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Chinese dragon awakens (prompting fears that Beijing will attack Taiwan)
The Washington Times ^ | 6/26/05 | Bill Gertz

Posted on 06/26/2005 12:29:08 PM PDT by Halgr

(Snip)

China is building its military forces faster than U.S. intelligence and military analysts expected, prompting fears that Beijing will attack Taiwan in the next two years, according to Pentagon officials. U.S. defense and intelligence officials say all the signs point in one troubling direction: Beijing then will be forced to go to war with the United States, which has vowed to defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack. China's military buildup includes an array of new high-technology weapons, such as warships, submarines, missiles and a maneuverable warhead designed to defeat U.S. missile defenses. Recent intelligence reports also show that China has stepped up military exercises involving amphibious assaults, viewed as another sign that it is preparing for an attack on Taiwan. "There's a growing consensus that at some point in the mid-to-late '90s, there was a fundamental shift in the sophistication, breadth and re-sorting of Chinese defense planning," said Richard Lawless, a senior China-policy maker in the Pentagon. "And what we're seeing now is a manifestation of that change in the number of new systems that are being deployed, the sophistication of those systems and the interoperability of the systems." China's economy has been growing at a rate of at least 10 percent for each of the past 10 years, providing the country's military with the needed funds for modernization. The combination of a vibrant centralized economy, growing military and increasingly fervent nationalism has transformed China into what many defense officials view as a fascist state.

(Snip)

Energy supply a factor For China, Taiwan is not the only issue behind the buildup of military forces. Beijing also is facing a major energy shortage that, according to one Pentagon study, could lead it to use military force to seize territory with oil and gas resources.

(Snip)

(Excerpt) Read more at washtimes.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: billgertz; chicoms; china; taiwan; war; withclintonshelp
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1 posted on 06/26/2005 12:29:13 PM PDT by Halgr
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To: CHARLITE; tiamat

chicom ping


2 posted on 06/26/2005 12:32:25 PM PDT by King Prout (I'd say I missed ya, but that'd be untrue... I NEVER MISS)
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To: Halgr

"...could lead it to use military force to seize territory with oil and gas resources." Or just buy it up with all their Wal-Mart bucks!


3 posted on 06/26/2005 12:33:56 PM PDT by vger (freeping since '97!)
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To: Halgr

They will attack, and we won't do a darn thing about it. Maybe some sactions, but that's about it.


4 posted on 06/26/2005 12:34:23 PM PDT by vpintheak (Liberal = The antithesis of Freedom and Patriotism)
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To: vpintheak

I'm half expecting them to go into Siberia, a la Clancy's novel.


5 posted on 06/26/2005 12:39:19 PM PDT by Ingtar (Understanding is a three-edged sword : your side, my side, and the truth in between ." -- Kosh)
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To: vpintheak

Why would they bother attacking? Just declare Taiwan a blight and use Eminent Domain to buy it. The US government will support it.


6 posted on 06/26/2005 12:39:21 PM PDT by boofus
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To: Halgr

If they are building-up to acquire resources, then folks in eastern Russia and Southeast Asia should start getting nervous. The PRC wants the ROC for political/nationalist reasons. As for resources, the PRC has long had it eye on the rest of the continent of Asia and the western Pacific.


7 posted on 06/26/2005 12:40:26 PM PDT by Army Air Corps (Four fried chickens and a coke)
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To: King Prout
Thanks, King! I read this one very early this morning on the WA Times, and decided not to post it for 2 reasons: first, Bill Gertz, who is very professional in every way, always seems to draw the more dire conclusions about how "bad" everything is. I find his cheerless and dreary - and generally hope that he's wrong on most of his "sound-the-alarm" pieces.

Secondly, I declined to post it because of its sheer length. While it does present what appears to be a thorough analysis of China's overtly expansionist intentions, I generally try to avoid posting excerpts from articles which then turn out to be interminable, once the reader clicks on the link.

I agree, though, that this is not a subject to be ignored. China poses a giant quandary for America on many levels.

Thanks for the ping!

Char :)

8 posted on 06/26/2005 12:40:42 PM PDT by CHARLITE (I propose a co-Clinton team as permanent reps to Pyonyang, w/out possibility of repatriation....)
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To: Halgr
The 2008 Olympics are scheduled to be in China. There is no way the commies are going to do anything to upset the Olympics games going to Beijing in 08.
9 posted on 06/26/2005 12:40:51 PM PDT by Uncle Hal
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To: King Prout; Jeff Head

BTTT


10 posted on 06/26/2005 12:40:53 PM PDT by Squantos (Be polite. Be professional. But, have a plan to kill everyone you meet. ©)
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To: boofus

"Just declare Taiwan a blight and use Eminent Domain to buy it."

If this weren't so sad but true, it would be funny. ;-(


11 posted on 06/26/2005 12:42:01 PM PDT by Halgr (Once a Marine, always a Marine - Semper Fi)
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To: vpintheak
They will attack, and we won't do a darn thing about it. Maybe some sactions, but that's about it.

If the Chinese attack Taiwan during a democratic presidency, look for this country to go crying to the U.N. like a child running to its Momma after getting stung by a bee.
12 posted on 06/26/2005 12:43:40 PM PDT by reagan_fanatic (The theory of evolution is the great cosmogenic myth of the twentieth century - Michael Denton)
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To: Halgr
"The combination of a vibrant centralized economy, growing military and increasingly fervent nationalism has transformed China into what many defense officials view as a fascist state."

...some free business but most business and media controlled by the socialist state. Remember fascism in certain countries before WWII. Well, it's about time that we see more of the truth. ...more to come and more fascist states involved.
13 posted on 06/26/2005 12:47:06 PM PDT by familyop ("Let us try" sounds better, don't you think? "Essayons" is so...Latin.)
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Comment #14 Removed by Moderator

To: Halgr; GOP_1900AD; Uncle George; mudblood; AnimalLover; hedgetrimmer; John Lenin; AnnaZ; zzen01; ...

Golitysn's predictions are coming to pass in spades:

Taken from Anatoly Golistyn’s book “Perestroika Deception”, 1995 (pp. 149-151)

Memorandum to the CIA: March 26, 1992

GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIES OF RUSSIA, THE ‘COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES’ AND CHINA…

In an earlier Memorandum to the CIA this analyst explained the common Sino-Soviet strategy of convergence with the West and the intended exploitation for the purposes of this strategy of the new openings arising from the ‘reformed’ political structure of the former USSR and the emergence of the alleged ‘democrats’, ‘non-Communists’ and ‘independents’ who are running it.

The present assessment show how, because of Western ignorance of and confusion about the strategy underlying ‘perestroika’ and because of Western political and economic support for the so-called reform of the Soviet system, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) has been successfully installed and has begun to carry out concrete new geopolitical strategies within the framework of the long-standing overall Communist strategy of convergence.

These strategies are still being guided and coordinated by the same Soviet strategists who have simply shifted away from the use of the old worn-out ideology and the familiar but obsolete patterns, to the exploitation of geopolitical factors and of the new potentialities of the ‘reformed’ Communist system. The common feature of these geopolitical strategies is the manipulation and use of the ‘democratic’ and ‘independent’ images which the change in form from the USSR to the CIS and its individual members has provided so abundantly and the nature of which the West has, so far, failed to comprehend.

The following upgraded strategies may be distinguished:

THE FIRST STRATEGY involves the CIS and Russia in particular dealing directly with longstanding American allies like Germany and Japan and causing their allegiance to be shifted away from the United States towards economic and political alliance with the CIS and especially with Russia.

To this end Russia is exploiting American economic rivalry with Germany and Japan, together with the large-scale involvement of Germany and Japan in economic cooperation with Russia and the offer to them of lucrative market and investment opportunities in Russia. China can be expected to join in this campaign to steal away old American allies by concentrating on offering the Japanese various investment opportunities in China.

A SECOND UPGRADED STRATEGY involves the use of the new ‘independent’ Muslim states in the CIS to establish and develop economic and political cooperation with the fundamentalists in Iran and elsewhere in the Muslim world.

According to this assessment the much-advertised feud between the Armenians and the Azerbaijanis of Turkish descent in Nagorno-Karabakh may be a tactical ploy to involve Turkey, Iran and other Muslim countries in support of eventual alliance with Azerbaijan and other Central Asian Muslim states in the CIS. This strategy takes into account the growing power of the fundamentalists and the possibility of their gaining control over substantial oil reserves.

A primary objective of the strategy here is to achieve a partnership with the fundamentalists in Iran and Algeria and to replace the present American-Oriented rulers of Saudi Arabia with fundamentalists. The opening in Saudi Arabia of a Russian Embassy and the probable opening of Embassies by Muslim states of the CIS (read: Russian puppet governments) should be seen, not only as an attempt to extract a few extra Saudi Billions, but as part of an offensive to bring about a political reorientation in that country.

Chinese Muslims can also be expected to play an active role in promoting alliances with the fundamentalists. The supply of missiles to Iran by the Chinese should be looked at in the context of this strategy.

THE THIRD STRATEGY is to facilitate a shift of the emerging regime in South Africa from the Western sphere of influence towards close economic and political cooperation and alliance with the CIS using for this purpose old friendships with the leaders of the African National Congress and the South African Communist Party with which it is effectively merged. One can expect that the offensive to facilitate such a partnership will become more active and more visible than ever, after the ‘reforms’ in the CIS and South Africa have stabilized.

THE FOURTH STRATEGY is that of using and manipulating the changes in the former Soviet Union to bring about, in the longer run, radical changes in relations between the United States and Israel, in the political power structure in Israel itself, in Israel’s position in the Middle East and in world opinion towards Israel.

The fact that the new leaders in Russia have promised the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Germany, the Baltic countries and Poland, and that they are insisting on a seven-year term for the strategic arms reduction treaty being negotiated with the United States, are indications that the Russian strategists have their own timetable. This is not based on what is going to occur in the CIS according to the optimistic expectations of Western observers, but rather upon the Soviet estimate of the time needed for the strategies described above to take effect. The possibility that the United States will lose valuable allies during this period is not something new. There is nothing permanent in international relations. The Americans experienced this not so long ago when they “suddenly” lost Iran.

The vulnerability of the United States arises from the fact that its basic premises, assumptions and perceptions about the present and future Russia and the CIS are wrong. Where the United States sees golden opportunities, it is in reality facing traps set for it by the Soviet long-range strategists. The impact on the United States of the successful execution of these strategies would be devastating.

The loss of old allies and the loss of oil reserves, following the equally catastrophic loss of South Africa, would result in the re-emergence of the CIS and China as stronger adversaries, and in an ‘irreversible’ change in the balance of world power in their favor. The United States would be weakened and divided and the pressure for the impetus towards convergence of the CIS and China with the United States on Sino-Russian terms would be intensified.


15 posted on 06/26/2005 12:52:37 PM PDT by BringBackMyHUAC
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To: vpintheak
Wrong, we will unleash hell on them. Saddam believed falsely that we would do anything to stop his march into Kuwait, and there was no law saying we had to.

The 1979 Taiwan Protection Act: excerpts

(2) to declare that peace and stability in the area are in the political, security, and economic interests of the United States, and are matters of international concern;

(3) to make clear that the United States decision to establish diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means;

(4) to consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States;

(5) to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character; and

(6) to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.

(c) Nothing contained in this Act shall contravene the interest of the United States in human rights, especially with respect to the human rights of all the approximately eighteen million inhabitants of Taiwan. The preservation and enhancement of the human rights of all the people on Taiwan are hereby reaffirmed as objectives of the United States.

IMPLEMENTATION OF UNITED STATES POLICY WITH REGARD TO TAIWAN

SEC. 3. (a) In furtherance of the policy set forth in section 2 of this Act, the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.

(b) The President and the Congress shall determine the nature and quantity of such defense articles and services based solely upon their judgment of the needs of Taiwan, in accordance with procedures established by law. Such determination of Taiwan's defense needs shall include review by United States military authorities in connection with recommendations to the President and the Congress.

(c) The President is directed to inform the Congress promptly of any threat to the security or the social or economic system of the people on Taiwan and any danger to the interests of the United States arising therefrom. The President and the Congress shall determine, in accordance with constitutional processes, appropriate action by the United States in response to any such danger.

Take notice to the last sentence, "appropriate action by the United States in response to any such danger". Here is hoping that China doesn't miscalculate like Saddam Spider Hole Hussein
16 posted on 06/26/2005 12:54:10 PM PDT by Kuehn12 (Kuehn12)
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To: Kuehn12

See post #15


17 posted on 06/26/2005 12:55:30 PM PDT by BringBackMyHUAC
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To: Halgr

Welllllllllll, Doh!

Nice some people are waking up. I would that it were the ones who counted, however.

Sadly, the puppet masters have evidently decided that the USA's power must be removed in order for the world government to have unrivaled power.


18 posted on 06/26/2005 12:58:39 PM PDT by Quix (LOVE NEVER FAILS.)
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To: Halgr

Well, you know it would be the height of irony (and damn funny too) if Taiwan were to pony up enough cash to buy some of Kim Jong Il's nuclear warheads, mount them on some No-Dong missiles (also one of Kim's exports), and then inform Beijing "you wanna invade? go ahead - make our nuclear day!"


19 posted on 06/26/2005 1:05:17 PM PDT by Mad Mammoth
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To: Uncle Hal; All

==The 2008 Olympics are scheduled to be in China. There is no way the commies are going to do anything to upset the Olympics games going to Beijing in 08.

It seems they are already well on their way to upsetting the 08 Olympics:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1431099/posts


20 posted on 06/26/2005 1:05:45 PM PDT by BringBackMyHUAC
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