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Posted on 08/26/2005 10:25:04 PM PDT by NautiNurse
ok--saw estimates in the 2:00AM update.
""Several hours ago, heard 21 rigs were already evacuated. See nwctwx post above with more info.""
hate to say it, but oil could be at $80 by next weekend, with substantial damage to the oil rigs and platforms.
Warch For Snakes Bump
max flight wind of 120mph on first pass (from nw to se i believe)...would correspond to around 105 surface.
I'll need to dust the cobwebs off the bicycle.
I swear she is paralleling the northern Cuba coast.
OMG--did I just hear 950mb?
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: KATRINA (12L)
Mission Number: 12
Flight ID: AF304
Observation Number: 04
Time: 05:53:30Z
Latitude: 24.4°N
Longitude: 84°W
Location: 139 mi NW of Havana, Cuba
Minimum height at 700 mb 2673 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Maximum flight level wind: NE (48°) @ 105 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 10 mi NW (325°)
Sea level pressure: 950 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 57°F at 9990 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 63°F at 9974 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 55°F
Eye character: OPEN NNW
Eye shape: Elliptical
Eye diameter: Major axis oriented NE (60°), major axis length: 23 mi, minor axis length: 17 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 1 nm
MAX FL WIND 91 KT NW QUAD 05:50:50 Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C, 325 / 9NM
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION
pressure down to 950mb, still having problems closing off the northern eyewall...which is the last hope of non-ideal conditions.
the max wind can be updated to:
120mph at 231 degrees,
What is causing the eyewall problem?
dry air entrainment...which has been present since east of florida....its just a matter of time before its evacuated though..imo.
120 mph is flight level--translating to 108mph sea level using 90%?
yep...108....which is lower than the correlating pressure would lead you to expect. but the winds will catch up.
the scary thing is that the pressure has dropped to 950mb WITHOUT a closed eyewall for the past day....
amazing, isn't it.
If it can pull enough moisture around itself to get a stronger nw core, this could be a real big problem considering how big it already is without a good nw core!
NHC has done very well in this time frame this year. I would guess she'll come in within 75 miles of from the current point we see. It's tough to say exactly when/where she will turn till she does so.
The storm is likely undergoing a rapid intensification cycle right now. Before the satellite blackout, cloud tops were cooling very quickly and also quickly circling the center. When it comes back online, the storm will likely look much better. 2-3 hours of quick intensification, should see winds come up in the next few hours.
I can't remember having such a sick feeling about a storm that was actually moving away from here before.
goes 10 doesnt/didnt go into eclipse but you only get 1 hr images i think...this one is only 1 hour old...
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/tropical_cyclones/tc05/ATL/12L.KATRINA/ir/geo/1km/20050827.0530.goes10.x.ir1km.12LKATRINA.85kts-965mb-247N-833W.jpg
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