Live Thread - Hurricane Katrina, Part IV (Update: Now a Category 5 )

NOAA - NHC ^ | 27 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings and watches are posted. Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast models continue to converge upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this very large and dangerous storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. There have been reports of coastal animals leaving in droves for higher ground. Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to suggest that residents evacuate.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[NautiNurse]

Please Note: Do not post graphics >50KB. Use links instead. This is a high traffic thread, and we have a lot of FReepers using dial-up modems. Please be considerate of your fellow FReepers.

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings have been issued for the north central Gulf Coast from Morgan City Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida border...including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch have been issued from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to Destin Florida...and from west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana.

[al baby]

Thanks for the thread Great home page to boot

[spycatcher]

[Gabz]

Lord love you, my FRiend.........

[Crazieman]

President Bush declares 'State of Emergency' for Louisiana

[Pyro7480]

She looked more impressive on the IR an hour ago than she did about a half hour ago. Is she going through eyewall replenishment?

[Termite_Commander]

Thanks for all your work keeping these threads up to date and running, NN.

[Pyro7480]

It looks like most of the models are in agreement now. I wonder how long that is going to hold. God spare the people of Louisiana and Mississippi. May the angels guide them and protect them.

[yield 2 the right]

This is my post from the last thread...

PRAY FOR OUR FELLOW AMERICANS THAT ARE GOING TO BE IN HURRICANE KATRINA'S WAY!!

1,474 posted on 08/27/2005 11:12:33 PM EDT by yield 2 the right

[alancarp]

Don't know that, but did ya notice that the pressure is down again? 946 (I think) to 939mb.

[NautiNurse]

Let me try this again...

Did the mayor of NO say he didn't have the legal authority to order a mandatory evacuation of New Orleans? I don't get it.

[alancarp]

...and while the wind speed is still listed at 115, this intensity suggests a solid Cat 4 storm already.

[spycatcher]

One more small graphic of the N.O. "bowl"

[Ellesu]

I did not hear him, but today Blanco said it was up to the local mayors etc. to make that call.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf?/washingaway/thebigone_1.html

"The Big One"

[dogbyte12]

I am not sure on this one either. They did mandatory evacs of the lower parishes. Perhaps there is something in the NO charter?

[Palladin]

I am sitting here over a thousand miles from New Orleans and feeling mighty helpless.

There is going to be great loss of life down there, and there is very little anyone can do to prevent it. Once the water comes crashing in, there's no stopping it.

Dear God, help all those in the path of this great storm.

[Strategerist]

First of the 0Z Globals rolling in, 0Z NOGAPS essentially identical to the 18Z run, directly over New Orleans.

[Pyro7480]

Would it be the parish executive?

[Termite_Commander]

I don't know. I didn't even know he was holding a news conference.

*chagrined*

[Jrabbit]

My husband just asked me the same thing.....wanted me to see if anyone knew what the heck that means!

[NautiNurse]

That's what I was wondering...did you hear him say it? Was on the streaming video.

[Tuxedo]

The latest from NHC suggest that the wind field is expanding. Interesting that a 939 mb pressure should equate to higher wind speed than 115 MPH. Not sure if that is due though to increased wind field though. Basically, it is getting bigger but not necessarily stronger right now. Starting to make the turn too it would seem.

[NautiNurse]

I thought he said there has never been a mandatory evacuation in the history of New Orleans.

[jeeperz]

The mayor said he hopes to have the legal authority for mandatory evac by morning.

[Jrabbit]

Exactly.....that's why my hubby asked. Never? That seems rather odd.

[Tuxedo]

There is a significant crime element in NO that is probably making the officials a little skittish about forcing everyone out. Maybe they are just banking on common sense right now prevailing.

[NautiNurse]

that's what I heard. go figure.

[fooman]

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/CustomGraphic/tghur2.gif?

[NautiNurse]

Very good--thanks for bringing that over here.

[Jrabbit]

It's a nightmare for the poor souls that have nowhere to go.....shelters will be worthless won't they?

[bannie]

After looking at your graphic...is it self-righteous for me to ask why anyone lives there?

[alancarp]

I read that too, but let me add to the point from Accuweather (a snip from a copyrighted column, but I do this in the interest of public safety, of course):

"The central pressure of the storm now at 942 [at the time of that post] is the lowest pressure ever reported with a storm of winds of 115 mph. In a study of the last 10 years, all storms with pressures of 952 or lower had winds of 120 miles or more on TPC bulletins and the average was [125.1 mph] . The only storm I could find with a pressure of 950 and windspeed of 115 was Hugo, another storm i was ranting about when such things were getting reported since the true wind of the storm in landfall situations of tropical cyclones where pressures are falling, will be ramped up. It is my contention that there are higher winds, that the flight level winds are probably down at the surface though maybe not right under the strong winds. But with the pressures so low, the transfer of the wind to the surface is easier to occur."

[Ellesu]

The Mayor said he and his lawyers are considering a mandatory evacuation, he is trying to see if the hospitals and hotels can be exempt. He will announce in the morning, his decision.

[Ellesu]

The Mayor said he and his lawyers are considering a mandatory evacuation, he is trying to see if the hospitals and hotels can be exempt. He will announce in the morning, his decision.

[Jrabbit]

hmmm....ok, I guess that makes sense....except the hospitals and hotels will be under water, no?

[NautiNurse]

What does that mean for hospitals and hotels to be exempt? Exempt from evacuation or some charter that prevents it? This is amazing.

[highimpact]

It's a nightmare for the poor souls that have nowhere to go.....shelters will be worthless won't they?

The Superdome has 4 or 5 levels. Certainly the top three or four would be above the floodline (assuming the structure can hold up). Seating capacity is aroung 60,000 I believe, with room for thousands more on the outer concourses.

[skr]

Have been praying throughout the day and will be sending more petitions to Him.

[Termite_Commander]

I hope he can speed it up. With Katrina getting so dang big, it won't be long until the wind and rain starts, and that's going to be a nightmare to evacuate through.

Depending on where this lands, if he delays a mandatory evac, he could risk even more lives by having hundreds of people in gridlock as a Cat 4 storm rolls through.

[Tarheel]

Some how this guy does not inspire the kind of confidence needed in the face of a disaster. Someone must have the authority to order a mandatory evacuation--the Chief of Police, the City Manager.

This guy d/n come close to the courage of Rudy on 9/11 and the aftermath. No matter what you may think of Rudy G. you must admire what he did for NYC. As far as his personal life--yuk.

[Tuxedo]

It depends. There are a lot of variables here that are unknown - strength at landfall, eye landfall position (east or west of Lake Ponch, and forward speed of the hurricane when it makes landfall. A direct hit is not instantly an epic disaster unless the other variables align. Basically, a lot has to go "right" in order to create the doomsday scenarion. NO has a substantial homeless and impoverished population most of which are basically screwed if all the numbers come out "right". Further reaching impacts though are within the aftermath and what actually happens to the city. Some of those things are too terrible to begin to contemplate.

[fooman]

NO flood while the lawyers fiddle...

[Tom D.]

It appears that it may be time to head to Pat O'Brien's for his signature beverage.

As to the so called "mandatory" evacuations, if it is anything like what we have in eastern NC, they issue what are called mandatory evacuations, but the mandatory stuff is not enforceable in the usual sense of the word. What that usually means (here anyway) is that they tell you to get out, that if something bad happens to you (e.g. a tree falls on you, you suffer a heart attack, etc.) the authorities are not going to be in a position to provide any assistance to you and you are on your own. Additionally, in most mandatory evacuations, the authorities will not let you into the area if you are trying to get there. When stuff like this happens the authorities do not have the time to arrest you for refusing to do what they tell you to do because they are tied up with taking care of the other stuff that happens.

[LA Woman3]

I remember someone stating in the Ivan thread (last year)about mandatory evacuations. If the city officials call for them, they are financially libel for everyone that cannot afford to evacuate. Any Louisiana FReepers remember this??

[bannie]

The Superdome has 4 or 5 levels. Certainly the top three or four would be above the floodline (assuming the structure can hold up). Seating capacity is aroung 60,000 I believe, with room for thousands more on the outer concourses.

What a horrific image: People scrambling to higher ground--like ants.

[spycatcher]

Well if N.O. gets devastated by this, people may not move back in large numbers.

[spycatcher]

I heard the Superdome is actually 20 ft off the ground to start.

[Tuxedo]

Yes, it is at a higher ground than near the riverfront. Easily the safest place in town.

[sonsofliberty2000]

I'll build the ark, you gather the animals.