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Posted on 09/18/2005 1:56:41 PM PDT by NautiNurse
You're right to chuck those models that don't perform well in the tropics. On the other hand, though, none of the models are very good five days out and we're basically just speculating at this point.
Texas definitely has a high pressure ridge over it for the first part of the week, but that's not the critical time period. Whether it moves or holds will make all the difference.
The worst case scenario, of course, is that Rita makes landfall just southwest of Galveston as Cat 4 or 5 storm. That would push the storm surge into Galveston Bay and knock out a huge percentage of the country's refining capacity. The best case scenario is that she slams into Mexico, although we get a lot of our oil imports from the Bay of Campeche, so even the best case isn't good.
I have a feeling it's going to be a long week, with a very active hurricane thread here at FR.
Are the DSL problems from Katrina?
Haven't let you down yet.
He doesn't care, he lives in Dallas.
I am so glad I stocked up for Katrina and didn't really need most of it!
susie
What is the name of the Liberal Mayor there?
You in the Keys Susie?
Haven't let you down yet.
Eeeesh...
so what is the all time record for number of active storms on the NHC website?
Earth Link had some problems along the Gulf Coast due to Katrina but, I think they're cleared up now. At one point, I couldn't even reach them by phone.
bookmarked to find
No, not the Keys, Delray. But I stocked up for Katrina, just in case. We ended up out of electricity for 2 days anyway, but that was because when they got out here to fix our neighborhoods electrical power, they discovered a beehive in the transformer! They had to wait til a beekeeper came to take them away. I was SO glad I bought that battery operated fan by the second night!
susie
Dang! Already? Wasn't it just a depression about 15 minutes ago?
Too early to tell where this one is going. Those computer models put a landfall anywhere from Veracruz, Mexico to Beaumont, TX. Really big cone of uncertainty.
Guess RITA may be heading your way. Hope all stays well for you.
Let's try to find the silver lining, blam. You don't need to prune your trees in the next year or so, right?
Leni
EVery time I hear ''cone of uncertainty'' it makes me think of the cone of silence....am I the only one old enough to remember THAT?
susie :)
No, you're not. But, then, I can remember Fess Parker, Gentle Ben and Flipper...:-)
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