Avian Flu Surveillance Project

Various ^ | May 9, 2005 | Vanity

[Dog Gone]

Some folks suggested that we begin a thread similar to the Marsburg Surveillance Project for monitoring developments regarding Avian Flu.

The purpose is to have an extended thread where those interested can post articles and comments as this story unfolds.

If we're lucky, the story and this thread will fade away.

[Judith Anne]

Thank you very much, EH. I agree, there is priceless information here.

The organization of the information is strictly chronological, which could be an important resource writing the history of the beginning of the next pandemic...

[redgolum]

Good info, thanks.

The cases in Turkey worry me alot. There is more "official" ones there than any place else.

[EternalHope]

A thread with information and comments that should be cross referenced to THIS thread is here:

Red Alert for Bird Flu: Third Child Dies, Nine More Positive

The location of the outbreak is in Turkey, and the info covers much more than the title suggests.

[Oorang]

07jan06

ANKARA -- A third child from the same family has died of bird flu at a hospital in eastern Turkey.

About 25 people were being treated for possible bird flu symptoms early yesterday as health and agriculture authorities tried to manage more outbreaks across the east of Turkey.

Most of the sick came from the town of Dogubayazit, around 200km from Van, the last large town in Turkey before the Iranian border.

Hulya Kocyigit, 11, from Dogubayazit, died only a day after her 15-year-old sister, Fatma Kocyigit, succumbed to the disease on Thursday. Their brother Mehmet Ali Kocyigit, 14, died on Sunday.

Another 25 to 30 people had come in for blood tests and had received medical care and left; one was on life support, the hospital official said.

New bird flu cases were detected in five areas in eastern and southeastern Turkey, and authorities have culled 7000 fowl in those areas, Agriculture Minister Mehdi Eker said. "This is a serious problem," he added.

According to reports, the Kocyigit family took their fowl inside the house when temperatures fell at night and killed and ate the chickens when they got sick.

http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,17747480%255E663,00.html

[Oorang]

Just a FYI concerning large gatherings of people and the potential for spreading H5N1 in Turkey.

The religious holiday of Kurban Bayrami is celebrated in Turkey this year in just a few days, 10-11-12-13 January 2006. Bayrami is a four-day festival when sacrificial sheep are slaughtered and their meat distributed to the poor.

Info on Kurban Bayrami (from the link below):
Eid-ul-Adha, Kurban Bayrami in Turkish (the "Feast of Sacrifice") is the great festival of Islam. It is also known as Baqri-Eid (the "Cow Festival") because its most important feature is the sacrifice of an animal (cow, goat, sheep, or other appropriate beast) in commemoration of the ram sacrificed by Abraham in place of his son. In Muhammad's time a camel was usually the animal sacrificed. The command to perform sacrifices is given in Surah 22.36 and although no specific day is fixed in the Qur'an the sacrificing of animals was already practiced on the last day of the pilgrimage by the pre-Islamic Arabs and the institution was duly retained. A special prayer, similar to the Eid-ul-Fitr prayer, is also offered on this day before the animals are sacrificed.

Every Muslim home is obliged to offer a sacrifice on this day. The meat may be eaten by the family but a distribution of a generous share to the poor should also be made. As the two Eids (bayrams) are festive occasions, it is unlawful to fast on these days. Fasting on Eid-ul-Adha (Kurban Bayrami) would, in fact, defeat the whole object of the festival for food is to be eaten on this day with a cheerful heart in remembrance of God's bounty and provision for mankind.

http://www.allaboutturkey.com/bayram.htm

[little jeremiah]

FYI - here is the definitive Bird Flu thread, haven't seen it for a while since there hasn't been much in the news about the Bird Flu. But some updates have been added.

[unseen]

starting to look more and more like this flu will be hitting us next fall. I for one am not surprised but the sudden outbreak of human to human transmission in Turkey. Turkey is the first FREE country that has been exposed to the h5n1 virus thus they are not covering it up like China, Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Russia. So the human to human transmission ongoing in Turkey is not new per se just being reported in the clear for the first time IMO.

[Boundless]

AP: WHO: Deaths in Turkey Were From H5N1 Flu
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060107/ap_on_he_me/bird_flu

"The Turkish victims' doctor said the three children
probably contracted the illness by playing with dead chickens."

No solid indications of human-to-human yet.

[unseen]

10 people in the family caught this virus, they were admitted into the hospital at different times. I don't think all ten where playing with dead chickens over a course of days. One or two might have caught it from the dead chicken but the rest surely caught it from the others. This cluster screams Human to human transmission those who continue to believe the WHO statements are beyond gullible.

[TheLion]

From what I have read, you can't deduce human to human transmission with the facts coming out of Turkey.

Looks like bird to human transmission going on here.

[mdmathis6]

Nahhh...just be embarrassed(lol just kidding)

[unseen]

Maybe this will change your mind...


10 Member Familial Cluster in Turkey Raises Pandemic Concerns

Recombinomics Commentary
January 6, 2006

As H5N1 bird and human outbreaks spread across Turkey, the initial clusters provide compelling evidence that H5N1 spread to humans has become more efficient. Although disease onset dates have not been released for most patients, media reports provide somewhat of a chronology of admission dates for the Ozkan family. The admission dates, names, and ages of family members are:

January 4

Hatice (15)
Aysegul (9)
Yusuf (3)

January 5

Rumeysa (1)
Mehmet (13)
Ahmet (11)
Mustafa (6)

January 6

Refica (33)
Hakan (15)
Rukiye (?)

The disease onset dates for the first three family members admitted would be most useful, because it is likely that there was a delay between disease onset and admission. The other seven family members probably developed symptoms closer to their admission date, because the first three family members had already been hospitalized and the news of the other cases from the same village was likely known.

The 10 family members, if confirmed to be H5N1 positive, would double the previous number of confirmed H5N1 patients from the same family, which was a family of five from Haiphong in March of 2005.

More details on the clinical picture, including disease onset dates, would be useful, but this large cluster, coupled with the clustered nature of the other patients admitted to the same hospital in Van, indicates H5N1 transmission to humans has become more efficient.


http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01060604/H5N1_Turkey_Cluster_Ozkan.html

or this:

Large and frequent familial clusters signal efficient H5N1 transmission, either from a common source or human-to-human transmission. Information on disease onset dates would help distinguish the two possibilities, but the clusters indicate transmission to humans is efficient, regardless of source.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01060602/H5N1_Turkey_Clusters.html

or several stories from China and Indonesia. Family Clusters, geographic cluster(Indonesia zoo), and work place clusters all point to a H2H pathway. While we have been lucky to some aspects most of these cluster pathway do not seem very efficient in spreading that appears to have changed in Turkey. Yet in a previous post I stated that all news from closed societies like China and Vietnam should be suspect. They will not tell you the whole truth due to economic and geopolitical reasons. thus with this virus you must be able to put 2 and 2 together to get 5 due to the fact that key pieces of informant ion is missing. Large family clusters, very quick bursts of infection point to H2H transmission. What I would like to ask is what it will take for the Who to acknowledge the H2H transmission. Looking at their statements nothing short of a full blown epidemic will convince them that H2H transmission is occurring and by then it is too late to stop the pandemic.

[TheLion]

"transmission to humans has become more efficient"

I know the potential problem, all too well. Apparently H5N1 has been changing....apparently easier to infect humans.

This is not proof of human to human transmission....of which I wish they would figure out.

[unseen]

Agreed not 1005 prove. However, you can have H2H transmission and not have a major epidemic. the transmission could be inefficient, requiring close contact, it could be spread by bodily fluids. H2H transmission does not need to be airborne nor does it need to be quick or rapid or epidemic causing. One of the keys to showing H2H transmission is different onset dates. This shows a cause and effect. Different onset dates show that while the first case was a bird 2 human transmission from eating a dead chicken say the next case three days later or a week later has a good chance of being due to h2h transmission. Looking at the 3 dead children in Turkey. Not all children died the same day nor did they go to the hospital the same day nor did all the 10 family members get sick the same day. So playing with a dead chicken on one day can not account for the wide range of onset dates the only conclusion is that the virus had a constant source to the family and each person subcummed to the virus at different dates due to differences in the immune systems or the virus was passed in some way from H2H as one got sick the next was infected. With the number of infected people in the region growing in an exponential way I think it is clear that a H2H agent is thebest fit to the evidence.

[BobS]

From personal experience, I know Bird-Brain Flu infects 50% of the human population as it is now. Can it infect wild hoot-owls and California Condors- you know, those big, colorful birds that have 6 foot wingspans that coast a few hundred feet up and make very loud noises when you get close to their favorite dumpster?

Coyotes have more class. They dine on rabbits. Not rats and mice. And they silently take what they need away with them. No flu possible with organically grown rabbit!

Just wondering if this virus is spread by birds that eat trash.

[unseen]

as of now the major spreading is done by the migratory birds. Which in turn infect the local bird population. there has been reports of H5n1 infecting cats and other animals not just humans. If the bird flu hits CA i would imagine all birds would be at risk. however poultry and waterfowl seem to be the hardest hit birds as of now

[BobS]

I think the small birds would get it before the big, aggressive ones. And then I also saw large flocks of seagulls 15 miles inland, over the coastal mountains. Those are not small birds either, and they are wild and aggressive. They leave 3-4" diameter spots of shit on your vehicle. Nasty, filthy birds. For some reason, one came at me while I was coming home from work one day. I just slapped it away while it was airborne. Do birds get rabies?

[Boundless]

> What I would like to ask is what it will take for
> the Who to acknowledge the H2H transmission.

First, they have to rule out this sort of thing:
"The two infected boys were brought from the nearby city
of Beypazari, reportedly after handling gloves used by
their father to collect dead wild birds to turn them
over to the authorities."
from:
Killer Strain Of Bird Flu 'At The Door' Of Europe
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1554429/posts

But if it isn't H2H, it's still way to easily transmissible.

[unseen]

yeah I know so many kids that play with the father's work gloves after he was handling dead birds. sounds plausible to me. (sarcasm) In the meantime:

The three cases in Ankara were announced only hours after authorities in the capital set up bird flu centres at two hospitals.

Centennial University Hospital in Van, 1,000km east of Ankara, is already treating two cases of the H5N1 virus. About 40 people have been admitted at hospitals with bird flu-like symptoms.


Also Iran and Russia have closed their borders with Turkey.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f1f0bee2-8065-11da-8f9d-0000779e2340.html

and at the same time:

International bird flu experts have come to the eastern Turkish region of Van, to try to find out how quickly the deadly H5N1 strain is spreading.
The experts will advise the government how best to fight the disease.
Our correspondent says the three people who tested positive in Ankara come from a town about one hour's drive from the city.

It is not clear how they could have contracted the disease, although there were reports of ducks in the town having the virus.


The WHO has attempted to play down fears of the disease, as Turkish officials sought to defend themselves from accusations they were slow to act. Officials have now asked residents to dig pits and bury their own birds.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4593892.stm

or how about this:

Bird Flu Reports Multiply in Turkey, Faster Than Expected

http://www.nytimes.com/glogin?URI=http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/09/international/europe/09flu.html&OP=43601e06Q2F(jQ5Ea(IQ3B_HfQ3BQ3BQ3AQ2B(Q2BEEv(EQ51(E,(FLQ3AQ5EfLWQ3AFQ3BLW-(Q5EwfQ3BkQ5E(E,M-wNQ3DQ3Ad- But be that as it may I'll stick with a couple kids playing with their dad's work gloves it is so much more believable than say hmmmmm that the bird flu is spreading at an alarming rate within Turkey and that it is either a) way more efficient or b) spreading from H2H or possibly both a and b. But by saying this the WHO and the EU and the Turkey government would cause a panic, the Turkey stock Market will tank on Monday etc so let's just stick with the little tykes playing with the glove story it is so much better for the senses don't you think.

[xVIer]

Doctors test 21 for bird flu in Istanbul-report
09 Jan 2006 08:09:00 GMT
Source: Reuters
Background
Bird flu questions and answers

FACTBOX: Bird flu threatens to become global pandemic

FACTBOX: Cholera epidemic hits Guinea-Bissau

MORE

ISTANBUL, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Twenty-one people in the Istanbul area are in hospital amid fears they have bird flu, newspapers said on Monday, raising concern the deadly disease has spread to Turkey's commercial hub of 12 million people.

Health authorities expect to receive test results on the 21 people on Monday, the Milliyet daily said.

Istanbul province deputy health director Mehmet Bakar said initial tests on two dead chickens in the Istanbul district of Kucukcekmece indicated they were infected by the bird flu virus, the reports said. A third test was being carried out to determine the definitive diagnosis.

"21 people under suspicion (of having bird flu) have been kept in hospital under observation. Samples have been taken from these people and sent to the laboratory for examination," Bakar was quoted as saying in Star newspaper.

The first case of the virus jumping from birds to humans outside China and southeast Asia occurred last week in rural eastern Turkey, where three children from the same family died after contracting the H5N1 strain.


http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L09328779.htm

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This seems like its really bad...everyone here ready?