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HOW WE WOULD FIGHT CHINA
LA NUEVA CUBA ^ | June 2005 | Robert D. Kaplan

Posted on 05/10/2005 6:11:01 PM PDT by hedgetrimmer

The Middle East is just a blip. The American military contest with China in the Pacific will define the twenty-first century. And China will be a more formidable adversary than Russia ever was

For some time now no navy or air force has posed a threat to the United States. Our only competition has been armies, whether conventional forces or guerrilla insurgencies. This will soon change. The Chinese navy is poised to push out into the Pacific—and when it does, it will very quickly encounter a U.S. Navy and Air Force unwilling to budge from the coastal shelf of the Asian mainland. It's not hard to imagine the result: a replay of the decades-long Cold War, with a center of gravity not in the heart of Europe but, rather, among Pacific atolls that were last in the news when the Marines stormed them in World War II. In the coming decades China will play an asymmetric back-and-forth game with us in the Pacific, taking advantage not only of its vast coastline but also of its rear base—stretching far back into Central Asia—from which it may eventually be able to lob missiles accurately at moving ships in the Pacific. In any naval encounter China will have distinct advantages over the United States, even if it lags in technological military prowess. It has the benefit, for one thing, of sheer proximity. Its military is an avid student of the competition, and a fast learner. It has growing increments of "soft" power that demonstrate a particular gift for adaptation. While stateless terrorists fill security vacuums, the Chinese fill economic ones. All over the globe, in such disparate places as the troubled Pacific Island states of Oceania, the Panama Canal zone, and out-of-the-way African nations, the Chinese are becoming masters of indirect influence—by establishing business communities and diplomatic outposts, by negotiating construction and trade agreements. Pulsing with consumer and martial energy, and boasting a peasantry that, unlike others in history, is overwhelmingly literate, China constitutes the principal conventional threat to America's liberal imperium.

How should the United States prepare to respond to challenges in the Pacific? To understand the dynamics of this second Cold War—which will link China and the United States in a future that may stretch over several generations—it is essential to understand certain things about the first Cold War, and about the current predicament of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the institution set up to fight that conflict. This is a story about military strategy and tactics, with some counterintuitive twists and turns.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: china; chinarussiaalliance; chinesecommies; coldwar; commies; communism; destroagain; internationalism; interventionism; militaryspending; miltarycapacity; neoconservative; putin; russia; socialism; southeastasia; un; unamerican; ussr; zeming
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...the effect of a single Chinese cruise missile's hitting a U.S. carrier, even if it did not sink the ship, would be politically and psychologically catastrophic, akin to al-Qaeda's attacks on the Twin Towers. China is focusing on missiles and submarines as a way to humiliate us in specific encounters. Their long-range-missile program should deeply concern U.S. policymakers.
1 posted on 05/10/2005 6:11:02 PM PDT by hedgetrimmer
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To: FlyLow; Semper Paratus; nickcarraway; Bald Eagle777; Iscool; ETERNAL WARMING; chemainus; Dat Mon; ..

FYI


2 posted on 05/10/2005 6:14:15 PM PDT by hedgetrimmer
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To: hedgetrimmer
How will we fight them? As you know, I have written about one potential scenario...and it does not start out pretty at all.

The Dragon's Fury

3 posted on 05/10/2005 6:14:23 PM PDT by Jeff Head (www.dragonsfuryseries.com)
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To: hedgetrimmer
If they are going to sink one of our ships, they better do it with a Democrat as President.

Sure would not want to have a factory in China if that happens. Bye Bye Money.
4 posted on 05/10/2005 6:15:24 PM PDT by microgood (Evolution is a Cancer on Conservatism)
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To: hedgetrimmer

If China decided to go to war with us we could just not buy the crap they make. They'd be broke in four hours.


5 posted on 05/10/2005 6:18:20 PM PDT by CzarNicky (The problem with bad ideas is that they seemed like good ideas at the time.)
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To: hedgetrimmer

Defend Taiwan and strengthen military ties with Japan.


6 posted on 05/10/2005 6:18:28 PM PDT by wk4bush2004
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To: Jeff Head
No nation has ever fought China with weapons and won. They can only be beaten from within (sound familiar ??)

1) Wreck the Yuan.

2) Impose 200% tariffs on all Chinese goods.

3) Support democratic reform with hard dollars.

4) Embargo all pro-chinese puppet states (south America)

5) Let the civil war take care of it's self.

7 posted on 05/10/2005 6:21:09 PM PDT by xcamel (Deep Red, stuck in a "bleu" state.)
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To: hedgetrimmer
The Chinese navy is poised to push out into the Pacific—and when it does, it will very quickly encounter a U.S. Navy and Air Force unwilling to budge from the coastal shelf of the Asian mainland.

Complete Nonsense.

Kaplan, meet Seawolf.

Before any Chinese vessel came within 500 miles of a US Carrier, it would end up scrap metal at the bottom of the sea. But long before any warships left China, they would be blocked by the smoking carcassus of Chinese Merchant Ships that tried to run our blockade.

For the flying things, meet AEGIS. You just cant escape, baby.

So what's left? Chinese subs? Oh please.

8 posted on 05/10/2005 6:21:44 PM PDT by Pukin Dog (Sans Reproache)
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To: hedgetrimmer

If they attack us, it's nuclear war.

Of course, judging from some of the boneheaded things the Chinese have done in the last 5 years, I don't discount that possibility.


9 posted on 05/10/2005 6:22:48 PM PDT by Brilliant
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To: microgood
The problem here (if it is a problem) is that we don't want to use nukes, becasue China can also devastate our homeland. But the ultimate deterrent has to be the nukes. Why should we let China destroy our fleet? Admittedly, it is preferable to be able to beat them in a conventional war as well. But the nuke deterrent kept us from going toe to toe with the Soviets.

My bottom line is Bush ought to be expanding our navy, as Reagan did.

10 posted on 05/10/2005 6:22:48 PM PDT by Williams
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To: hedgetrimmer
the effect of a single Chinese cruise missile's hitting a U.S. carrier

CVX will have laser CIWS.

11 posted on 05/10/2005 6:23:51 PM PDT by Gunslingr3
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To: xcamel
My feeling has been that we need to treat them (Red China) as Reagan treated the Soviets in the 80's...or the present day version of the same. Which is is essence what you have written.

In the series, I am trying to make the point that the current scenario and "Permanent Favorite Nation Status" lead, IMHO, to very serious war, where to start we fare terribly...although in my series, we ultimately triumph after unbelievable carnage.

12 posted on 05/10/2005 6:24:20 PM PDT by Jeff Head (www.dragonsfuryseries.com)
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To: hedgetrimmer
IMHO I don't think it would be much of a fight. I believe if you cut off the head of that "dragon", the body would not carry on the fight very long.
Take out the communist leadership, and I truly believe the other almost 1 billion Chinese long for freedom enough that the war would end rather quickly.
I don't know alot about the Chinese, but I assume theirs is not a volunteer army.
13 posted on 05/10/2005 6:25:21 PM PDT by rikkir (The Dems see their demise, and his name is Delay!!)
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To: hedgetrimmer
The Chinese have a paradox that they've yet to resolve. Communism and Capitalism are diametrically opposed to each other. As a result, they have far more internal problems than we do. And they refuse to address these. Corruption is endemic. The short-sighted policies concerning forced-abortion will haunt them big time. They are playing funny games with their economy.

The end result is that China may be little more than a hollow shell soon - if not now.
14 posted on 05/10/2005 6:26:30 PM PDT by Frumious Bandersnatch
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To: xcamel

6) Nuke them till they glow.


15 posted on 05/10/2005 6:27:25 PM PDT by DJ Taylor (Once again our country is at war, and once again the Democrats have sided with our enemy.)
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To: wk4bush2004

The Carter administration should have never sold out Free China in favour of Red China. Once again profits were far more important then freedom.


16 posted on 05/10/2005 6:29:03 PM PDT by M. Espinola (Freedom is never free.)
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To: hedgetrimmer

By cutting off all aid and trade with COMMUNIST China.


17 posted on 05/10/2005 6:30:11 PM PDT by BringBackMyHUAC
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To: hedgetrimmer

Fight? Our entire economy would collapse. Think Walmart, IBM, GM, Pepsi, Coca Cola, even our own soldiers' uniforms...Everything is made in China.


18 posted on 05/10/2005 6:31:21 PM PDT by velyrorenry
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To: hedgetrimmer

A Chinese cruise missile attack has to penetrate layer after layer after layer of fleet air defense to get to a US carrier.

It would only be psychologically damaging to the MSM. It would enrage and motivate the sailors.

And as the other poster wrote. "meet Aegis" ...

The greatest threat is the diesel subs. They might get off one lucky snap shot before they died.


19 posted on 05/10/2005 6:34:30 PM PDT by Blueflag (Res ipsa loquitor)
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To: wk4bush2004

The more important part of the equation is the "Will to Win" at home.

The Military will step up to the plate.

The Media on the other hand probably already has Chinese type plate and will never miss a day of publication, (Ads sold and everything) can't be enough wrong with the USA to suit them.

True atrocities have yet to be reported by the MSM and that works very well for those that commit atrocities, we haven't the stomach for what mankind is capable of, has committed and will commit in the future. If you project current news bias without much imagination, it will be illegal to arrest a Terrorist until after they blow themselves up.

Hey it's my rant I can say what I want.
TT


20 posted on 05/10/2005 6:35:43 PM PDT by TexasTransplant (NEMO ME IMPUNE LACESSET)
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To: Pukin Dog
This scenario is utter nonsense. Our subs would literally sink every Chinese ship that is blue water capable within 5 minutes. We would have total air superiority within a week. The next generation artillery that Rummy cancled the Crusader for would leave their tanks smoldering ruins. It would be a massacre from that point forward.

This holds up for the next 20 years. Then where are they going? By then the Japanese will be up to speed, the Taiwanese and South Koreans are tough as nails, the Indians (who have a surprisingly decent navy), and the Eastern Europeans will have caught up and have forward NATO deployment bases. The Chicomms will collapse by then.

If they were smart, they would strike now while we are preoccupied in the midle east and before the Japanese ramp up.

21 posted on 05/10/2005 6:36:17 PM PDT by MattinNJ (Stop voter fraud-enact voter ID cards with photos w/ magnetic stripes that prevent multiple voting)
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To: velyrorenry

Including our food.

Garlic, apples, honey, and shrimp are a few of the products where the Chinese now dominate our food market. Their adversarial trade policies and our "free trade-lower all tariffs" no matter what the cost global trade mantra is putting us in a very insecure position.


22 posted on 05/10/2005 6:36:32 PM PDT by hedgetrimmer
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To: hedgetrimmer

So they beat us at sea, so what? Just wait until they step on our soil.


23 posted on 05/10/2005 6:36:51 PM PDT by opinionator
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To: Pukin Dog
If Chinese are studying math, physics and science while our own generation is studying sexual perversion...and if China is a creditor nation while we are a debtor nation...and if China is bigger than us...why wouldn't they kick our asses in a few years?

Of course, what do I know? I'm just a has been, Reagan era military analyst. (But I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night!)

24 posted on 05/10/2005 6:37:10 PM PDT by The Duke
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To: wk4bush2004
Defend Taiwan and strengthen military ties with Japan.

I agree. Japan and Taiwan need nuclear weapons too.

25 posted on 05/10/2005 6:37:11 PM PDT by Paul_Denton (Get the U.N. out of the U.S. and U.S. out of the U.N.!)
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To: hedgetrimmer

we'd be looking for a "peaceful solution" right away. Imagine every CEO with hundreds of billion$ invested in China calling the WH and the Congressmen.


26 posted on 05/10/2005 6:38:59 PM PDT by velyrorenry
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To: Williams
My bottom line is Bush ought to be expanding our navy, as Reagan did.

I agree. Instead of decommissioning SSBNs we should be building MORE. And with more nuclear warheads for them too.

27 posted on 05/10/2005 6:39:20 PM PDT by Paul_Denton (Get the U.N. out of the U.S. and U.S. out of the U.N.!)
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To: opinionator

They don't need to, they have the neutron bomb, we don't because Carter thought is was too dangerous.


28 posted on 05/10/2005 6:39:20 PM PDT by hedgetrimmer
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To: hedgetrimmer

EMP them over the eastern seaboard, and let the quite self-sufficient country folk do the civil war work for us. Don't forget SDI is working its way into Japan quickly.


29 posted on 05/10/2005 6:40:55 PM PDT by struggle ((The struggle continues))
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China will try to destroy our agriculture, and hence our economy, and make us dependant on them. They will use every dirty trick imaginable in biological and economic warfare--and some unimaginable.

And they're off to a good start.


30 posted on 05/10/2005 6:41:16 PM PDT by Poincare
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To: Jeff Head
boasting a peasantry that, unlike others in history, is overwhelmingly literate

A major potential weak point...

IMO, If we'd maintain and tighten our hold on near Earth orbit and the moon itself, we'd have far less to worry about.

31 posted on 05/10/2005 6:41:25 PM PDT by Axenolith (This space for rent...)
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To: velyrorenry
Fight? Our entire economy would collapse.

They have more to lose than we do. China is NOT even our biggest trading partner. It is Canada that our nation trades most with.

32 posted on 05/10/2005 6:41:40 PM PDT by Paul_Denton (Get the U.N. out of the U.S. and U.S. out of the U.N.!)
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To: Frumious Bandersnatch
How quickly people forget that they've been at it for roughly 4000 years. They have an amazingly deep national memory, and have beaten, by assimilation, > 1100 separate invasions and wars.

Even the opium wars and boxer rebellion only involved about 12% of "china proper". The other 88% couldn't have cared less.

Only wholesale individual freedom will take china down from within.

G Khan is reputed to have said that to take on "china" as it was even then, was to be absorbed and consumed, and to be as one was that not even born.

33 posted on 05/10/2005 6:41:59 PM PDT by xcamel (Deep Red, stuck in a "bleu" state.)
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To: opinionator

Also, there are quite a few chinese on our soil already. And we know they smuggle guns in on the California coast. They are making friends with Venezuela and other leftist countries in South America, and they want to lock up Canada's oil export, which is one of our primary sources of oil. So many of our "free trader" corporations have such significant investment in China now, from all aspects it looks like they are winning.


34 posted on 05/10/2005 6:42:34 PM PDT by hedgetrimmer
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To: struggle

That sounds like a plan


35 posted on 05/10/2005 6:43:10 PM PDT by hedgetrimmer
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To: Paul_Denton

that maybe true, technically, but we will blink first. They aren't afraid of taking it to the edge. Think of DOW losing 1000 points the day after.


"They have more to lose than we do. China is NOT even our biggest trading partner. It is Canada that our nation trades most with."


36 posted on 05/10/2005 6:44:19 PM PDT by velyrorenry
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To: Frumious Bandersnatch

**The Chinese have a paradox that they've yet to resolve. Communism and Capitalism are diametrically opposed to each other. As a result, they have far more internal problems than we do.**

A monocultural, monoracial society is internally much more stronger than a multicultural, multiracial society as ours. As a result we have much more internal problems than the Chinese, irrespective of their "paradox." China understands America's internal problems, America either doesn't or the enemy within is hard at work to turn our country into another banana, multi-ethinic country. The latter is the truth.

As long as America's demographics change, and change for the worse, it will continue to isolate itself from the rest of the world.

Legal immigration, even more so than illegal immigration, is destroying the country our European forefathers build into the most powerful country in the world.


37 posted on 05/10/2005 6:45:15 PM PDT by Baraonda (Demographic is destiny. Don't hire 3rd world illegal aliens nor support businesses that hire them.)
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To: Paul_Denton

"I agree. Instead of decommissioning SSBNs we should be building MORE. And with more nuclear warheads for them too."

Why?

We had complete nuclear supremacy over Korea. Didn't prevent that war; didn't win it.

We had complete nuclear supremacy over Vietnam. Didn't prevent that war; didn't win it.

We had complete nuclear supremacy over Iran in 1979. Didn't keep them from taking our people hostage, nor did that supremacy free those hostages.

We could obliterate the Islamist world in an afternoon, no problem...but we don't.

Nuclear weapons are expensive to buy, really expensive to guard, and haven't done a damn thing for this country since 1945.

On the other side...

The USSR had complete nuclear supremacy over Afghanistan. Fat lot of good it did them, right?

The ChiComs have complete nuclear supremacy over Taiwan. Whole bunch of good it's doing them now, huh?


38 posted on 05/10/2005 6:45:52 PM PDT by BeHoldAPaleHorse
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To: CzarNicky

The chinese hold enough of o ur debt to stifle our economy and if it continues to buy our debt to shut us down without firing a shot.

RW


39 posted on 05/10/2005 6:46:49 PM PDT by reluctantwarrior (Strength and Honor, just call me Buzzkill for short......)
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To: Baraonda

"A monocultural, monoracial society is internally much more stronger than a multicultural, multiracial society as ours."

It is?

That explains why Japan won World War II, I guess.

"As long as America's demographics change, and change for the worse, it will continue to isolate itself from the rest of the world."

Define "worse."


40 posted on 05/10/2005 6:47:18 PM PDT by BeHoldAPaleHorse
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To: reluctantwarrior

"The chinese hold enough of o ur debt to stifle our economy and if it continues to buy our debt to shut us down without firing a shot."

What happens to China if we tell them "Fine, we're stiffing you?"


41 posted on 05/10/2005 6:48:18 PM PDT by BeHoldAPaleHorse
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To: reluctantwarrior
easily avoided by canceling the debt.
42 posted on 05/10/2005 6:50:21 PM PDT by CzarNicky (The problem with bad ideas is that they seemed like good ideas at the time.)
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To: The Duke
If Chinese are studying math, physics and science while our own generation is studying sexual perversion...and if China is a creditor nation while we are a debtor nation...and if China is bigger than us...why wouldn't they kick our asses in a few years?

I'm surprised you would ask such a thing.

The reason why no nation, ever would kick our asses, is because this is AMERICA, and as long as we have leadership willing to kick butt, we don't lose. We can hire the best from ANY nation to do the math that our kids cant do, if need be.

What we cant invent, we can buy.

Bigger does not mean better, unless the whole Chinese Army plans to swim to America. They would never get here on ships, or anywhere else important, because we have weapons that you cant see, reaching out and touching folks, while you cant touch ours. The thought that one of our Carriers could be hit by anyone is sheer madness.

There is no safer place to be on the planet, than somewhere within the protected zone of a US. Carrier Battle Group.

The bottom line, is that we wont wait to be attacked. China could not make a move without getting their toys blown up before they got to blue water.

43 posted on 05/10/2005 6:50:35 PM PDT by Pukin Dog (Sans Reproache)
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To: BeHoldAPaleHorse

It DOES prevent is a nuclear strike against OUR nation as well as prevent INVASION. Which is exactly what the ChiComs would do if we did not have a nuclear deterrant. The ChiComs will not invade Taiwan because one they are trained and equipped by us and two, even today there is the distinct possibility that both Taiwan and Japan have the bomb or could have them overnight. The Arab League has never attacked Israel since they got their nuclear arsenal. The palestinians do.


44 posted on 05/10/2005 6:51:38 PM PDT by Paul_Denton (Get the U.N. out of the U.S. and U.S. out of the U.N.!)
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To: Paul_Denton

The palestinians only attack because of soft leadership in Israel but one day they will pay for their attacks.


45 posted on 05/10/2005 6:53:25 PM PDT by Paul_Denton (Get the U.N. out of the U.S. and U.S. out of the U.N.!)
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To: Gunslingr3

such as free-electron lasers


46 posted on 05/10/2005 6:53:42 PM PDT by David1
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To: BeHoldAPaleHorse

Nukes were never meant to be used against smaller nations. They were designed as a deterrent against the Soviet Union, and in that regard they worked very well.


47 posted on 05/10/2005 6:54:01 PM PDT by WestVirginiaRebel (Carnac: A siren, a baby and a liberal. Answer: Name three things that whine.)
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To: Paul_Denton

"It DOES prevent is a nuclear strike against OUR nation as well as prevent INVASION. Which is exactly what the ChiComs would do if we did not have a nuclear deterrant."

OK. So you're first talking about deterrence. Minimal deterrence seems to do the job very nicely--no one's lobbed any nukes at China, and they have a pretty small arsenal for a supposed major power. So, on that count, there's still no argument to be made for a larger nuclear arsenal.

As for preventing an invasion--that's what the Navy's supposed to do by commanding the ocean, isn't it? And how are the ChiComs supposed to invade America, anyway?

"The Arab League has never attacked Israel since they got their nuclear arsenal."

Actually, they did in 1973--and damn near succeeded, too.


48 posted on 05/10/2005 6:55:26 PM PDT by BeHoldAPaleHorse
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To: WestVirginiaRebel

"Nukes were never meant to be used against smaller nations. They were designed as a deterrent against the Soviet Union, and in that regard they worked very well."

By that argument, there is absolutely no need for the US nuclear arsenal. Please rethink your ideas a bit.


49 posted on 05/10/2005 6:56:18 PM PDT by BeHoldAPaleHorse
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To: Baraonda
"A monocultural, monoracial society is internally much stronger as ours..."

You know, there was an Austrian paperhanger who felt exactly the same way.

50 posted on 05/10/2005 6:58:22 PM PDT by WestVirginiaRebel (Carnac: A siren, a baby and a liberal. Answer: Name three things that whine.)
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