Posted on 05/19/2005 9:05:51 AM PDT by Tanniker Smith
My wife and sister-in-law took home a lot of cash on the Derby (and they would've taken home a lot more if not for a little misunderstanding).
TS
From what i gathered everyone was wrong on the derby. The odds of a triple crown this year are pretty much nil.
It would be nice but I don't think Giacomo can do it. I don't think the short distance and tight turns in the Preakness suit him. I think he was mis-underestimated in the Derby and also his jockey had been in several previous Derbies so that had to help, too.
Now, I did think Bellamy Road would not handle the heavy traffic in teh Derby -- I liked Afleet Alex.
But -- what do I know. Could be a different horse wins each part of the Triple Crown this year.
Ping...
Giacomo came on strong at the end (he was 17th early on), but if this is shorther, that could be a problem. It makes him look better for Belmont, like I believe is 1-1/2.
TS
The Derby is 1 1/4 miles, 1/16 more than the Preakness.
This is a wide open race...Afleet Alex ran a tough race in the Derby and I think he will bounce
my picks are High Fly and Noble Causeway...1, 2
A couple of points: While the Preakness is 1/16 of a mile shorter than the Derby, the configuration of the race is the same, i.e., they start at the top of the stretch, make the long run through the stretch the first time, usually go single file, or at worst two-wide, around the first turn. Then, they straighten out on the backstretch and several horses make runs at the leaders. They enter the stretch with usually no more than four horses still in contention. The others have hit their stamina wall, in the same place or even earlier than the longer Derby.
Most of the horses in the Preakness will never run this far or farther again in their lives. It's a long distance in modern American racing.
The horses have been engaged in a war of attrition since February. Increasingly longer races are sapping their strength. Look for Afleet Alex, who lugged in late in the Derby, a sign of exhaustion, to be the surprise dull horse in this race. Closing Argument fought a long battle with Afleet Alex and may be similarly wilted as his trainer says he doesn't like running back in two weeks. High Fly showed his lack of ability at this distance in the Derby.
Giacomo wasn't asked to get in top condition until just before the Derby and bounded down the stretch and is happy and bouncing again. Similarly, Wilko was cranked up earlier and was running well in the Derby when bumped. Greeley's Galaxy got a bad start and was hustled forward too soon, running incredibly fast internal fractions. Scrappy T comes off a nice win in the Withers. Noble Causeway was dead-stopped just before the first turn in the Derby.
Giacomo-Wilko-Scrappy T-Greeley's Galaxy-Noble Causeway.
I could be wrong.
The Preakness is 1 3/16 miles. The Derby is 1 1/4 miles. The Belmont is 1 1/2 miles. The Preakness is the shortest of the three races.
I did cash a winning ticket on Giacomo in the Derby as well. He was a very logical pick, to me anyway.
You are correct, I was just being dumb today.
I'll take the 2 horse for the win, and hell would have to freeze over before GIACOMO wins another one.
bump
TS
He was a logical contender if you analyzed the race correctly.
The hot pace was a shoe-in. When you get rabbits in the race like Spanish Chestnut, it throws EVERYTHING out the window.. Anyone near that pace is meat.
Natural closers are all contenders, Doesn't matter who they are or how they've run.
The Southern California horses, who were spit on before the Derby, finished 4 in the Top 6, for another very logical reason that's been overlooked by "mainstream" horse racing handicappers who think they know the sport.
To win at horse racing you have to examine hundreds of variables and determine the REAL odds of each horse winning the race.
Giacomo was a gigantic overlay at 50-1 (overlay being chances were much better than the odds you were getting). With the pace scenario, I had his real chances at around 10-1.
If you are good at analyzing chances of horses to win (I got a big ego), you can quit your day job betting on 50-1 horses who are going to win one out of 10 times.
Sadly, this won't give me any trifecta unless I run to birthdays together or split the year into "9" and n.
TS
I think you're going to see a more honest pace in this race.
The hot pace last race will be sitting in jockeys minds and they won't get caught up in it this time.
Watch High Limit out of the 11 hole. He's a speed baller who runs his best when he's up front.. He's not very good at rating behind the leaders..
I expect him to get up front early, relax, and win this race wire to wire.. 12-1 morning line.
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