Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VI

NOAA - NHC ^ | 28 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Katrina is bearing down on the North Central Gulf of Mexico and New Orleans metro area. Thousands of people did not evacuate New Orleans. Outer bands of Katrina are reaching the Louisiana coast.

Due to the size and intensity of this storm, all interests in the North Gulf of Mexico should be in their safe locations.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
WKRG-TV/DT Mobile (WMP) - mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_aug262005_1435_95518

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[THEUPMAN]

I would like to go on record , the gathering of thousands of people at the dome will be the single worst decision related to this whole thing.

It will be a perfect example of what happens when people depend on the government for their every need.

It's a shame that so many in our society have no sense of self reliance or responsibility.

[commish]

Idiots at eastern weather are going nuts because it is turning more north. They are saying it will hit Mobile instead, cloud tops are warming etc.

There is currently a due north wobble on the radar, but she is generally sticking to the nnw track. Even if she does go more northerly that brings her straight across about 30M E of NO. No way she gets any further E than pascagoula, and I give that a 10% chance at best. This will be an east LA, Gulfport, Biloxi landfall.

The cloudtops are warming. IT is called a fluctuation, if you look at almost all hurricanes, this happens late in the day (don't know the mechanics.) Then the clouds cool and deepen through the night. She may be slightly weaker , maybe 160 now, but she will crank back up before landfall. There is still no sheer, despite Steve Lyons wishful thinking and she is going tobe over the warmest water she has encountered in about 3 hrs. And that water holds 92 degrees all the way to landfall.

[Dog Gone]

Nita, I don't want to start the numbers guessing game for how many lives will be lost in this storm. It's going to rip through Mississippi tomorrow after doing its deed on New Orleans.

I think an estimate of hundred is far too low. It depends on how many idiots like my wife's cousin think the levees will protect them.

I really haven't been this upset in years. I need to turn off the computer and television and go for a run or something. My head is about to explode, and I don't even have a headache.

[MikefromOhio]

WHAT?!?

what are these people thinking.


CORRECTION:

I know those morons AREN'T thinking in the first place.

[jeffers]

I can't comment on the eventual course of the Mississippi, but I'd say the chances of having a navigable channel on Tuesday are zero in the absence of a Dennis-like weakening before landfall.

Miles and miles of windblown sand in the wrong place that all has to be dredged before the Mississippi opens up again.

[kx9088]

I dunno, I'm only a lowly mechanical designer working on my engineering degree very slowly but, the Superdome looks like a mushroom to me, I've seen mushrooms stick around through some pretty hefty storms a few small unrecorded twisters, while working on my grandparents farm during the summers.

To me, the only thing I would worry about is the vibrations. We had a bridge here in Philly shake violently and crack during a nice sunny afternoon due to the way a gust of wind cut through it's structure.

[Age of Reason]

" . . . you implied that all the folks in the Dome are of the "criminal class."

I didn't think so, but perhaps my post was ambiguously worded.

I have been defending the the people who cannot evacuate from generalizations, and who likely compose most of the people in that stadium.

See for example my post 104 on the following linked thread (one of several such I posted earlier): http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1472213/posts?page=104#104

[RummyChick]

I don't think Shep will live. This is unbelievable that he is staying in this hotel. Why the hell didn't he get out or at least go to the Super Dome.

Even Geraldo isn't there..that should tell him something.

[kjam22]

Shep seems just a little intense. Mrs Kjam says he must have torqued the boss somewhere along the line :)

[Enchante]

"Actually were it not for human-built structures the Mississippi would ALREADY be going down the Atchafalaya"

Yes, so I guess what I'm wondering is if the dams and levees that the Army Corps of Engineers has been using for decades to keep the Mississippi on its present course are vulnerable or not. I have no idea, I'm just wondering what it would take in terms of water flow to overwhelm the existing system, and would that have permanent effects?

[meyer]

No; they'll use Al Bore for a sandbag.

I'm not sure that a windbag can function adequately as a sandbag.

[NautiNurse]

I really appreciate your vortex data updates--thank you!

[WestCoastGal]

Doean't it make you wonder how the government will be able to help in the event of a large terrorist attack. I believe we will be all on our own.

[Clara Lou]

I suppose those businesses figure that boarded windows won't keep water out. It's just so sad.

[TomGuy]

All along the gulf coast, candidates are hoping to be Darwin Award winners.




Impending reduction in gene pool very likely by tomorrow.

[Major_Risktaker]

I agree!

I'll bet the guy would never have made the call to evac without the president calling.

Mr. Mayor, please EVACUATE you have the legal authority!

[MikefromOhio]

Amen

[Pyro7480]

[Peach]

My bet is that the superdome has a generator.

[sono]

There's a guy with a surfboard in the Alabama surf as Katrina head for NOLA.