Skip to comments.Expert Analysis:Alan Peters: How to counter the newest Iranian Presidency
Posted on 07/05/2005 5:36:46 PM PDT by RaceBannon
The gentleman who wrote this article is an expert on Middle Eastern affairs, especially Iran. I have met the man online and have had his bona-fides confirmed: He is who he says, and knows what he knows.
I cant tell you more without giving away promised confidentiality, but I can personnaly assure the readers that he is an EXPERT on Iranian affairs and once worked in the government of the Shah of Iran.
Below is an analysis and suggestion of what just might work to destabilize the government of Iran and allow the ruling Mullahs to be overthrown.
His approach is not one that we Westerners would consider at first glance in the details, but those who pay attention to the histories of movements that overcame governments that were oppressive can see the likelihood of success. While any movement from the start sounds like a longshot, and is controlled by the inertia of the movements themselves, this plan is one of many that might work.
Those who are familiar with my website might reognize the name of the author as the man who compiled the evidence of Jimmy Carter's abandonement of the Shah, hastening the downfall of the Shah in 1979.
For some time now, nobody in power in the USA, nor in Europe seems to be able to think outside the box or even to set in motion anything to remove the clerics, who now threaten civilization, not just the USA and Western culture. But I'm not here to criticize, only to propose a viable solution with a still familiar yet creative box.
Specially in the light of a battered, no longer effective student or any other anti-Mullah movement in or out of the country nor any charismatic figure behind which those inside Iran can rally.
Proponents of using the Ukraine "Orange" revolution methodology have gone on record to suggest using "green" - THE COLOR OF ISLAM - as the Iranian Orange, so even ideas with some potential merit, though only if tailored down to minutia to fit the country and culture instead of a general concept that worked in a totally different environment and level or repression, appear to be "mis-thought" out in advance.
The recent "selection" of Ahmadi-Nejat as President of Iran has opened a door that wasn't there before - for removing the Mullah regime in several steps - (brevity for this posting prevents expanding much on headings but others can sit and expand on the concept portrayed here. I'd be glad to participate with any serious authorities who can get something done):
1. Get Rafsanjani out of there before they kill or arrest him for corruption, then isolate or kill him. Canada where he has large development interests offers other advantages, too, to center his forthcoming activities. (Tactical rather than strategic).
(Ignore Rafsanjani's call for unity inside Iran, he has no choice but to say this to stay in one piece).
2. Offer him support to contest the "election" result he recently lost and for him to form a "government in exile" to oppose the current regime (from his base in Canada). he is enough of a pragmatist to become a player with a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow offered him.
3. Link him up with the Mojaheddin Khalgh - MEK (currently designated a terrorist organization based on Clinton trying to appease the clerics) and thus provide Rafsanjani with a double approach and a motivated strike force for later entry back into Iran. A less than happy but still a practical "coalition" for both parties that can be expected to be conditionally accepted on a pragmatic basis.
Neither of these two can expect Western support otherwise. (Again details, advantages and drawbacks of the coalition require more space than can reasonably be used in this posting).
4. In return, promise USA (and to the extent possible Western) support if they quickly identify and REVEAL and once in power, drop all plans for nuclear sites and ambitions. (MEK will happily continue to do so). Russia will be miffed financially. But the nuclear advancement will stop, specially with MEK to ensure Rafsanjani plays it straight. And the consequent in-fighting that will scuttle covert plans.
5. After they do get into power, they will soon try to destroy each other as a matter of course - (or can be easily incited/encouraged to do so). Rafsanjani mullahs, even with the Reformists, cannot be the future of Iran, Neither can the MEK, which can muster an estimated 100,000 followers - boots on the ground inside Iran.
Individually neither group has enough strength, together they can rapidly sandblast the country clean for future generations and democracy. Neither truly supports the other to establish a durable co-operation.
6. In about two, maybe three years, vacuum up the debris and have a clean slate for future democracy in Iran with neither weakened "coalition" partner able to stop it. Probably the least blood shedding of any scenario and done by supporters of Rafsanjani and the MEK, neither of which are needed for the future of the country and thus do not need to keep their hands free of blood as would a Monarchy, or any other democratic movement.
Please notice simplicity of language (no effort to be erudite or a guru) and intentional lack of detailed exposition. Including how best to persuade 70-year old Rafsanjani to come on board (I doubt he will put up much resistance other than demanding monetary returns on projects he presently has for his family and heirs) and the MEK has already asked for a chance to govern Iran for six months before holding elections as their pre-condition.
I'm providing the strategy concept not the detailed tactics - though I could help furnish some of that, too. If nobody will think outside the box, here is a sufficiently "familiar" box within which to think and be successful. Even with this premature heads up to the enemy.
Want to bet they'll take the gamble to get into power despite knowing what the aftermath plan is?
The only serious fly in the ointment at this point might be the risk of President Putin of Russia deciding to later provide full Russian support for the Marxist Mojaheddin (and Fedayeen or various similar Iranian groups) and impede Western efforts to pull them out by the roots. The Soviets provided enormous support in 1979 to the MEK, which was the real instigator of the Khomeini revolution. (I was there at the time "before and after" till I was helped out).
By contrast the Ayatollahs and the fervent military Ahmadi-Nejat secular colleagues won't be removable in a matter of two or three years and Iran will have nuclear weapon capability, which will make future chances of removing them even more remote. NOt so with operation "sandblast" outlined above.
Alan Peters Independent Analyst (Reachable through Race Bannon)
Quite appropos for the above plan. It looks quite well laid out, but it has too many elements that just need one nice-sized wrench in the works to turn a latent situation into a Liberal's wetdream. And it seems quite reminiscent of the various CIA plots of decades past, many of which had the tendency of prematurely going boom and bust faster than a virgin at an Amsterdam brothel.
And an additional problem is the Iranian youth. They are totally fed up with their regime, and many of those youth are quite pro-American. HGowever nothing would turn them radical faster than us trying to play the Shiite Islamic and Marxist MEK against the Mullahs, and thus we could easily lose the one thing that makes Iran a situation that will soon solve itself ...the youth. The plan above could easily be a boon to the mullah demagogues.
Anyways, just my personal thoughts and opinions. Not a criticism of the plan per se, just serious questioning based on past 'successes' of such plans.
"They are totally fed up with their regime, and many of those youth are quite pro-American. HGowever nothing would turn them radical faster than us trying to play the Shiite Islamic and Marxist MEK against the Mullahs, and thus we could easily lose the one thing that makes Iran a situation that will soon solve itself ...the youth. The plan above could easily be a boon to the mullah demagogues."
Exactly, but it's not just the youth. MEK is hated by most Iranians and seen as traitors.
We will lose our Pro-American allies if we support MEK in a crazy plan like this.
Sounds like a plan perfectly designed for blow-back of the nth degree.
But there is no knight in shining armor to come to the rescue, only the recognition of the need. How can the idealists run the show without the means to run the show
The threat, I see, is choosing Mussolini to make the trains run on time, and ending up with the Fascists running the switchyard.
What may be the middle ground is stability, bought for with American promises through diplomacy; a promise to not nuke the new Nuclear power plants if terrorism is stopped and the Iranian nukes are prevented. Something the MEK could be offered a reward for making happen, also.
We have not been bombing Iran for the last 14 years like we have Iraq. Their infrastructure is intact. Starting a war with our own weapons would require air strikes the likes of we havent seen in our lifetime. Iran is almost twice the size of Iraq, and it all runs, it hasn't been bombed for the last 14 years.
Once in power again, how easily can they be controlled? The same MEK that assassinates the Mullahs can assassinate the Rasfanjanis.
This is not an easy situation. I would rather see the students do it.
But a valid option is to use the available power that might create stability, not the altruistic one that will only get people shot in the streets as martyrs for the best cause.
I agree it is dangerous, but, what other actually workable plan do we have?
Other than idealism, what can the students bring? The clock is ticking down on the need to make the harshest decisions concerning just how far we can allow Iran to go in the development of nuclear weapons.
Do the students actually have anything that can stop that?
Do the students actually have anything that can stop the state sponsored terrorism?
This last election shows it wont just happen at the ballot box.
I wondered why our government was speaking to the MEK myself. Maybe because it is the only force that is in place over there that knows the country and has the weapons. While they are considered the bad guys by the average Iranian, they are not the Mullahs.
Any change of seeing that compilation today (especially since I was probably with you on the day you and the other Freepers marched at the White House...(:-)
Someting else to think of: Since the US would NEED to start a draft to occupy any area of Iran and Iraq at the same time, the use of an outside force is necessary.
NONE of the Europeans want to join in this fight.
So, who else would we use to control the Mullahs?
Iraq? That is suicide, Iranians hate the Iraqis due to the last war. At least the MEK is still Persian mostly, despite the cult like status of the leadership. They are still Persian.
It would not be another outside force trying to force themselves upon Persia like so many have in the last 1000 years.
They are hated MORE than mullahs!
Even taking MEK off the FTO list sends a very bad message to the Iranians. And the regime would cherish the news & move at lightning speed to report it to all the people and use it to further THEIR ends, ie, to turn the Iranian people against the regime's enemy, the U.S.
Any support of MEK by the U.S. is a terrible mistake for our future relations with the Iranian people.
Occupy Iran??? What are you talking about??
PLEASE, leave the foreign relations strategy to the White House.
That's my point, for any Army to win on the ground, there has to be a presence of troops.
There is NO WAY we could do that, not for 5 years. We would need a draft and over 1,000,000 men carrying a rifle to do it right.
Therefore, only an inside force of men willing to do it for us.
Like I said, not popular, not nice, but the only realistic way.
I would love to see a student revolution. And by the way, I am not endorsing the original plan, but there are some military and political considerations here that cannot be avoided and must be confronted.
My ideal would be the students doing the fighting. But what the Muullahs fear is a group with the power and presence that only the MEK can provide right now. Hated, feared, dangerous.
Enter in Rafsanjani (or similar), appears in political control, then, with the power of the united Iranian people, the MEK is quashed.
Bloody. Ruthless. Definitely Un-Christian.
The bloodbath brings in stability...maybe.
Got a better scenario? I would like to hear one that is plausible myself.
Oh, and not only that but once the MEK got a real foothold they would never be willing to give it up. And playing assassination tango with one group being played to hit another would only lead to large parts of the nation collapsing into cesspools of vitriol, or even worse into chaos zones. In a nutshell the civil war that the silly Liberals were screaming might happen in Iraq would instead be realized across the border in Iran.
Anyways, to succinctly make my points let me say a couple of things. For one the CIA tried such shadow games several times in the past, and their experiments either outright failed, or even worse made the target even gather more clout (Castro, for example, has a lot to thank the CIA for). The other point is that we would basically be giving the entire Iranian youth to one of the above groups (the MEK or the Mullahs .most probably the Mullahs since the MEK are anathema). All for a plan that not only has a high chance of failure, not only has too many ways to fail, but also has a rich history of similar plans going to the big stomping ground above.
Anyways, just my thoughts again. But let me put it another way. Imagine your typical Iranian youth. Pro-freedom, pro-American, pro-moving forward. Now imagine he or she learns that the US aided (either through logistics, financing, or both) an entry by the MEK (or similar groups) and started a proxy war within Iran against the mullahs. Tell me how that would go down in Iran? We would basically loose all hope in that nation for at least one generation
.the current one.
you covered my fears, too.
I think the plan is too dangerous to implement.
But, what else is there?
The students cannot just have arms given to them. We dont want martyrs.
In my opinion, the only other option is a massive aerial assault on the nuke plants.
And THAT will turn the students against us, too. And, it will give the MEK green light to go in without our consent/advice/control
If we let Israel do it, we ignite the whole Islamic world. If we do it, we ignite 75% of the Islamic world.
Either way, if Jimmy Carter had only let us go in 25 years ago.....
The classic treatment (so far) has been an attempt at a Kennon-esque containment and isolation. Unfortunately a venal, anti-American Europe and China showed how easily an operator such as Saddam with offers in the form of commercial contacts and outright bribery can get around that tactic. I shall not invoke the name of the UN in this context lest you break out in hysterical laughter.
We can, of course, engage their Hezbollah proxies in Lebanon, and we may need to do so at some point, but I think the head of this snake is in Qom and Tehran, and it is there that a resolution must be effected.
These are radicals who are eager to reclaim their primacy in the Islamist drive against the West from the Wahhabi Sunnis, and will, if I am not mistaken, feel compelled to continue to increase both rhetoric and activity, searching for the line that Saddam finally found. At that point we will have a casus belli - I really think they're both stupid and fanatical enough to push it that far - and at that point we will have to seek a level of military operations that will suffice to overturn the government without engaging in a land war. I do not see invasion as a viable option. But we did manage a regime change in Afghanistan short of that, and it may be that options along those lines may offer the least sanguinary means of ridding the world of a truly malevolent group of men who have never felt serious opposition. All IMHO and from an observer undoubtedly less qualified than your source, so take it with a bucket of salt.
Spent the whole evening copying and pasting. Good stuff. Have you read Amir Taheri's "Nest of Spies?"
No, not too much time to read lately, I am looking forward to getting Jerome Corsi's book, too. Taheri's is on my wish list, too.
Concerning the thoughts of NOT using the MEK, for reasons stated on this thead, Alan responds with:
The dire warnings are highly exaggerated, specially about putting Iranians off. It puts some Iranians off, those with let's do it peacefully and let it all happen through Orange Ukraine or students, or normal political process etc.,
Just isn't factual or accurate. Specially about distressing pro-American Iranians and turning them against the USA. As if this actually makes much difference when they are unable to do anything anyway. So you temporarily alienate a mind set that will happily be pro-American again when they find the Mullahs weakened or about to go.
The MEK are nowhere near as hated as the writer appears to make out - except by the current regime. If it's not a ""previously accepted or known source"" source, let's do it by due process and legal means like a referendum, then I would posit it's a pro-Mullah source that promotes this kind of anti-MEK sloganism. The MEK terrifies them as the only hard hitting entity that exists who will willingly bomb them as they did in the past, set suicide bombers and be just as nasty to the Mullahs as they are to their population.
Interesting responses. Including a couple of mature ones questioning if this could not fail badly or be a "blowback to the nth degree". Logical, valid comment. However nothing else out there has the chance of a snowflake in hell of accomplishing regime change, so what's the fuss. Worth a hail Mary shot rather than a sure result of no progress to stop the nuke capability - which Sandblast would.
Re Spetnatz comment: Anyways, just my thoughts again. But let me put it another way. Imagine your typical Iranian youth. Pro-freedom, pro-American, pro-moving forward. Now imagine he or she learns that the US aided (either through logistics, financing, or both) an entry by the MEK (or similar groups) and started a proxy war within Iran against the mullahs. Tell me how that would go down in Iran? We would basically loose all hope in that nation for at least one generation .the current one.
(Spetnatz - open minded poster with decent comments but a skewed take on Iranian youth mentality and loyalties).
Much to everyone's astonishment it would go down very well with the Iranian youth so often mentioned as avidly pro-American but not sufficiently anti-Mullah to accept their removal with whatever means. We would basically lose all hope in that nation for at least one generation .the current one.
Where do they get this idea of losing the youth. The youth to which they refer (as you stated in a response) is incapable of doing anything nor mustering any force against the Mullahs but have to put up with them for lack of anything better. Their probable anger at the USA is a myth with no confirmation and inaccurate doomsday nay-sayings are part of the reason the Mullahs are not long gone. Again we judge the Iranian youth based on a view of our own or even European. They are not. They will gladly have someone else do the job for them now that they are hopeless about doing it themselves. They may forget to thank the MEK. And then work on getting both Rafsanjani and the MEK out by proposing changing the Constitution - which the MEK would ardently support. That removes clerical legitimacy and support. THEN they would demand elections and at the very least vote the MEK out of power! Yes, there would be civil strife but by then the Revolutionary Guard, the Bassiji etc., would be discouraged by deaths of their top leaders at the hands of the MEK and become more open to supporting a new leadeship. Not so now. Etc., Etc.,
Feel free to respond at one and all the way you have been doing.
Excerpt from Iran Press News.
This is the fertile ground on which to carry out Operation Sandblast. The final comment negates the nay-sayers who worry about the students turning against us. As I aid in an Email to you, they will be happy to stay out of it and watch the Mullahs removed. Even by the MEK as part of the removal process.
Rafsanjani who refers to the widespread deception and fraud in the bogus election as "ambiguities", insinuated: "I hope that the president himself, along with the Ministry of the Interior, will clarify matters, offering the people the truth so that in the future, the country does not find itself in deeper trouble."
He then continued to address Ahmadinejad's "instalment" [to presidency], hinting to Khamnei and warning him of danger: "If we do not watch our steps, our enemies will take advantage of the situation and attempt to hurt the regime, while taking advantage of the masses."
Of course this was neither the first time, since the elections that these types of comments were heard from Rafsanjani, nor has Khamnei and his factions been sitting by idly. Rafsanjani's defeat was a deadly blow to his empire and Khamnei who had begrudgingly shared the power with Rafsanjani for many years, was well aware of the fact that Rafsanjani would take action and eventually fully retaliate against him for the very public betrayal [and embarrassment] of giving his post to a "flunky" (Ahmadi-Nejat).
On Friday, June 24th, the day of the second round of elections therefore, pre-emptive blows were struck against sympathizers and colluders of Rafsanjani's at the hands of apparent "enforcers" of the Supreme Leader. In one instance of the reported scuffles, Rafsanjani's representative at one of the polling stations as well as Mullah Tavassoli, who is a member of The Khomeini Bureau were both severely injured. Based on reports from ILNA, the regime's news agency, Rafsanjani's representative was forcibly dragged out of the polling station by a few unknown men and almost fatally stabbed.
At this juncture, Mullah Hasan Rowhani who led Iran's 21-month negotiations with the European Union over Tehran's nuclear programme has also resigned his post leaving absolutely no recourse for the European Union who has ruthlessly ignored the pleas of the innocent Iranian people. The fractiousness of the various Mullah camps against each other has become apparent. At this juncture, each Mullah's goon squad will soon begin the gangland style assassination that will be reminiscent of the 1920's and '30's Chicago territorial shoot-outs.
This for now has become the "dream" scenario of the Iranian people for the once and for all riddance of the Mullacracy. Leaving the Iranian people out of their final "showdown" will be the greatest departing gift that these ideologues can give us.
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