Tropical Depression #18

NOAA - NHC ^ | 17 September 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Depression #18 has formed in the Atlantic Ocean north of Hispaniola. The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory

Color Enhanced IR Loop

Central Florida Hurricane Center offers a variety of info

[NautiNurse]

I'm not holding out a lot of hope for LA, though. Not as long as all the usual suspects still have their day jobs.

...and a state of emergency is already in effect, with FEMA already onsite to take all the heat.

[WhyisaTexasgirlinPA]

Well, of course, we are not below sea level to begin with so we have that going for us.............

[shield]

LOL...slow down, what's the forecast for this ridge building on top of us? Forecast for ridge is moving a bit west not east...what's changed since this AM?

[NautiNurse]

Slightly off topic - make sure y'all have your fire ants under control before heavy rains. I was just mauled by a surprise colony under and around a gravel walkway. They were disturbed because one of the irrigation hoses broke and flooded their nest.

They took it out on me big time. Quick application of diluted bleach and Caladryl are helping...for now. Otherwise, ouch!

[WhyisaTexasgirlinPA]

I flood the ones in my yard all the time........ I like to make them work again - then put out the poison

[NautiNurse]

After the first aid, I went after them with Talstar. The fire ants are now certifiably, undeniably, and most sincerely dead.

[WhyisaTexasgirlinPA]

My favorite kind........dead

[shield]

meador_11weather

Posted: Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:16 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I've become increasingly concerned by the northward shift of the models. Our hot ridge may stick around just long enough to take the storm (Rita?) far enough south that we just get some rain. On the other hand even a small northward bend of the track of a possible major hurricane could very well put Southeast Texas under a threat. As posted earlier, we are going to have several days of fingernail biting as the models flip and flop on their paths.

This would be an excellent time for everyone (especially coastal residents) to review hurricane plans. It may not be a bad idea today or tomorrow to hit the store and get water and maybe food (something that can be used anyway if not used this week.) If indeed Rita heads our way, the stores will be a madhouse.

This message is not trying to scare people as there is still a large amount of uncertainty concerning the ultimate path. Planning now may go a long way later in the week if we are indeed facing a storm.

_________________
Dan Meador
KHOU Weather

[janetjanet998]

um..this could be Katrina part 2....will be huge storm area wise and it will be moving over record, non-shallow, sea surface temperatures of 88-91 degrees ..pray it goes south of Florida..the Keys could be in huge trouble...miami isn;t out of the woods the either...then we will have to worry about it again later in the week

[Sam Cree]

Mineral spirits kiills fire ants pretty well, you don't even have to light it. OTOH, I am pretty sure it is against the law to dump it on the ground.

Hoping Dr. Mayfield is on the ball here, and "Rita" makes that shallow left hand turn into the Straits.

[WhyisaTexasgirlinPA]

Thanks - wouldn't want to break the law on my own property killing invading insects! lol

[The South Texan]

Thanks for the pings. I thought we might escape this seasonm, but it looks like we may get in on the action after all. Still early to tell, but those models sure don't look good.

Pray for us on the Texas coast!

[NautiNurse]

Can't pour mineral spirits et al here - waterfront. This was the mother lode of fire ant nests too.

[CindyDawg]

I just went babck to WU. One model has a direct hit to Brownsville and another very close. The other looks like Houston so that puts you where? Right in the middle?

[Dog Gone]

Here's the spaghetti map of current models.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

That should be enough to make every Texan start thinking that next weekend could be bad.

Yes, the models can and will change. But nearly all the models put the storm into the gulf early next week.

[Dog Gone]

I know how I get rid of fire ants on my rural property. About a pint of kerosene on each mound. Wait 15 seconds. Light.

I love the smell of roasted ants in the morning. Smells like victory.

[CindyDawg]

This is getting confusing. Are there two storms looking at Texas or is Rita #18?

[RGVTx]

We definitely have to keep a watch on this one!

[Ditter]

Good advice. We just got home from Sam's with hurricane supplies, water, peanut butter, crackers, Cheezits, pig lips and cow eyeballs oops I mean Vienna Sausages. LOL!

[The South Texan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
315 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2005

.LONG-TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAJOR ISSUE THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE IS TROPICAL STORM RITA WHICH IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE GULFMEX
AND EVENTUALLY BECOME A HURRICANE. MAJOR QUESTION ON WHERE THE
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY GO ALL DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE UPPER RIDGE
MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND HOW FAST RITA MOVES. THE BETTER THE
RIDGE MAINTAINS ITSELF AND THE FASTER THE RITA MOVES...THE FURTHER
SOUTH IT WILL STAY. IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOONER AND THE SYSTEM
IS SLOWER...THEN THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THIS STORM TO HIT THE
TEXAS COAST. AT THIS TIME...AND AFTER HAVING DISCUSSED THIS WITH
KEWX AND KBRO (AND 12 PLANET WITH KHGX)...WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW HPC
TRACK FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 WHICH WOULD PUT THE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
CRP AND BRO. OBVIOUSLY...ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM WFO CRP AND NHC CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND A LOT OF TIME TO GO
BEFORE THE TRACK OF RITA BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT COAST
THEN ALL AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FORECAST TRACK WILL DETERMINE
HOW POPS WILL BE NEEDED TO BE ARRANGED LATER IN THE FORECAST. UNTIL
THEN...SIG WEATHER NIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGE REMAINS BUT
DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY (DID INCREASE LOW TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO FOR COLLABORATION).
DECREASED TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BASED ON THE FACT
AREA WILL LIKELY HAVE RAIN-COOLED AIR AND WILL ALSO BE CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY (BETTER TO GO WITH GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES).