Posted on 05/09/2005 10:18:08 AM PDT by Dog Gone
Some folks suggested that we begin a thread similar to the Marsburg Surveillance Project for monitoring developments regarding Avian Flu.
The purpose is to have an extended thread where those interested can post articles and comments as this story unfolds.
If we're lucky, the story and this thread will fade away.
We probably will not see it until next flu season. Next fall early winter unless it comes by airplane quicker. No not ready at all.
Bird flu might be less deadly than feared
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8555
"But it is possible that many mild or symptom-free
H5N1 infections have gone undetected, meaning the
real fatality rate is lower."
Unfortunately, the study involved couldn't even be
used to support such a conclusion. And if it's true,
it's not clear whether or not there might be a
genetic predisposition factor.
Or they were misdiagnosed. For example: Buncha people in an area where dengue (or something else) is endemic get bird flu, some are tested for dengue and come out positive, surprise, it's dengue NOT bird flu, according to health authorities...
Most particularly in China.
WASHINGTON, Jan. 11 /PRNewswire/ -- In an effort to prevent an avian flu
pandemic in the United States, more than 1.6 million chickens per year will
now be tested for signs of the highly contagious and deadly H5N1 flu strain.
With a fatality rate of close to 60% among humans, the risk of a potential
global health crisis is being taken very seriously by public health and
government officials worldwide. In Avian Flu: Pandemic Threat and the Global
Response, America Abroad Media (AAM) brings together leading public health
experts to assess the dimensions of the avian flu threat and discuss how
globalization is impacting the world's state of preparedness.
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/01-11-2006/0004247301&EDATE=
Hopefully this will prevent the sudden explosion of cases like Turkey is experiencing
Is someone maintaining an Avian/Bird Flu ping list?
I would like to be added to it. - OB1
please make sure I am on it also.
Source: http://www.perssupport.nl/Home/Persberichten/Actueel?itemId=76652
TORONTO, Canada, March 13 /PRNewswire/ --
- Human Infection Still Very Limited but Lack of Preparedness and Planning Could be Devastating
Avian flu is spreading rapidly in the bird population, but it is still extremely difficult for humans to become infected.
According to Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist, BMO Nesbitt Burns, there is a good deal of misinformation triggering unnecessary fear and economic cost. Human infection generally requires direct exposure to sick or dead poultry. This is most likely in areas where backyard birds live in close contact with people - generally in parts of Asia, Africa and the Middle East. A human H5N1 pandemic, if it were to occur, would likely be triggered in the emerging world, rather than in Europe or North America.
In her report titled The Avian Flu Crisis: An Economic Update, Dr. Cooper explains that, unlike other natural disasters or terrorism, pandemics are prolonged and pervasive, so the net economic loss is substantial and extended. She states that an avian flu pandemic would lead to considerable supply and demand effects. Widespread absenteeism and trade disruption would dominate the supply-side effect, and social distancing and fear would initially increase the demand for essentials such as non-perishable food, water, medical supplies and health-care services, but reduce the demand for virtually everything else.
Global health-care systems would be running beyond surge capacity. Shortages of key medical equipment, supplies and trained personnel would be likely. And we could suffer prolonged outages of power and utilities and disruptions in government services. Preparation is the key to managing such debilitation, says Dr. Cooper.
"Government, business, individuals and public health offices must further refine and develop continuity and preparedness plans and test and retest these plans as well as revise them as the situation changes," she urges.
Dr. Cooper explains that global economic interdependencies and the importance of China in commodity markets and in exports of low-priced goods increase the potential for economic disruption from a human pandemic. So does the prodigious volume of international trade and travel. Supply chains are now global and inventories are managed on a just-in-time basis. Dr. Cooper suggests that the meaningful economic slowdown in Asia that would result from pandemic would markedly reduce the demand for commodities and industrial materials, driving prices downward. This would have a particularly negative impact on commodity-producing countries like Canada.
People cannot contract H5N1 by eating fully cooked chicken and poultry products. Nevertheless, according to Dr. Cooper, the poultry industry is already taking a big hit, especially in Europe. Knock-on effects will manifest for industries including poultry-feed growers, poultry processors, grocers, and restaurants, especially those specializing in chicken. In the US, the US$30 bln poultry industry has already suffered, as exports dropped 28 in December and there are concerns that a steeper drop is forthcoming.
In addition to the poultry industry and its ancillary businesses, immediate losers would be tourism, travel and transport sectors, the hospitality industry, public transportation, life and health insurers, theatres, casinos, sports facilities, spectator sports, religious facilities, convention halls, restaurants, retailers of nonessential goods, and providers of nonessential services or those that could directly spread disease such as dentists and hairdressers.
Dr. Cooper's economic model predicts that a mild pandemic would reduce annual global GDP growth by 2 percentage points from what it would otherwise be. A severe pandemic, similar to the 1918 Spanish flu, would reduce global GDP growth by 6 percentage points (again, from prevailing growth rates). She considers the results to be "low-ball" global estimates as the economic model assumes all countries are impacted equally. Most likely, the number of countries suffering more than the US will probably be larger than the number of countries faring better - but even that is uncertain.
If there were a cytokine storm (as in the severe flu virus of 1918), where the immune system attacks not only the virus but damages internal organs and tissue, pregnant women and 15-to-40 year olds would suffer the highest case fatality rate. Dr. Cooper notes many experts suggest that modern health systems cannot handle acute cases of a cytokine storm today much more effectively than they could in 1918, even in fully equipped and fully staffed modern intensive care units. "The hardest hit group would be the young, most productive and reproductive members of the population," says Dr. Cooper.
This would have a lasting impact by reducing birth rates and aging an already aged population, exacerbating economic underperformance for years to come, and increasing already excessive demands on pensions and the health-care system. No one can accurately predict the characteristics of the particular mutated virus strain that would cause the pandemic or how these characteristics would evolve over time. "It's important to know, though, that even with a severe pandemic, roughly 99 of the world's population would survive, and travel and trade would recommence as economic activity rebounds." concludes Dr. Cooper.
The full report is accessible at: www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/reports/20060313/report.pdf
Have you noticed the story on the China coverup of bird flu and the increased incidence in various countries this month?
I have been following very closely the acceleration of bird flu cases (in birds) spreading rapidly into Europe, Africa, Russia, and the Middle East. Most articles I see regarding the USA anticipate seeing the first cases appear in Alaska in a matter of the next 3-6 months due to the spring migration. They expect it to work its way from Alaska to Washington, Oregon, California in the months following.....but at this point it's still speculation.
The best article I've seen recently is one posted by blam last week. It has more details than I've seen in 99% of all other articles. The article is located at Bird Flu: It Just Continues To March. It's definitely worth reading.
If you come across anything, please post it. - OB1
Thanks. The article was originally identified to me by Trident/Delta. I've posted a link to the original thread below:
If you want on/off this Avian Flu ping list, please let me know. Have a great Friday. - OB1
Bird-Flu Pandemic Would Likely Start in California
03.30.06, 12:00 AM ET
Source: Article
THURSDAY, March 30 (HealthDay News) -- If a bird-flu pandemic does hit the United States, it may well start in California and spread across the country in just two to four weeks.
And the best way to slow its spread would be to have workers stay at home.
That's the scenario drawn from results of a computer model created by researchers at the U.S. National Institutes of Health's Fogarty International Center. And while the results of that computer model should be interpreted with caution, it is based on data from ordinary flu epidemics for the last three decades, said study author Dr. Mark A. Miller, associate director for research at the center.
"The unique feature of this model is that it challenges conventional wisdom, which says that flu is spread by children bringing it back to the household," Miller said. "That may be true at the household level, but regionally it is spread by adults."
That's why measures to keep people at home could slow the spread of infection, Miller said. Another finding in the study is that states with large populations, such as California, are more likely to reach epidemic levels of the flu at the same time than less-populous states, where transmission tends to be more erratic, he said.
So California, the most populous state, would be the most logical place for a pandemic to start, Miller said. Another factor pointing toward California is that bird -- also called avian -- flu is expected to arrive from Asia, he said.
As for the speed of spread, the estimate is based on ordinary epidemics. "What we see is that epidemics with more pathogenic viruses spread more quickly, two to four weeks versus five to seven weeks for less pathogenic viruses nationwide," Miller said.
The findings appear in the March 31 issue of the journal Science.
The Fogarty researchers used epidemiological data on seasonal flu epidemics that have occurred yearly in the United States since 1972. They connected that information with data from the Census Bureau and the federal Department of Transportation, looking at variations in yearly epidemics from state to state and links with local flows of people to workplaces.
Bird flu is pathogenic, but it does not yet spread easily from person to person; close exposure to an infected bird is needed to cause a human infection. The danger will come when, and if, a mutation makes human-to-human transmission easy.
Since 2003, the H5N1 bird flu virus has been detected in 45 countries in Africa, Asia, and Europe. More than 100 people have died after coming into contact with infected poultry.
The model developed by the Fogarty researchers can go just so far in predicting what might happen if such a mutation occurs, Miller said. This model notably doesn't include previous pandemics, just ordinary epidemics, and a pandemic might have different characteristics, he said.
Still, the model can help plan for ordinary, predictable epidemics by showing how they start and spread, Miller said. It's also not the first of its kind, he said: "We did a similar model to explain the spread of measles."
That's interesting, but it doesn't really make much difference. All flus eventually spread to the entire population and where it first made a foothold becomes only a historical curiousity.
I don't think anybody would suggest that it could be contained to California if it strikes there first.
Agreed. I just posted it because a number of articles have indicated that the anticipated first confirmation of infected birds is likely to arrive in the coming months in Alaska, and from there down the flight paths into Washington, Oregon, and California. Granted it would still have to mutate into H2H transmission. However, if the H2H strain were to develop elsewhere, it could get a foothold first whereever the airlines carry the first transmissible cases.
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