[flixxx]

I could not find this posted when I performed a search. Barone is frightenly smart when it comes to politics...hope he is right about the turnout issue for 2006.

[atlanta67]

it is possible that liberals have become so demoralized, they ownt vote...i wouldnt count on it however.


Does anyone know what Rove plans to do after 2008?

[Dan from Michigan]

I think Bush is irrelevant when it comes to gubenatorial or state level elections if he's not on the ballot. Even if he's on the ballot, coattails only really matter when it is a large win due to straight tickets.

In 98, coattails mattered since Engler beat Fieger by 25%. In 02, there were no coattails at all in Granholm's 4% win.

[McGavin999]

When this guy talks, I pay attention. He's probably the best analyst out there.

[Soul Seeker]

Barone is about the only one I will listen to concerning the breakdown of electorates, and forthcoming analysis. Election night he was particularly impressive, not being fooled by the exit polls. Breaking it down with fact.

[Sonny M]

Something to chew on.

The top 10 states that had the highest increases in voter turnout all went to Bush in 2004.

The bottom 10 states with the lowest increase in turnouts, 7 out of 10 of them went to John Kerry.

Including NYS which actually had a decrease in voter turnout in 2004 as compared to 2000.

I've heard cali had the same thing but couldn't verify that one.

[Once-Ler]

In Virginia, which does not have party registration, the only office for which both parties had contests was lieutenant governor. Some 169,000 Virginians voted in the Republican primary and 114,000 in the Democratic primary

It is a mistake to use primaries to extrapolate voter interest. In VA there was a primary for Republican candidates for Governor but the rat candidate was unopposed. This explains the greater Republican turnout. There was no compelling reason for rat voters to care about the primary because the top ticket was already decided for them.

If you look at the results for the Ohio state house district 57 (the only one where there was more than one candidate for both the rats and Republicans) you find the rat primary voters exceeded Republican primary voters. Does this mean the rats are all fired up or is district 57 a rat leaning district.

In 1996 Clinton ran unopposed for President on the rat ticket. He received 12,884 votes in the March 9, 1996 rat primary. Dole, Forbes, alexander, ect received 347,482 votes in the February 27, 1996 primary. Dole alone got over a 100,000 votes. I didn't look up if Clinton beat Dole in AZ, but I can guarantee that Dole didn't get 10 times more votes than Clinton...as the primary might have indicated to Barone.

[GVnana]

Can't go wrong with a Barone post.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Michael Barone *ping*

[EQAndyBuzz]

There was no contest in Dem primaries in NJ. Why would people turn out? They already knew that Corzine will win.