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LIVE THREAD: HURRICANE KATRINA (Cat 1)
NOAA-NHC ^ | 24 August 2005 | NOAA-NHC

Posted on 08/24/2005 6:20:56 AM PDT by NautiNurse

The twelfth tropical storm of the 2005 hurricane season is named Katrina. The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
TD 12 Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: florida; hurricane; hurricanekatrina; india; katrina; katy; tropical; weather
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To: IYAAYAS

Stay Safe........

Check back when you can.


401 posted on 08/25/2005 3:00:38 PM PDT by Gabz (USSG Warning: portable sewing machines are known to cause broken ankles)
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To: Spiff

I thought you were talking about satellite view of the clouds. The radar is very current.


402 posted on 08/25/2005 3:00:45 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Gabz

'Bout time you showed up, young lady!


403 posted on 08/25/2005 3:01:41 PM PDT by onyx (North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: onyx
202 miles in 3 hours is averaging a bit below 70 mph, so it depends on whether or not you were on the interstate.

To go 140 miles in 90 minutes, you'd have to be going nearly 95 mph...which is fast in my book! ;-)

404 posted on 08/25/2005 3:03:29 PM PDT by Amelia (Common sense isn't particularly common.)
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To: Gabz
FONT size=+1>
Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 9

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2005

 
Katrina is now a hurricane based on NOAA recon SFMR reports of
surface winds to 64 kt just northwest of the center. These winds
are supported by NOAA-Miami Doppler radar velocities of 90 kt at
3000 ft...which equates to about 67 kt surface winds. The most
recent NOAA recon pressure while composing this discussion has
fallen 2 mb in the past hour to 985 mb.

The initial motion estimate is 265/5. 12z and 18z upper-air data
indicate the subtropical ridge to the north of Katrina has changed
little while an inverted mid- to upper-level trough has developed
northward from the Caribbean Sea to Katrina. The trough is expected
to induce a slight south of due west motion for the next 12 hours
or so. Afterwards...the ridge to the north is expected to slowly
weaken and erode on the west side as a shortwave trough over the
central U.S. Digs southeastward toward the northern Gulf of Mexico.
This slow evolving pattern is foecast to gradually induce a slow
northwest and then northward motion after 48 hours. The NHC model
guidance is in good agreement on the westward motion for the next
36 hours...but then diverges significantly after that. The GFS has
been the most consistent/persistent model in taking Katrina slowly
northeastward after 72 hours across northwest Florida...whereas the
GFDL...GFDN...and UKMET models have now flip-flopped widely to the
west and bring Katrina inland between Mobile Alabama and Grand Isle
Louisiana. The GFDL and GFDN models have been given less weight
given their persistent much faster westward motion the past 24
hours...which has not materialized. The official forecast track is
similar to the previous track and is to the right of the NHC model
consensus.

There is still a short window of opportunity for Katrina to
strengthen to around 70 kt before landfall occurs. After landfall
...Steady weakening is expected until the hurricane emerges off the
southwest Florida coast in about 30 hours. Once Katrina moves over
the warm Gulf of Mexico where the vertical shear is expected to be
low...restrengthening into a hurricane seems likely. It should be
emphasized that Katrina is not forecast to weaken prior to landfall
...Which could be implied by the official intensity forecast. In
contrast...Katrina is expected to strengthen to 90 kt before
landfall occurs in the Florida Panhandle. This is consistent with
the SHIPS intensity model and the trend in the GFDL model...
although the latter model makes Katrina a 118-kt category 4 storm.

 
Forecaster Stewart

405 posted on 08/25/2005 3:04:45 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: onyx

Sorry :(

I started physical therapy yesterday and one of the things I am not allowed to do is spend hours sitting in front of the computer at a time......I have to spend more hours in a reclining position with my leg elevated...so I was literally lying down on the job ;)
but I did start heading for the computer when I heard John Gibson say HURRICANE at 5:00pm


406 posted on 08/25/2005 3:05:30 PM PDT by Gabz (USSG Warning: portable sewing machines are known to cause broken ankles)
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To: Amelia

OK. 70 mph was posted most of the way, so I drove compliantly...lol.


407 posted on 08/25/2005 3:06:53 PM PDT by onyx (North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: onyx

LOL! Thanks, and don't forget, I'll also have my coffee. (last year we didn't have a generator and when we lost power, I went to my folks to make coffee each morning. Too much trouble on a Coleman stove. My folks don't live far, but everybody made fun of my "addiction.") This year, I'm prepared!


408 posted on 08/25/2005 3:06:58 PM PDT by dawn53
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To: Dog Gone
The GFS has been the most consistent/persistent model in taking Katrina slowly northeastward after 72 hours across northwest Florida.

That's a little scary, particular if it strengthens to Cat 4 before the 2nd landfall, because that's the one that has it closest to my house....

409 posted on 08/25/2005 3:07:49 PM PDT by Amelia (Common sense isn't particularly common.)
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To: Dog Gone

Forecaster Stewart is such a sweetheart................RME


410 posted on 08/25/2005 3:08:05 PM PDT by Gabz (USSG Warning: portable sewing machines are known to cause broken ankles)
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To: Gabz
I hear you. On a serious note, I really had no idea your leg (ankle wasn't it?) was still giving you trouble. I recall your accident occurred during our last FReepathon.
411 posted on 08/25/2005 3:09:28 PM PDT by onyx (North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: dawn53

As long as you're running a generator, you should use a CO detector in your house. :-(


412 posted on 08/25/2005 3:11:25 PM PDT by Howlin (The answer is NO, no baby yet!)
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To: Amelia
I suspect the models will shift quite a bit over the next two or three days. The only one on the Gulf Coast who needs to be truly concerned is blam.

He's only safe when all the models are in concurrence that it's going somewhere else. Otherwise, he gets nailed every time.

413 posted on 08/25/2005 3:12:11 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Spiff

Thank you for that.........I'll try again!


414 posted on 08/25/2005 3:12:14 PM PDT by Howlin (The answer is NO, no baby yet!)
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To: Dog Gone

Did you say Africa? I'm an freak for those African storm clouds.....where do I find that?


415 posted on 08/25/2005 3:12:58 PM PDT by Howlin (The answer is NO, no baby yet!)
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To: Dog Gone
It refreshes automatically, but it's like every 4 hours. That's fine for systems 1200 miles from land, but not much good for landfall kind of stuff. You're better off going to the visible floater for that, and even that's not real time.

I'm looking at the RGB SAT view from NOAA on Google Earth and it says it is the GOES-FLOATER VIEW. It also seems to be alinged nearly perfectly with the live Radar layer. Here's a screenshot with both layers together on my Google Earth:


416 posted on 08/25/2005 3:13:07 PM PDT by Spiff (Don't believe everything you think.)
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To: dawn53


Oh yes YOUR coffee! Good hair and fresh coffee --- what else does a girl need during a hurricane? LOL!

Take care and I'll check back later. Need to drag husband out to eat.


417 posted on 08/25/2005 3:14:23 PM PDT by onyx (North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: onyx

Come to think of it, you're right - it was during the FReepathon - right after 4th of July.........the cast only came off last week, and the dressings from the surgery only came off this week.

Yes it is my andle, and many thanks for referring to my bout of clumsiness as an "accident" LOL!!!!


418 posted on 08/25/2005 3:15:31 PM PDT by Gabz (USSG Warning: portable sewing machines are known to cause broken ankles)
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To: Spiff; Dog Gone

One more question: does it automatically update, or do I keep downloading?


419 posted on 08/25/2005 3:15:40 PM PDT by Howlin (The answer is NO, no baby yet!)
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To: Guenevere

Be care, Guennie!


420 posted on 08/25/2005 3:17:05 PM PDT by Howlin (The answer is NO, no baby yet!)
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