Forecast models converging on New Orleans area. However, Katrina has been delaying the anticipated turn.
| This thread has been locked, it will not receive new replies. |
|
Locked on 08/27/2005 8:52:34 PM PDT by Admin Moderator, reason:
Locked - New Thread http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1472123/posts |
Posted on 08/26/2005 10:25:04 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.
The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Images:
New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop
Northwest Florida Long Range Radar
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics
Live streaming:
WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Forecast models converging on New Orleans area. However, Katrina has been delaying the anticipated turn.
They delayed the call for the turn to the west until tomorrow. But I notice that the projected path still shows west for the first leg. Is this forcasterese for "we don't know?"
Tropical Storm Five Day Forecast Map (~23K)
This storm hasn't done much of anything expected to date.
recon about to reach the center....will be the first pressure reading in a while....ill update when it comes in.
Many thanks, NN. You do such a superb job!
Goodnight bump.
Thanks for the ping!!
I think Katrina is still intensely unpredictable for a couple reasons. There's no telling when exactly that ridge that's keeping the storm from tracking north will move westward as predicted, and once Katrina slips through it's altogether possible the hurricane will begin tracking back toward the northeast. The computer models seem to match pretty well right now, but they are all operating on the same basic assumption of when and how the ridge will move west.
The Weather Channel has now accepted the possibility that Texas may now be in play for landfall. I hope it doesn't hit anybody.
If she doesn't make a turn for several more hours, does Texas come into the picture?
This storm hasn't done much of anything expected to date.
----
I hear ya on that.
Just a couple of days ago, I thought it was gonna skirt the west side of florida and then head up thru georgia and up the coast .
None of the 0Z models have shifted W of Louisiana. A few have come back east a tad, but are generally all tightly clustered around New Orleans.
There never was any sort of sharp drastic turn forecast; just a gradual, imperceptible turn.
Nighters!
Wow, I stumbled in here because I misread the title: Hurricane Katherine (Harris) Live Thread, Part III.
Wondered why she rated a late night/early morning live thread.
Think I'll lurk for awhile! We have friends and family scattered throughout the area.
Thanks.
I keep getting the impression they are surprised at the continued southward tilt to the motion.
I won't start the Katherine Harris threads until next year
;o)
According to another forum with a person who has friends in the oil industry, they are already shutting down lots of rigs, and this thing is headed right toward them.
If it is as bad as it looks like it will be, and it goes close to the platforms, gas may shoot up to 3 bucks.
You are very kind to say that. Thanks.
funny thing is a couple very respected models picked up on this days ago.....but were discounted...at least its good to know that she isnt really going off on her own...the models were just smarter than the humans this time...even though they appeared "out there".
Several hours ago, heard 21 rigs were already evacuated. See nwctwx post above with more info.
hence calling it stubborn in their discussions
Yes--that was one of the hints!
do you expect the ridge to really start moving soon...is the current NHC track good, or will the track have to shift west more?
ill go against my usual bias which is right (lol) and say yes, they will have to shift further west....right now you have 2 main models in ms, 1 a little west of NO and 1 right over NO.....i think new orleans is in real trouble with this one.
Good to see you here!
thanks! i was out of town for the other biggie (Dennis, my namesake)
When emergency management officials think about the worst natural disasters that might befall America, San Francisco is always on the list...........
hink about the great cities in this country, and one of them will be New Orleans. On a recent evening, a scientist pulls up in the French Quarter. Joe Suhayda takes a plastic rod out of his trunk and he proceeds to show us what could happen the next time a hurricane hits New Orleans.
"OK, this is tool that I have a range rod," explains Suyhayda. "It will show us how high the water would be if we were hit with a Category Five Hurricane."
Which would mean what?
"Twenty feet of water above where we are standing now," says Suyhayda.
Twenty?
A Category Five Hurricane is the most powerful storm on a scientific scale. Suhayda plants the rod on the sidewalk next to a 200-year-old building that's all wrought iron balconies and faded brick and wooden shutters. Every click marks another foot that the flood would rise up this building.
I can't believe you're still going.
"Yeah, still going," says Suyhayda.
Until a couple months ago, Suhayda ran a prominent research center at Louisiana State University. They've developed the most detailed computer models that anybody's ever used to predict how hurricanes could affect this region. Studies suggest that there's roughly a one in six chance that a killer hurricane will strike New Orleans over the next 50 years.
Suhayda is still extending his stick as he describes what he is doing, "It's well above the second floor, just about to the rooftop."
It's hard to comprehend.
"Yes," agrees Suyahada, "it is really, to think that that much water would occur in this city during a catastrophic storm."
Do you expect this kind of hurricane—this kind of flooding—will hit New Orleans in our lifetime?
"Well I would say the probability is yes," says Suyahada. "In terms of past experience, we've had three storms that were near misses—that could have done at least something close to this."
Basically, the part of New Orleans that most Americans—most people around the world—think is New Orleans, would disappear.
Suyhayda agrees, "It would, that's right."
Let me add my thanks for all work you do with these threads. And the hope that one of these hurricane seasons soon, we can have threads to party for the lack of destructive winds and rain.
I believe several of us put out APB looking for you during that one.
in the latest sat image, the eye has fully become visible.
I could swear it is jogging almost due south now though.
Here we go again, even higher energy prices for the Labor Day weekend. Thanks Katrina!
I'm in denial that New Orleans may take a direct hit. It's a world class city--and one of my favorites.
Face it, mate, the weatherguessers have scrod up big time on Katrina.
Their current guess is landfall between Natchez and N.O. -- offer you 6 to 5 against that THAT notion's wrong, too.
Well the last sat pic was from before the sat eclipse, at midnight; it's a partial clearing of part of the eye and spinning around within it.
On radar it's clearly not moving due S.
I am supposed to go to New Orleans on Monday to get my 15-year service award. We live in central Mississippi and were planning to leave right after lunch for the 2 1/2-hour drive. Right now, it looks like I might just stay right here at home. Thanks to you and everyone else on this thread for keeping me posted.
Thank you! It's an easy task when there's a vested interest in the storms.
Sincere thanks!
I've never been there....I want to go someday.....so, I'm hoping it doesn't get hit. It's got to hit somewhere though.....sad.
darn.
It would have been nice to say this would be Castro's problem.
The chances of it going to TX are extremely slim. There is a trough coming into the west coast that will help build a ridge through the rockies and into TX. To the right of that, there will be the weakeness the storm is currently looking for. She is slowly trying to round the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge, then it's probably almost due north to the coast.
I remember one hurricane that went in circles in the gulf for days before finally making landfall. Can't remember which one it was but it was fun to watch. Does anyone else remember?
You've lost perception of the time span of a track forecast.
you will not be going to new orleans on monday...i suspect contra flow will begin tomorrow unless the models change dramatically. even if things change in the next couple days on the track....nola will be a ghost town on monday. again..assuming the forecast models dont change much in the next 12 hours.
I think you're right. I just told my husband, who was going to go with me, that he probably won't need to miss work Monday afternoon. I have many dear friends and co-workers in New Orleans, so I'd better start getting the guest bedrooms ready for company.
I would expect a fully formed eye when the satellite eclipse ends. She appeared to be entering a good intensification cycle.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us_loop-12.gif
Water Vapor shows the outflow increasing to the NW of the system, this is usually a good indication that some turning will occur within the next 12 hours or so.
any dry air that could weaken this thing? In the WV, the air is not as moist to the north, but I do not know if it is dry enough to cause weakening. Any thoughts?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
