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Posted on 09/17/2005 8:09:31 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Aw, Nagin's got plenty of time to line up those school bus drivers.
You already told me you haven't been doing much the past 24 hours. Made some chicken soup. Sat around the house, tended to the garden. Deja vu...
My local weather, here in the DFW area said the hurricane would be named RITA and could be in the GOM next weekend?
My weatherman has it projected into the Mexico coast...but, like you said...you never know...
I hope Mayor Nagin feels REAL comfortable telling people to c'mon back to NO.
ping!
Well he has everything in place now.
That's why the first thread was pulled. There were so many updates at 11PM, the NHC storm tracks were posted to the wrong url. When they changed everything, we ended up with Ophelia at the top of the TD 18 thread.
Fasten your seatbelts...
Heads up for sure!! Terrible to say, but if it would be weak enough, we could sure use something to break the dry spell we're in.
I'm SW of San Antonio and haven't had rain at the house in 2 months other than 1/2" last week that was powder in a matter of hours!!
When the storms clouds get over us, they part! Oh well, it will come someday.
Stay safe everyone and alert!
Nana
satellite imagery and nearby buoy and ship observations indicate the tropical disturbance located east of the turks and caicos has acquired enough convective organization to be classified as a tropical depression. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on a satellite intensity estimate of 25 kt from TAFB and earlier ship reports. Banding has increased in the eastern semicircle and several moderate convective cells have recently developed around the surface center.
The initial motion estimate is 290/09. TD-18 is expected to move west-northwestward for the next 48 hours toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge that lies just east of Florida. After that... most of the global models agree that the weakness will gradually fill as the ridge over Texas and the Gulf Coast builds eastward. However...the exact timing of the filling rdige weakness is uncertain and that will determine how far north the cyclone moves before it turns westward. The global models and the GFDL model keep the system over or south of the Florida Keys. Only the Canadian model and the tightly packed BAM models bring the storm across the southern portion of the Florida Peninsula in 60-72 hours. Since the depression is still in the formative stage...the circulation center could easily develop any where within the convective cloud mass... which could result in north-south shifts in the forecast track during the next day or so. All interests in the Bahamas...South Florida...the Florida Keys...and central and western Cuba should pay close attention to this system over the next few days.
The intensity forecast is much more of a challenge than the track forecast is. The vertical shear is forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt in the 36-60 hour time frame...while the cyclone is over 30c and warmer SSTs. This would favor rapid intensification if dry mid-level air does not get entrained into the center. Afterwards... the GFS-based SHIPS intensity model gradually increases the westerly shear to more than 20 kt and levels off the intensity at 73 kt. However...the NOGAPS...UKMET...and Canadian models show a 200 mb anticyclone with an east-west oriented ridge axis extending across the Florida Keys by 48 hours. Even the GFS develops a similar upper-level pattern...only across the southern Florida Peninsula. The close proximity to such a favorable upper-level outflow pattern suggests that this tropical cyclone could be much stronger by 72 hours than what is currently forecast by the SHIPS model. The 18z GFDL model rapidly intensifies the system into a 120-kt hurricane in 72 hours. While that rate of intensification may be a little excessive...this system reaching strong category 2 status within the next 72 hours is certainly a viable scenario.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 18/0300z 22.0n 69.7w 25 kt 12hr VT 18/1200z 22.5n 71.5w 35 kt 24hr VT 19/0000z 23.1n 73.6w 40 kt 36hr VT 19/1200z 23.6n 75.5w 50 kt 48hr VT 20/0000z 24.0n 77.7w 60 kt 72hr VT 21/0000z 24.5n 82.0w 70 kt 96hr VT 22/0000z 25.0n 86.0w 75 kt 120hr VT 23/0000z 25.0n 90.5w 80 kt
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - mms://216.242.118.141/broadband
It looks like it could go right up into the Gulf.
Very real possiblity for unexpected houseguests in the next day or so if this storm takes off. Don't think my mother wants to stay on the FL east coast through her namesake storm.
thank you!
Didn't I see a post here a day or so ago that showed THREE tropical waves? There was one very close to Africa. The closer to Africa and further south they develop, the more likely they are to hit FL area.
Well, at least for the moment, the quality globals all bend it SW and plow it into the Bay of Campeche and then into Mexico once in the Gulf.
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