Posted on 08/24/2005 6:20:56 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The twelfth tropical storm of the 2005 hurricane season is named Katrina. The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
TD 12 Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Stay Safe........
Check back when you can.
I thought you were talking about satellite view of the clouds. The radar is very current.
'Bout time you showed up, young lady!
To go 140 miles in 90 minutes, you'd have to be going nearly 95 mph...which is fast in my book! ;-)
Katrina is now a hurricane based on NOAA recon SFMR reports of surface winds to 64 kt just northwest of the center. These winds are supported by NOAA-Miami Doppler radar velocities of 90 kt at 3000 ft...which equates to about 67 kt surface winds. The most recent NOAA recon pressure while composing this discussion has fallen 2 mb in the past hour to 985 mb.
The initial motion estimate is 265/5. 12z and 18z upper-air data indicate the subtropical ridge to the north of Katrina has changed little while an inverted mid- to upper-level trough has developed northward from the Caribbean Sea to Katrina. The trough is expected to induce a slight south of due west motion for the next 12 hours or so. Afterwards...the ridge to the north is expected to slowly weaken and erode on the west side as a shortwave trough over the central U.S. Digs southeastward toward the northern Gulf of Mexico. This slow evolving pattern is foecast to gradually induce a slow northwest and then northward motion after 48 hours. The NHC model guidance is in good agreement on the westward motion for the next 36 hours...but then diverges significantly after that. The GFS has been the most consistent/persistent model in taking Katrina slowly northeastward after 72 hours across northwest Florida...whereas the GFDL...GFDN...and UKMET models have now flip-flopped widely to the west and bring Katrina inland between Mobile Alabama and Grand Isle Louisiana. The GFDL and GFDN models have been given less weight given their persistent much faster westward motion the past 24 hours...which has not materialized. The official forecast track is similar to the previous track and is to the right of the NHC model consensus.
There is still a short window of opportunity for Katrina to strengthen to around 70 kt before landfall occurs. After landfall ...Steady weakening is expected until the hurricane emerges off the southwest Florida coast in about 30 hours. Once Katrina moves over the warm Gulf of Mexico where the vertical shear is expected to be low...restrengthening into a hurricane seems likely. It should be emphasized that Katrina is not forecast to weaken prior to landfall ...Which could be implied by the official intensity forecast. In contrast...Katrina is expected to strengthen to 90 kt before landfall occurs in the Florida Panhandle. This is consistent with the SHIPS intensity model and the trend in the GFDL model... although the latter model makes Katrina a 118-kt category 4 storm.
Forecaster Stewart
Sorry :(
I started physical therapy yesterday and one of the things I am not allowed to do is spend hours sitting in front of the computer at a time......I have to spend more hours in a reclining position with my leg elevated...so I was literally lying down on the job ;)
but I did start heading for the computer when I heard John Gibson say HURRICANE at 5:00pm
OK. 70 mph was posted most of the way, so I drove compliantly...lol.
LOL! Thanks, and don't forget, I'll also have my coffee. (last year we didn't have a generator and when we lost power, I went to my folks to make coffee each morning. Too much trouble on a Coleman stove. My folks don't live far, but everybody made fun of my "addiction.") This year, I'm prepared!
That's a little scary, particular if it strengthens to Cat 4 before the 2nd landfall, because that's the one that has it closest to my house....
Forecaster Stewart is such a sweetheart................RME
As long as you're running a generator, you should use a CO detector in your house. :-(
He's only safe when all the models are in concurrence that it's going somewhere else. Otherwise, he gets nailed every time.
Thank you for that.........I'll try again!
Did you say Africa? I'm an freak for those African storm clouds.....where do I find that?
I'm looking at the RGB SAT view from NOAA on Google Earth and it says it is the GOES-FLOATER VIEW. It also seems to be alinged nearly perfectly with the live Radar layer. Here's a screenshot with both layers together on my Google Earth:
Oh yes YOUR coffee! Good hair and fresh coffee --- what else does a girl need during a hurricane? LOL!
Take care and I'll check back later. Need to drag husband out to eat.
Come to think of it, you're right - it was during the FReepathon - right after 4th of July.........the cast only came off last week, and the dressings from the surgery only came off this week.
Yes it is my andle, and many thanks for referring to my bout of clumsiness as an "accident" LOL!!!!
One more question: does it automatically update, or do I keep downloading?
Be care, Guennie!
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