Posted on 05/06/2005 5:36:10 AM PDT by MadIvan
Tony Blair may have secured a historic third term for the Labour Party last night but the reduction in the size of his majority will significantly change the way in which he is able to act.
His power and his position in the party have depended almost entirely on the perception since his landslide victory in 1997 that he is a winner. In many parts of the country that has now been undermined.
Last night's result could make it more difficult for the Prime Minister to stay in office for the whole of the next Parliament as he promised to do when he said last year that he intended to stand down.
Mr Blair's allies have been admitting privately for several weeks that he would almost certainly have to resign if the Labour majority fell below 60. In the view of many Blairites, 60 to 70 was a grey area which would leave the party leader severely weakened.
Yesterday, before the result was declared, some ministers close to the Labour leader said he would stay at Number 10 for as long as possible.
Other Blairites, though, have detected a change in the Prime Minister's mood during a difficult campaign.
"I think he'll go in about 18 months," said one loyal minister earlier in the week. "Whatever the outcome of the election, he's been badly damaged by the campaign."
Another Labour strategist admitted that Mr Blair's morale had been badly affected by the criticisms he had received from voters on the stump.
"Tony has been shocked by the level of hostility to him personally in the run-up to polling day. No one can know what effect that will have."
However long Mr Blair decides to stay in Downing Street, the reduction in the size of Labour's parliamentary majority will make it much more difficult for him to do what he wants.
The Government will struggle to get controversial legislation, such as proposals to introduce identity cards, on to the statute book now that the number of Labour MPs has been reduced.
Mr Blair may find it hard to implement "unremittingly New Labour" reforms of the public services with a smaller and potentially more rebellious parliamentary party. This month's Queen's Speech is expected to include around 40 Bills.
These will put forward proposals to increase the role of the private sector in the running of state services, plans to create a points system for immigration, and measures to give parents more power to close down failing schools.
Several of these pieces of proposed legislation will be controversial with Labour backbenchers, who are likely to feel emboldened.
Mr Blair may also find it harder to assert his authority on a number of big policy issues, not dealt with in the Labour manifesto, which are due to come to a head in the next six months.
Adair Turner's review of pensions and Sir Michael Lyons's review of local government funding, both due to report before the end of the year, will provoke wide-ranging discussions about the future of savings and the fate of the council tax.
This summer, Labour intends to initiate a public debate on energy policy, which will consider whether the role of nuclear power stations should be increased.
At the same time the Government will consult voters about proposals to replace the road tax with a road pricing system, which would see motorists charged according to the distance they drive.
Hanging over the whole Parliament, meanwhile, will be the question of whether Labour will have to raise taxes again to fund its plans for the public services. Nobody knows whether the love-in between Mr Blair and the Chancellor will continue once the common goal of victory has gone, but the election result is likely to strengthen Gordon Brown's hand.
Most insiders believe that an understanding has been reached between the two on the future of the Government and of their own careers.
In return for the Chancellor's support, Mr Blair has signalled his intention to endorse Mr Brown to succeed him as Labour leader. The handover may come more quickly now.
Sorry to see you go Ivan, it's unfortunate that more folks don't appreciate the relationship between the UK and the US.
Hey Ivan,
When has a Brit backed down from a dim-witted loudmouth! Don't let those turkeys chase you off! Stick around! I've always liked your posts and love Britain and the Brits. In general, I usually read posts about Britain but rarely comment on them.
I think most Americans still feel a kinship for Brits. Don't let a few loudmouthed twits ruin your fun.
I'm sorry you're leaving. We'll miss your unique insight.
The wrong people are leaving; is there anything you can do about it?
Screw the idiots, stick around.
You are a beacon of light here, please do reconsider.
I heartily second that.
There is no need for an 'opus'--just take a break after the political season over there!
Can I have your stuff?
I understand you're reasons for leaving. I spent two and a half years stationed in England, at RAF Mildenhall a few years back and loved it. I will always hold a special place in my heart for Britain and her contributions throughout history. Please know that your posts were a big reason that I came out of lurker status and started posting here.
If you need to shake the dust of this place from your sandals, God Bless you wherever you go. If you decide to just take a break, that's cool too.
A lot of us are hoping you'll reconsider or return after some time away. Whatever you decide, go with God, FRiend.
MadIvan,
It's a terrible shame that you feel the need to leave, but I don't blame you one bit. FR is NOT the FRiendly place it was when this War got started. Some FReepers have gotten VERY free with hurling invective and that is unfortunate.
For the record, while I do not often comment to you, I always look for your posts and quite enjoy them.
Fair well!
Tiamat
(Just a Bronze-Age Gal, Trapped in a Techno World!)
How am I getting inflamed? I am saying that one way to improve civility on this board is for posters in a debate to call to task folks on their side of an issue when they are uncivil. It can be quite effective, I've done that many times in the past.
On that I agree. When posters try to flame me, I just ignore them.
At any rate, there are many posters who look forward to readings your posts but never thank you for your eloquent comments. Thank you.
Good luck to you and to the greatest Anglo-American alliance.
Buh-bye, Ivan. We hardly knew ya.
Thank you for your gracious apology much appreiciated, sorry if I am a little tetchy today but I was on that live thread last night and did spend quite a bit of time defending Britain.
I've always enjoyed your insight into what is going on over in the UK...
Please reconsider.
(And I don't always respond to your posts, but I read them whenever they appear on the threads I'm visiting.)
Come back after you've cooled off. Don't let the bastards bring you down.
Please.
I hope you reconsider. We have a few vocal retards at this forum, but I'd say the vast majority support strong US/UK relations and everyone knows that your pubs have way cooler names than ours.
Come on Ivan, you still have some friends here. I have lots of British online and actual friends (especially through a board for a British car I used to have) and don't want to see another walk away. Just hang in there.
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