Tropical Depression #18

NOAA - NHC ^ | 17 September 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[The South Texan]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
330 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2005

.DISCUSSION...500MB RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COASTLINE WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS PRODUCING DRY
AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY FOR
MOISTURE INCREASING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MAV
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS SLIGHTLY TOO WARM FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND
SLIGHTLY TOO COOL FOR HIGHS TUESDAY SO WILL ADJUST MOS MAX TEMP
NUMBERS SLIGHTLY.

ALL EYES TURN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL STORM
RITA ENTERS THE SOUTHEAST GULF TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HURRICANE AS
FORECASTED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE TRACK BRINGS RITA
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WITH THAT MOISTURE SHOULD BE
LIMITED ACROSS SOUTH TX ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. PER
COORDINATION CALL WITH WFO KCRP...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS
AND WINDS BASED ON A POSSIBLE LANDFALL ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST
SATURDAY MORNING.

[Dog Gone]

I'm calling 18, "Rita". She's not that officially, yet.

[RDTF]

bookmark

[NautiNurse]

I have a Rita thread ready to go when it is official...

[Carolinamom]

When does the hurricane season END?

[NautiNurse]

November 30...

[RGVTx]

Looks like we're in for some worries. After reading that last forecast, I keep thinking how darned accurate they've been this season. Gonna be a long week.

[CindyDawg]

Ok. Thanks. I've been watching it as #18 and when I saw your post I was worried that there were two.

[Arizona Carolyn]

Isn't this pretty much on track to follow the hurricane that went across Yucatan and hit near the Mexico/Texas border in July?

[Arizona Carolyn]

I'm wondering when they will have to decide whether to move all the ships currently in NOLA and Mississippi acting as housing? Could be a real crimp to National Guard, NOPD and a myriad of other people trying to rebuild infrastructure.

[jsh3180]

Aieeeeee, here we go again...From the Florida Keys....all schools and government offices closed tomorrow through Wednesday. I have been in Jacksonville, Fl for the last few days but drove home here to the Lower Keys a day early due to .errrrr.Rita.....just got back 30 mins ago. Neighbors putting up shutters.....don't think I will YET.

Time to clean up yard furniture and same old standard precautions...AGAIN.

[WhyisaTexasgirlinPA]

I don't know about you, but I was thrilled when "Cindy" disappeared and will be even happier when Cindy sheehan disappears as well........ I am tired of logging on and hearing everyone saying Cindy like it's a bad thing.......... ;^)

[shield]

A local old timer states:

"I removed the BAMD/BAMM/BAMS/XTRAP/LBAR/ETA models because they're pretty much worthless in the subtropics (LBAR is worthless everywhere, XTRAP is a simple extrapolation). So what you see there is the new GFDL (in red) taking Rita on a WSW jog near western Cuba then back to the WNW-NW toward the TX coast. The UKMET is the model taking Rita inland near Brownsville at sunrise Friday. NOGAPS (pink track) still insists on a BoC impact to the south. The GFS (AVN) is insistent on a landfall near Corpus Christi next Satuday. The ECMWF (not plotted) takes it inland between Tampico and Brownsville late Friday or on Saturday."

[Dog Gone]

You're right to chuck those models that don't perform well in the tropics. On the other hand, though, none of the models are very good five days out and we're basically just speculating at this point.

Texas definitely has a high pressure ridge over it for the first part of the week, but that's not the critical time period. Whether it moves or holds will make all the difference.

The worst case scenario, of course, is that Rita makes landfall just southwest of Galveston as Cat 4 or 5 storm. That would push the storm surge into Galveston Bay and knock out a huge percentage of the country's refining capacity. The best case scenario is that she slams into Mexico, although we get a lot of our oil imports from the Bay of Campeche, so even the best case isn't good.

I have a feeling it's going to be a long week, with a very active hurricane thread here at FR.