastião Veloso, foretold today, in Luanda, the control, in the next days, of the epidemic of the hemorrhagic fever of Marburg. Sebastião Veloso, that today left the province of the Uíge, after having there worked during seven days, said to have evidenced in the place positive signals that give indications of the control of the disease. "This fact is so evident, because it is for the first time, since the sprouting of the illness that was not registado any in case that, including death in last the 24 hours" - the bearer of the folder of the Health standed out. However, the epidemic will be able to consider controlled if after 21 days if not to registar the occurrence of any case and eradicated if if to the same verify picture after six weeks. Confident, the governor said to be reached the goal, fact that a relief represents. "We consider that it was not em.vão the efforts of the national and international community", pointed out. It congratulated, for its side, the doctors and technician of the health for the enganjamento demonstrated in the combat against the Marburg. In last the 24 hours, in accordance with given supplied, any signal of gravity, remaining itself previous the 277 died of the 308 was not registado case registados since day 13 of October of 2004. The Provincial Hospital of the Uige has only one interned patient, has two days, whose its recovery is satisfactory.
Reminds me of some of the SARS early government reports.
Your new numbers are ready...
Just a note of thanks to the two of you for your suggestion to start this thread. It never occurred to me, and it saves so much frustration--easy to see how useful its going to be.
My fellow FReepers impress the bleep out of me.
The Provincial Hospital of the Uige has only one interned patient, has two days, whose its recovery is satisfactory.
Okay, now, there are 313 cumulative patients (or so) in Uige province (because they have told us all cases are confined to Uige province), as we learned yesterday. Maybe 33 or so alive, but only ONE in the Provincial Hospital? Who is doing well?
Excuse me, Minister of Health of Angola, but I find that...questionable.
How many hospitals does Uige province have? How many Marburg patients at the other hospitals?
What happens to a patient who dies with obvious Marburg symptoms, but no confirmation by lab tests (we remember that you have now two mobile labs capable of testing for Marburg)--how is such a patient counted--or are they "administratively reclassified"?
Not quite 100%. We now have a second reported survivor so 2/282 = 99.3% fatal. The denominator is suspect, as is the numerator--so maybe it is 100%.
MSF has isolation units in Bungo, Ngenge (I'm going to get that wrong) and Uige in Uige Province.
I'm sitting here wondering if Uige province has only ONE isolation unit in Uige...
Marburg Case Fatality Rate Remains Above 99.6%
Recombinomics Commentary
May 3, 2005
>> LUANDA, Angola (AP)--The rare Marburg virus has killed 280 people in Angola over the past six months, at a fatality rate of 89%, authorities said.
The Health Ministry and the World Health Organization said in a joint statement late Monday that officials have recorded 313 cases since the outbreak began in October.
All but 11 of the deaths have occurred in the northern province of Uige <<
The fatality rate quoted by authorities is incorrect. Fatality rates are based on known outcomes of cases. There are 281 reported outcomes for Marburg in Angola and 280 are deaths. Thus, the case fatality rate remains in excess of 99.6%. The fatality rate cited by authorities would be correct if all of the 32 reported cases with unknown outcomes would survive. Since there has only been one survivor in the first 281 outcomes, it is unlikely that there will be 32 survivors in the next 32 outcomes.
The case fatality rate cited by the authorities is misleading. It is going down because more patients are being diagnosed. The difference between those reported and those who have died is 33, which is an all time high for the outbreak. Since only 1 of the 33 Marburg cases alive has been discharged, the 32 reported cases with no outcome are also at an all time high. This indicates the numbers are increasing at a record rate, even though most reported cases outside of Uige have been removed, and no new cases outside of Uige are being added.
If residents of Uige are allowed to leave Uige, it seems unlikely that there are no cases outside of Uige. The hospital remains a source of infection. The number of confirmed health care worker deaths has risen to 19 and new cases have been identified in the hospital. Consequently, the number of Marburg patients seeking hospital treatment in Uige has fallen once again. The continued infection of health care workers inside Uige would increase the chances of more transmission outside of Uige, where there is less awareness or training.
The last two daily reports showed increases in deaths of 14 and 9, while increases in reported cases were 14 and 13. These increases support the fact that the number of cases is on the rise within Uige, and announcements of containment are suspect.
Marburg Case Fatality Rate at 99.6%
Recombinomics Commentary
April 30, 2005
>> But while the number of fatalities had risen, Espirito-Santo said that for the first time an infected patient had recovered and was discharged from an isolation ward at the Uige provincial hospital.
"This patient's case may mean that not all infected will die and that people are developing antibodies to the disease,'' she said.
The patient's age and sex were not known. Espirito-Santo said more people were going to hospitals for treatment after an intensive publicity campaign to alert people of the dangers of Marburg. <<
The official announcement of the first Marburg discharge allows an accurate case fatality rate to be calculated. Various media reports indicated the rate was greater than 90%, but a true rate is based on outcomes. Assuming that the large number of discarded cases was not Marburg, the official count is 1 discharge and 257 deaths. Thus, the case fatality rate is 257/258 or 99.6%, indicating that prior reports of a case fatality rate of 100% were accurate.
The prior high case fatality rate for Marburg or Ebola was 88%, and the record death toll is 280. Since the number of official cases is now almost 280 and the case fatality rate is close to 100%, it seems very likely that the current outbreak will cause more deaths than the highest recorded outbreak for Ebola. The prior Marburg record of 126 deaths was broken earlier this month.
I am confused on that (and I may be splitting hairs).
Is that a new surviving patient or a re-report of the original one surviving patient??
It makes a difference whether this is 99.3% or 99.65% fatal. /sarc
WHOOPS!!!
I got my excerpt wrong from the previous post. It should have been this.
I know, lets quibble of tenths of a percent!
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