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Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

Posted on 08/26/2005 10:25:04 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:


New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:


Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:


WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: byebyebigeasy; hurricane; hurricanekatrina; katrina; miami; tropical; weather
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1 posted on 08/26/2005 10:25:10 PM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: aberaussie; Alas Babylon!; Alia; alnick; Amelia; asp1; AntiGuv; Bahbah; balrog666; blam; Blennos; ..

Forecast models converging on New Orleans area. However, Katrina has been delaying the anticipated turn.

2 posted on 08/26/2005 10:27:30 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

They delayed the call for the turn to the west until tomorrow. But I notice that the projected path still shows west for the first leg. Is this forcasterese for "we don't know?"


3 posted on 08/26/2005 10:32:01 PM PDT by Ingtar (Understanding is a three-edged sword : your side, my side, and the truth in between ." -- Kosh)
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To: NautiNurse
Thanks. :)

Tropical Storm Five Day Forecast Map (~23K)


4 posted on 08/26/2005 10:32:05 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... "To remain silent when they should protest makes cowards of men." -- THOMAS JEFFERSON)
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To: All; NautiNurse
New 00z guidance --MM5 GFS ETA RGEM, DISASTER for nat gas!!
Meteorologist: Dave Tolleris

US Gulf of Mexico Oil and Gas Production Impact Estimate

Eastern United States Weather Forums

5 posted on 08/26/2005 10:33:05 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: Ingtar

This storm hasn't done much of anything expected to date.


6 posted on 08/26/2005 10:33:23 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: dennis1x

recon about to reach the center....will be the first pressure reading in a while....ill update when it comes in.


7 posted on 08/26/2005 10:33:44 PM PDT by dennis1x
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To: NautiNurse

Many thanks, NN. You do such a superb job!


8 posted on 08/26/2005 10:33:51 PM PDT by nuclady
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To: NautiNurse
Cruised through real fast.

Goodnight bump.

9 posted on 08/26/2005 10:34:27 PM PDT by blam
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks for the ping!!

I think Katrina is still intensely unpredictable for a couple reasons. There's no telling when exactly that ridge that's keeping the storm from tracking north will move westward as predicted, and once Katrina slips through it's altogether possible the hurricane will begin tracking back toward the northeast. The computer models seem to match pretty well right now, but they are all operating on the same basic assumption of when and how the ridge will move west.


10 posted on 08/26/2005 10:34:55 PM PDT by AntiGuv ("Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away." Philip K. Dick)
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To: NautiNurse

The Weather Channel has now accepted the possibility that Texas may now be in play for landfall. I hope it doesn't hit anybody.


11 posted on 08/26/2005 10:35:26 PM PDT by Hillarys Gate Cult
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To: nwctwx
Those sites are positively frightening.

If she doesn't make a turn for several more hours, does Texas come into the picture?

12 posted on 08/26/2005 10:35:37 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

This storm hasn't done much of anything expected to date.


----

I hear ya on that.

Just a couple of days ago, I thought it was gonna skirt the west side of florida and then head up thru georgia and up the coast .


13 posted on 08/26/2005 10:35:54 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... "To remain silent when they should protest makes cowards of men." -- THOMAS JEFFERSON)
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To: Hillarys Gate Cult
Well, you answered my question before I posted it--clairvoyant one!
14 posted on 08/26/2005 10:37:01 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

None of the 0Z models have shifted W of Louisiana. A few have come back east a tad, but are generally all tightly clustered around New Orleans.

There never was any sort of sharp drastic turn forecast; just a gradual, imperceptible turn.


15 posted on 08/26/2005 10:37:25 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: blam

Nighters!


16 posted on 08/26/2005 10:37:52 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

Wow, I stumbled in here because I misread the title:  Hurricane Katherine (Harris) Live Thread, Part III.

Wondered why she rated a late night/early morning live thread.

Think I'll lurk for awhile!  We have friends and family scattered throughout the area.

Thanks.

17 posted on 08/26/2005 10:38:06 PM PDT by Racehorse (Where your treasure is, there will your heart be also.)
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To: Strategerist

I keep getting the impression they are surprised at the continued southward tilt to the motion.


18 posted on 08/26/2005 10:39:45 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Racehorse
Hurricane Katherine (Harris) Live Thread, Part III

I won't start the Katherine Harris threads until next year
;o)

19 posted on 08/26/2005 10:40:50 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

According to another forum with a person who has friends in the oil industry, they are already shutting down lots of rigs, and this thing is headed right toward them.

If it is as bad as it looks like it will be, and it goes close to the platforms, gas may shoot up to 3 bucks.


20 posted on 08/26/2005 10:41:22 PM PDT by rwfromkansas (http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=rwfromkansas)
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To: nuclady

You are very kind to say that. Thanks.


21 posted on 08/26/2005 10:41:46 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse
I keep getting the impression they are surprised at the continued southward tilt to the motion.

funny thing is a couple very respected models picked up on this days ago.....but were discounted...at least its good to know that she isnt really going off on her own...the models were just smarter than the humans this time...even though they appeared "out there".

22 posted on 08/26/2005 10:42:31 PM PDT by dennis1x
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To: rwfromkansas

Several hours ago, heard 21 rigs were already evacuated. See nwctwx post above with more info.


23 posted on 08/26/2005 10:42:35 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

hence calling it stubborn in their discussions


24 posted on 08/26/2005 10:43:47 PM PDT by rwfromkansas (http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=rwfromkansas)
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To: rwfromkansas

Yes--that was one of the hints!


25 posted on 08/26/2005 10:44:49 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: dennis1x

do you expect the ridge to really start moving soon...is the current NHC track good, or will the track have to shift west more?


26 posted on 08/26/2005 10:44:49 PM PDT by rwfromkansas (http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=rwfromkansas)
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To: rwfromkansas

ill go against my usual bias which is right (lol) and say yes, they will have to shift further west....right now you have 2 main models in ms, 1 a little west of NO and 1 right over NO.....i think new orleans is in real trouble with this one.


27 posted on 08/26/2005 10:46:54 PM PDT by dennis1x
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To: dennis1x

Good to see you here!


28 posted on 08/26/2005 10:49:52 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

thanks! i was out of town for the other biggie (Dennis, my namesake)


29 posted on 08/26/2005 10:51:09 PM PDT by dennis1x
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To: dennis1x

When emergency management officials think about the worst natural disasters that might befall America, San Francisco is always on the list...........



hink about the great cities in this country, and one of them will be New Orleans. On a recent evening, a scientist pulls up in the French Quarter. Joe Suhayda takes a plastic rod out of his trunk and he proceeds to show us what could happen the next time a hurricane hits New Orleans.

"OK, this is tool that I have a range rod," explains Suyhayda. "It will show us how high the water would be if we were hit with a Category Five Hurricane."

Which would mean what?

"Twenty feet of water above where we are standing now," says Suyhayda.

Twenty?

A Category Five Hurricane is the most powerful storm on a scientific scale. Suhayda plants the rod on the sidewalk next to a 200-year-old building that's all wrought iron balconies and faded brick and wooden shutters. Every click marks another foot that the flood would rise up this building.

I can't believe you're still going.

"Yeah, still going," says Suyhayda.

Until a couple months ago, Suhayda ran a prominent research center at Louisiana State University. They've developed the most detailed computer models that anybody's ever used to predict how hurricanes could affect this region. Studies suggest that there's roughly a one in six chance that a killer hurricane will strike New Orleans over the next 50 years.

Suhayda is still extending his stick as he describes what he is doing, "It's well above the second floor, just about to the rooftop."

It's hard to comprehend.

"Yes," agrees Suyahada, "it is really, to think that that much water would occur in this city during a catastrophic storm."

Do you expect this kind of hurricane—this kind of flooding—will hit New Orleans in our lifetime?

"Well I would say the probability is yes," says Suyahada. "In terms of past experience, we've had three storms that were near misses—that could have done at least something close to this."

Basically, the part of New Orleans that most Americans—most people around the world—think is New Orleans, would disappear.

Suyhayda agrees, "It would, that's right."


30 posted on 08/26/2005 10:51:31 PM PDT by Danette ("If we ever forget that we're one nation under God, then we will be a nation gone under.")
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To: NautiNurse

Let me add my thanks for all work you do with these threads. And the hope that one of these hurricane seasons soon, we can have threads to party for the lack of destructive winds and rain.


31 posted on 08/26/2005 10:51:32 PM PDT by Ingtar (Understanding is a three-edged sword : your side, my side, and the truth in between ." -- Kosh)
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To: dennis1x
i was out of town for the other biggie (Dennis, my namesake)

I believe several of us put out APB looking for you during that one.

32 posted on 08/26/2005 10:52:58 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

in the latest sat image, the eye has fully become visible.

I could swear it is jogging almost due south now though.


33 posted on 08/26/2005 10:53:59 PM PDT by rwfromkansas (http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=rwfromkansas)
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To: nwctwx

Here we go again, even higher energy prices for the Labor Day weekend. Thanks Katrina!


34 posted on 08/26/2005 10:54:45 PM PDT by M. Espinola (Freedom is never free)
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To: Danette

I'm in denial that New Orleans may take a direct hit. It's a world class city--and one of my favorites.


35 posted on 08/26/2005 10:55:02 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: Strategerist
Hey, new concept!! Awright! A 90+ degree imperceptible turn!

Face it, mate, the weatherguessers have scrod up big time on Katrina.

Their current guess is landfall between Natchez and N.O. -- offer you 6 to 5 against that THAT notion's wrong, too.

36 posted on 08/26/2005 10:55:42 PM PDT by SAJ
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To: rwfromkansas

Well the last sat pic was from before the sat eclipse, at midnight; it's a partial clearing of part of the eye and spinning around within it.

On radar it's clearly not moving due S.


37 posted on 08/26/2005 10:56:33 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: nwctwx

I am supposed to go to New Orleans on Monday to get my 15-year service award. We live in central Mississippi and were planning to leave right after lunch for the 2 1/2-hour drive. Right now, it looks like I might just stay right here at home. Thanks to you and everyone else on this thread for keeping me posted.


38 posted on 08/26/2005 10:56:47 PM PDT by pollyg107
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Comment #39 Removed by Moderator

To: Ingtar

Thank you! It's an easy task when there's a vested interest in the storms.


40 posted on 08/26/2005 10:57:00 PM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse
Very nice post, and very useful.

Sincere thanks!

41 posted on 08/26/2005 10:57:14 PM PDT by SAJ
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To: NautiNurse

I've never been there....I want to go someday.....so, I'm hoping it doesn't get hit. It's got to hit somewhere though.....sad.


42 posted on 08/26/2005 10:57:26 PM PDT by Danette ("If we ever forget that we're one nation under God, then we will be a nation gone under.")
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To: Strategerist

darn.

It would have been nice to say this would be Castro's problem.


43 posted on 08/26/2005 10:57:33 PM PDT by rwfromkansas (http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=rwfromkansas)
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To: NautiNurse

The chances of it going to TX are extremely slim. There is a trough coming into the west coast that will help build a ridge through the rockies and into TX. To the right of that, there will be the weakeness the storm is currently looking for. She is slowly trying to round the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge, then it's probably almost due north to the coast.


44 posted on 08/26/2005 10:57:45 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: SAJ

I remember one hurricane that went in circles in the gulf for days before finally making landfall. Can't remember which one it was but it was fun to watch. Does anyone else remember?


45 posted on 08/26/2005 10:58:20 PM PDT by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: SAJ

You've lost perception of the time span of a track forecast.


46 posted on 08/26/2005 10:58:50 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: pollyg107

you will not be going to new orleans on monday...i suspect contra flow will begin tomorrow unless the models change dramatically. even if things change in the next couple days on the track....nola will be a ghost town on monday. again..assuming the forecast models dont change much in the next 12 hours.


47 posted on 08/26/2005 10:59:10 PM PDT by dennis1x
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To: dennis1x

I think you're right. I just told my husband, who was going to go with me, that he probably won't need to miss work Monday afternoon. I have many dear friends and co-workers in New Orleans, so I'd better start getting the guest bedrooms ready for company.


48 posted on 08/26/2005 11:00:42 PM PDT by pollyg107
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To: Strategerist

I would expect a fully formed eye when the satellite eclipse ends. She appeared to be entering a good intensification cycle.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us_loop-12.gif

Water Vapor shows the outflow increasing to the NW of the system, this is usually a good indication that some turning will occur within the next 12 hours or so.


49 posted on 08/26/2005 11:00:45 PM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: NautiNurse

any dry air that could weaken this thing? In the WV, the air is not as moist to the north, but I do not know if it is dry enough to cause weakening. Any thoughts?


50 posted on 08/26/2005 11:01:15 PM PDT by rwfromkansas (http://www.xanga.com/home.aspx?user=rwfromkansas)
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