yeah everyone warned it would happen and now it's such a big surprise! Helen is an idiot.
Posted on 07/08/2005 2:57:04 AM PDT by Piefloater
The cost of a Government Kyoto Protocol botch-up could soar as high as $1.2 billion - more than double that estimated by the Treasury last month - a new report claims.
The Government last month admitted that it had miscalculated New Zealand's greenhouse gas growth, for which it is liable under the Kyoto Protocol, resulting in an embarrassing $500 million bill rather than a $500m credit.
But the situation could be even worse, accounting giant PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) says.
The PWC analysis shows the company believes the $500m bill estimate is also wrong. It believes the liability will be more like $1.2b to $1.7b above the original estimate.
This claim has been rubbished by the Treasury, which last night hit back, telling The Press its estimates were sound and the accountants had got it wrong.
Under the Kyoto Protocol, countries must reduce carbon emissions to 1990 levels or buy carbon credits, based on a cost per tonne of carbon.
A report released this week by the PWC climate-change services team says Treasury calculations of the likely cost to the Government were "surprising".
Climate-change team partner Julia Hoare said the price of carbon credits used appeared significantly lower than current and likely future prices.
Hoare said her firm's estimate of $1.2b was based on current carbon prices and exchange rates, but even this was conservative.
However, Treasury principal climate-change policy adviser Steve Rylands said the rate it used was based on a World Bank report and had been favourably analysed by Australian consultants Allen Consulting Group.
The group's report, released to The Press, says the price used for the Treasury estimates was "an appropriate indicative estimate of the price of a Kyoto permit".
Prices generated on the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme were "unlikely to be a reliable indicator of future Kyoto prices".
"We didn't just make this up. I think some of the analysts out there have got this quite wrong. I don't agree with the PricewaterhouseCoopers report," Rylands said.
The accountants' report used figures based on European trading markets, but New Zealand would not be forced to buy in those markets, he said.
Pete Hodgson, convener of the Ministerial Group on Climate Change, said that although he had not seen the PWC report, it appeared to be "pessimistic" and failed to take into account the benefit of climate-change measures.
"It would be good if PricewaterhouseCoopers could give us some idea of the cost of not making progress on climate change, and whether droughts predicated later this century as a result of climate change are something they could put on the other side of the equation," he said.
Even if the accountants' assumptions proved accurate, the Government's commitment to Kyoto would not waver, he said.
National environment spokesman Nick Smith said the new figures "re-emphasised the size of the error" in signing the protocol in 2002.
"The Government has been economical with the truth in using its own price for carbon rather than international prices," he said. "It shows how serious this is going to be for New Zealand."
Hoare said the political uncertainty surrounding the protocol was worrying for business.
"We have a very large liability staring us in the face and we need all the politicians to step away from the political rhetoric and have a multi-party approach on how we are going to deal with our Kyoto obligations," she said.
Originally the Clark Government sold Kyoto to the populace on the basis that they would be selling $500 million in carbon credits.
I really can't figure how this achieves anything other than transferring wealth from tiny NZ to a collapsing Russian economy
Any ideas?
They could have renamed this article Atlas Shrugged
"Carbon credits", LOL. This is the stupidest treaty of all time. Why anyone would sign on to this piece of garbage is a mystery to me.
Perhaps if everyone in NZ stopped breathing greenhouse gasses could be further curbed.
Save the planet, kill yourself.
Another case of politians shooting themselves in the foot. Unfortunately, the whole country will feel the pain by damaging a good economy with bad science.
Once again....Proving "Liberalism" is a mental disease...
It even destroys the ability to evaluate situations and determine the cost..
Semper Fi
Supposedly, the goal is that as you reduce emissions, your need to purchase credits goes down.
Not sure how you reduce those emissions...in NZ, sheep are a major contributor, I think I read somewhere.
But you are right...all this is is a wealth transfer system designed to slow economies and growth by siphoning off wealth.
I would liken it to slitting your own throat and smiling while you do it.
Why, of course, the whole idea behind Kyoto is to remove wealth (and industry) from "the west" and hand it over to the "developing world." It enhances the self-esteem of the socialists in the west and enhances the bank accounts of socialists in the developing world. Environmental impacts are irrelevant.
Points out a huge weakness in this boondoggle. How are the emmissions calculated and who verifies the numbers? How mutch can they fudge the numbers before they're caught?
They're anti-capitalists wrapped in Environmentalist clothing. They want to see the economies of the West destroyed so they tug at the heartstrings of those that want to "save the Earth" in order to completely take over and save the day with Socialism/Communism.
I really can't figure how this achieves anything other than transferring wealth from tiny NZ to a collapsing Russian economy.
Any ideas?
Overthrow the government that signed the stupid treaty?
Yo, boy. I got some fine land near the Everglades to sell you. Some people think the property is a little low but the price is right. Whaddya think?
Seriously, there was quite a row in Enzed last year concerning Helen's decision to try to tax sheep farts all based on the same pseudoscience and the desire of socialists to redistribute wealth.
Thats right and they tried to link them to global warming. Supposedly the tax would buy their credits or some such.
BTW, those Everglades emit a lot of gases...gotta be dangerous to the world overall.
:]
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Ask any farmer anywhere in the world and he'll tell you that you can't predict the weather.
Then ask him if you can quantify weather in terms of dollars--and he'll tell you: "Sure, buddy, give me a few dollars and I'll guarantee you that the weather will change."
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