Posted on 05/19/2005 9:05:51 AM PDT by Tanniker Smith
I think I am going to put a bet on Going Wild since the handicapper for Daily Herald thought he had no chance at all to win. Since a lot of horses I hate usually win big I figure he has a better chance then my favorites. I may also place a bet on Scrappy T.(love the name and could pay for a lot of scooby snacks.)
Giacomo wins again! Go Johnny, I am pulling for ya.
Giacomo is still improving and he is a closer, I like Giacomo. Good point about how under rated the Calf colts are. Even after the Derby win Giacomo is still being dissed by the handicappers. Go Giacomo, you can do it!
okay I will also give Giacomo a chance. He has been doing some pretty good workouts and I want to see if we can have a triple crown this year.
I don't think the pace will be fast enough for Giacomo to win this.
There are certain fractions a thoroughbred horse can run, FOR A LONG TIME without fatiguing.
Have you ever ran track in High School or do you jog alot? Every living animal (including human beings and horses) has their own "peak" speed or exertion point where when they hit it, they tire quickly!
I can run 3 minute 1/2 miles for an hour!.. But if I try to run my first half mile in 2 minutes 30 seconds, I am well past my exertion point.. I can no longer maintain that 3 minute 1/2 mile pace!! My conditioning won't allow it.
There's a curve there, where the faster I run past 3:00 minutes, the faster I will tire.
Horses are just like this. Depending on the track surface, The Grade 1 thoroughbreds you see can run :47 second 1/2 miles for miles and miles and miles without tiring a bit.. and they have almost as much energy available in the tank as the horse behind them who ran the 1/2 mile in :48, but the horse who just ran the :47 has a 5 length lead and is barely worn out at all.. He's only jogging.
When you start getting these horses down to :46 and :45 seconds (Derby was 45 1/5th, anyone within 4 lengths was running under :46), they tired very rapidly. The second 1/2 mile was ran in :50 SECONDS!!
Giacomo was more than 15 lengths (about 3 seconds) off this pace.. he only ran a :48 in the first half, he's still fresh.
Now, in the Preakness.. If everybody runs a :47 or :48 to open the race.. Giacomo doesn't have a prayer. If Giacomo doesn't challenge that pace, he's running :49 to open the race and everybody else is 10 length's ahead and at about the same fatigue level (remember, these horses can run :48 for several miles)
I gave Giacomo 10-1 in the Derby.. and it was a bet (Payout 50-1) I would give him 15-1 or 20-1 to win this race.. that's not a smart bet with a 6-1 payout.
And let's not forget this race is a little shorter also.
And your just as full of it as many of the ex "professional" gamblers on skid row. They know everything there is to know about horse racing, except how to keep money in their pockets.
I'm going to hold you to your 11 horse.
You can do all the handicapping in the world and the odds may benefit you in the long run, but if the horse you pick isn't in the mood to run that day, it's all for not. Secretariat could be running and it wouldn't matter. And that's the beauty of horse racing.
Absolutely.. You can't look at this game from an, "I'm going to pick all the winners" situation. You will lose far more often than you win.
You have to come up with a system or method that is accurate in determining the correct chances of each horse, and compare them to the odds being offered.
Also, betting these high profile races is not a good way to make money in this game.
When I was heavy into the game, I would play 3 or 4 races a day at the most.. Sometimes I'd scan an entire past performance book without finding a single opportunity to bet.
The key is discipline.
But after years of losing, and finally some years of winning.. My "Exertion Point" system I've come up with through alot of research (When I was a teenager, I'd spend hours and hours scanning books, and doing backstudies on racing, I was quite a loser eh), has held up pretty well when applied effeciently.
I've pondered starting a business and selling my figures or writing a book.. but it seems like much of a hassle. Maybe if I find some more time on my hand.
If Giacomo wins the Preakness, I am soooo there at Belmont (waaaaaaay out there over on the side of the crowd that will be packing the place ...)
Enjoyed your posts very much, but since John Shirreffs is my brother, my moeny is on Giacomo. Go Giacomo, good luck Johnny!
A very honest pace this time, :46 flat half mile... A bit faster than I hoped for though.. Too fast for High Limit to capitalize.. If they could get the first half in 46 3/5 or 46 4/5, High Limit probably wins.
But it was just slow enough Giacomo didn't have much of a chance.
Afleet Alex is a real tough horse. It's a shame he had such a horrible trip in the Derby, or else he would have had a real good shot at winning the Triple Crown.
Your post is the essence of intelligent gambling.
Pace is the reason that horses that tire at six furlongs, win at seven furlongs. For those horses, the slower early pace of a seven-rulong race is more suited to their best effort.
Do you remember Catmousam Road?
No. Was she a good horse?
Peter Fuller owned her back around 1972. She won a couple of stakes at Rockingham. He had another filly he used to run with her as an entrymate. Can't remember her name. Odie Clelland trained them, I think.
I read that John and his dad worked for Peter and I was trying to place the time frame. That would seem to be about right, no?
Alittle late, my dad kept a few of Peter Fullers mares at our farm in New Fields N.H. during the sixties. We also had our own horses that we trained and raced and the horses that Dad didn't think were race horses we showed. Dad great love was really jumping, not racing. We had some pretty good jumpers and John and I both won lots of ribbons on them.
Yep.. at 6 1/2 furlongs too.. I love betting 6, 6 1/2, and 7 furlong races. You can exploit the pace scenarios in those 3 races for incredible profits.
At 6 1/2, Closers can really kick some ass.. I've seen many great 6 furlong sprinters, run the 6 furlong fractions in a 6 1/2 furlong race, and they look like there dragging something that final 1/16th.
I look back on summers at Rockingham and realize I was in heaven then.
btt
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