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Barone: Why Democrats won't want to oppose Samuel Alito
US News & World Report ^ | November 1, 2005 | Michael Barone

Posted on 11/01/2005 4:23:15 PM PST by RWR8189

George W. Bush has nominated Judge Samuel Alito of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit to the Supreme Court. Judge Alito has a strong record academically and in government. He was U.S. attorney for New Jersey, a high-pressure job in a state where corruption is—how shall we say this?—not unknown. To be confirmed for that position, Alito would have to have been approved by New Jersey's two Democratic senators at the time, Bill Bradley and Frank Lautenberg, the latter of whom is again serving in the Senate. From my knowledge of those two men, I believe they would not have approved Alito unless they were convinced that he was (a) highly competent, (b) completely honest, and (c) not likely to use his power as a prosecutor for political purposes. They certainly understood the importance of the job and would not, I think, have given their approval lightly. Here's what Lautenberg and Bradley said about Alito's appointment as U.S. attorney.

Conservatives who opposed the nomination of Harriet Miers were, as everyone expected, delighted by the choice of Alito. So was Hugh Hewitt, the conservative radio talk-show host, blogger, and lawyer, who steadfastly supported Miers. I think it's safe to predict that all Republican senators will support Alito, with the possible exception of Olympia Snowe. I don't think Lincoln Chafee will oppose him, for reasons that I'll get to later in the post.

As for the Democrats, they're in a mood to fight and, if possible, to filibuster. Charles Schumer, always fast to the microphone, issued the following statement at 7:44 a.m., before the president spoke: "It is sad that the president felt he had to pick a nominee likely to divide America instead of choosing a nominee in the mold of Sandra Day O'Connor, who would unify us. This controversial nominee, who would make the court less diverse and far more conservative, will get very careful scrutiny from the Senate and from the American people." Nothing here on Alito's sterling credentials, even though Schumer was careful to show respect for John G. Roberts's sterling credentials when his nomination was announced.

On this appointment the Democrats are caught between two constituencies. On one side is the feminist left. They have to oppose Alito if they want the people on their direct-mail lists ever to send in money again. The reason is that Alito wrote a dissent in 1991 upholding the Pennsylvania abortion law challenged in Planned Parenthood v. Casey. The law in question required the woman seeking an abortion to give notification to her husband, with some exceptions. "(1) [The husband] is not the father of the child, (2) he cannot be found after diligent effort, (3) the pregnancy is the result of a spousal sexual assault that has been reported to the authorities, or (4) [the woman seeking an abortion] has reason to believe that notification is likely to result in the infliction of bodily injury upon her." Judge Alito followed the criteria set by O'Connor—whom, if he is confirmed, he will replace—which he said were the decisive opinions on the Supreme Court. He wrote, "Although the plaintiffs and supporting amici argue that Section 3209 will do little if any good and will produce appreciable adverse effects, the Pennsylvania legislature presumably decided that the law on balance would be beneficial. We have no authority to overrule that legislative judgment even if we deem it 'unwise' or worse. U.S. Railroad Retirement Board v. Fritz, 449 U.S. at 175, 101 S.Ct. at 459. 'We should not forget that "legislatures are ultimate guardians of the liberty and welfare of the people in quite as great a degree as the courts."'Akron v. Akron Center for Reproductive Health, 462 U.S. at 465, 103 S.Ct. at 2511 (O'Connor, J., dissenting), quoting Missouri, K. & T.R. Co. v. May, 194 U.S. 267, 270, 24 S.Ct. 638, 639, 48 L.Ed. 971 (1904)."

The Casey in the case, by the way, was the late Pennsylvania governor Bob Casey, whose son, Bob Casey Jr., will be the Democratic candidate for Senate in Pennsylvania in 2006 and who is currently leading Sen. Rick Santorum in the polls. Presumably, Casey Jr. would not urge a vote against Alito for his opinion upholding a law strongly backed by Casey's father. Still, I expect that left liberal Democrats like Schumer, Edward Kennedy, and Richard Durbin are itching to oppose this nomination and will try to filibuster. They believe there's a chance a filibuster can work.

But if they filibuster, they risk alienating another constituency, Italian-Americans. To understand the risk, consider the number of votes cast against the confirmation of Antonin Scalia in 1986. That number was zero. Democrats knew Scalia was a judicial conservative—he had a paper trail as an academic—but they also knew that Italian-Americans very much wanted to see a fellow Italian-American on the Supreme Court. For many years I have attended events sponsored by the National Italian American Foundation, an organization established in the 1970s in large part to dispel the Mafia stereotype. NIAF has been proud to seat the director of the FBI at the head table as its annual dinner. It was proud that in 1984 the four Democratic and Republican nominees for president and vice president (including Geraldine Ferraro, remember) attended its dinner—the only time in American history, I believe, that four nominees attended a single event.

The late Peter Rodino, longtime chairman of the House Judiciary Committee and a liberal Democrat on most issues, once told me with tears in his eyes that one of his greatest regrets in life is that his father did not live long enough to see the first Italian-American on the United States Supreme Court. In 1987 I spent a day in Wilmington, Del., with Joseph Biden, who was running for president. He took me around the town, introduced me to his mother and father, and took me to lunch at a little restaurant in Wilmington's Little Italy. He knew everyone there very well and was very warmly received. The thought later occurred to me: There was no way this guy was ever going to vote against the first Italian-American on the Supreme Court. And no way any senators from Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts were, either. They all had their friends in their state's Little Italy, and they weren't going to disappoint them. Scalia seems aware of this. He's reportedly willing to speak to any Italian-American organization that invites him.

Italian-Americans are less defensive today and probably less ethnically conscious. The political risks of opposing an Italian-American are therefore probably less than in 1983. But they're not zero. I wonder whether Tom Carper of Delaware (where 7 percent of the population in the 2000 census said they were of Italian ancestry), Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey (14 percent), Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York (11 percent), Christopher Dodd and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut (14 percent), and Jack Reed of Rhode Island (14 percent) really want to go to the length of supporting a filibuster against an Italian-American judge with sterling credentials and majority support in the Senate. I'm pretty sure that Lincoln Chafee, facing a conservative opponent in the Republican primary in Rhode Island, the state with the nation's highest percentage of Italian-Americans, doesn't want to oppose Alito. If I were giving him political advice, I would certainly advise him not to do so. As much as one quarter of Republican primary voters there will have Italian names or Italian ancestors. And what about Patrick Leahy of Vermont, who is of Italian descent (on his mother's side) as well? He's often been given a place of honor at NIAF dinners. I'm not sure he'd want to attend if he opposed Alito. The audience there is, to judge from responses at the dinners I've attended, about half Republican and half Democratic. But I'll bet they'll be close to 100 percent for Alito.

Note that George W. Bush was careful to point out that Alito's father was an Italian immigrant. I don't think the Democrats failed to notice that.

The hearings will probably make some difference. Alito's supporters argue that he is a very careful and polite judge, not given to sarcastic and humorous remarks as Justice Scalia is. He certainly seems to have a solid grounding in the law. He may or may not have the charm Roberts showed, but he seems likely to make a very positive impression. My guess is that the left Democrats are not going to be able to get the 41 votes they need for a filibuster. Sens. Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Kent Conrad of North Dakota, both up for re-election next year in solidly Republican states, voted for Roberts. So did Byron Dorgan of North Dakota and Max Baucus of Montana. They're not likely filibusterers. Bill Nelson of Florida, up for re-election next year, would take some political risks by opposing him. That's five—enough to defeat a filibuster right there. When you add to that the senators listed above from states with large numbers of Italian-Americans, many of whom in my judgment will be lukewarm at best about joining a filibuster, you can see why I think Schumer and company will not get up the head of steam they need.

Footnote: Here's the National Italian American Foundation's statement on the nomination of Judge Alito. It comes from A. Kenneth Ciongoli, chairman of the foundation.

The National Italian American Foundation (NIAF) applauds President George W. Bush on his nomination of Samuel A. Alito Jr., a judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, to the position of associate justice of the United States Supreme Court.Judge Alito, whose father immigrated to the United States from Italy, is highly respected in the judicial community for his constitutional knowledge and his impeccable character.President Bush has chosen an individual whose intellect and qualifications are above reproach. We are proud and fortunate that he shares our Italian heritage. Washington, D.C. Oct. 31, 2005.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 109th; alito; barone; bush43; filibuster; judgealito; judicialnominees; michaelbarone; samalito; samuelalito; scalito; scotus; senatedemocrats

1 posted on 11/01/2005 4:23:17 PM PST by RWR8189
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To: RWR8189
Specter, Graham and De Wine. McCain sounding wobbly. Go ahead and filibuster Dems, there is a nuke in your future!
2 posted on 11/01/2005 4:26:04 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Merry Alitomas!)
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To: RWR8189

He's in like Flynn!


3 posted on 11/01/2005 4:36:29 PM PST by Ninian Dryhope
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To: RWR8189

Bush has made the Democrats an offer they can't refuse.


4 posted on 11/01/2005 4:40:38 PM PST by Clintonfatigued (Sam Alito Deserves To Be Confirmed)
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To: MNJohnnie
I don't think the Rats will filibuster. They can't afford to lose that fight, so they'll refuse to have it.

The high court moves one-half seat to the right. Kennedy becomes the swing vote.

They can live with that.

If Ginsburg's or Stevens's seat comes open then all hell breaks lose.

They'll have nothing to lose by filibustering because it's Custer's Last Stand as far the liberals are concerned.

5 posted on 11/01/2005 4:41:50 PM PST by Dog Gone
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To: MNJohnnie

"Go ahead and filibuster Dems, there is a nuke in your future!"

Or at least the trunk of someone's car. ~;^D


6 posted on 11/01/2005 4:47:23 PM PST by billhilly (If you're lurking here from DU (Democrats unglued), I trust this post will make you sick.)
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To: RWR8189

I wonder how much longer it's going to be until political assassination is the only tool left to the Democrats?


7 posted on 11/01/2005 5:01:39 PM PST by Mr Ramsbotham (Laws against sodomy are honored in the breech.)
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To: Dog Gone

It would be to our advantage to use the constitutional option now to replace O'Connor, that way we are ensured that only 50+ VPOTUS are needed to confirm the next nominee.

Some wobbly RINOs might be scared to go nuclear when we are replacing Stevens or Ginsberg.


8 posted on 11/01/2005 5:03:12 PM PST by RWR8189 (George Allen 2008)
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To: All
What I've been saying for days (though not as well as Barone, of course): the 10 Dem Senators in "red" states up for re-election in '06 and '08 would have to be nuts to oppose a qualified, experienced conservative judge, especially after the deference shown Clinton in votes on Ginsburg (96-3) and Breyer (87-9).

Now if we could only get the people in these states to realize that continually electing Dems to the Senate and voting strongly for Republicans for President is schizophrenic...

9 posted on 11/01/2005 5:03:24 PM PST by BushMeister ("We are a nation that has a government - not the other way around." --Ronald Reagan)
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To: RWR8189

That's exactly why I think the Democrats will cave before we can use it on this nomination. If they are even remotely intelligent, they'll adopt the "live to fight another day" principle.


10 posted on 11/01/2005 5:05:14 PM PST by Dog Gone
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To: Mr Ramsbotham

It seems like they've been hinting at that for some time.


11 posted on 11/01/2005 5:07:22 PM PST by JusPasenThru (http://giinthesky.blogspot.com)
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To: RWR8189

eh...Italian Americans?...I find it too hard to buy what this author is saying. Italian is not the issue, but religion is - such as if his Catholicity is his foundation for his conservativism. Bottom line is that he is conservative, so many conservative Catholics (Italian or otherwise) like myself will support him.


12 posted on 11/01/2005 5:34:41 PM PST by right-wingin_It
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To: RWR8189
"He was U.S. attorney for New Jersey, a high-pressure job in a state where corruption is—how shall we say this?—not unknown"

You gotta love Barone.

13 posted on 11/01/2005 5:51:09 PM PST by Senator Goldwater
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To: RWR8189

I understand the reasoning here, and figure it is probably fairly accurate.

But, gee whiz, in reality what does having italian blood have to do with the price of tea in China? Nothing. It is an extremely sad commentary on our society when attributes such as the birthplace of one's parents are considered part of qualifications for such a [or any] position.

And the real irony here is that the people that put the most stock in sex and race as qualifications (i.e. Bush should have appointed a minority or woman for balance) are the first to claim we shouldn't single people out because of their race and/or sex. But that is all they do, all of the time. And republicans do a very poor job of challenging them on it.


14 posted on 11/01/2005 5:58:39 PM PST by ChildOfThe60s (If you can remember the 60s......you weren't really there.)
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To: Mr Ramsbotham

I suppose someone had to actually voice that...


15 posted on 11/01/2005 5:59:51 PM PST by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: Dog Gone

The problem is, that the longer they wait to run a filibuster, the worse their political problem the next time, on the next nominee.

Suppose, for example, Ginsberg or Stevens were to leave the Court, and The President were to replace that person with someone even as "moderate" as Kennedy --- that would really cook the liberal goose - yet could they filibuster such a candidate? (Suppose for purposes of this discussion, judicial philosophy of Gonzales...)

Their problem is right now... with this nomination ... the next one may be too late because even a moderate justice may well hose them.


16 posted on 11/01/2005 6:05:14 PM PST by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: ChildOfThe60s

I believe that the R philosophy of that question is that those who can be persuaded to vote Republican to begin with are smart enough to figure out the bigotry themselves, without having to be bashed over the head with it. Before talk radio and the internet, the R's had that philosophy, stuck with it and you had to be analyze it for yourself. Now, anybody who has ears will be exposed without the R politicians having to engage the question directly.


17 posted on 11/01/2005 6:10:27 PM PST by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: AFPhys
I think you're probably right, which is why their position is deteriorating all the time. Bush could get away, I think, with nominating Gonzales or Miers next time and put the left in a real bind.

I don't think he'll do that, though. His short list was Miers, Alito, and Luttig. Miers blew her chances by failing to wow the senators in personal visits, and Bush doesn't give second chances. He never has.

I'd have to say that unless something new comes up with Luttig, he's the choice to replace Ginsburg or Stevens if neither is able to outlast the Bush Presidency.

A lot depends one whether another vacancy occurs before or after the 2006 elections and whether that changes the senatorial lineup.

18 posted on 11/01/2005 6:17:24 PM PST by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone

100% agreement with your post - every single detail.


19 posted on 11/01/2005 6:35:00 PM PST by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: Dog Gone

Re-reading your post...

I would certainly love it if he were to succumb to "political correctness" and nominate JRB for the next opening...

LOL

Apoplexy unlimited for the Demodogs then!

(SNAP *** *** time for me to wake up from this wet dream...)


20 posted on 11/01/2005 6:38:27 PM PST by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: RWR8189
Isn't playing the race card in support of Judge Alito as odious as doing so in opposition to his appointment?
21 posted on 11/01/2005 6:52:23 PM PST by billorites (freepo ergo sum)
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To: billorites
Isn't playing the race card in support of Judge Alito as odious as doing so in opposition to his appointment?

It worked with Scalia, and its all part of the game. A game the Democraps are particularly fond of playing and in fact invented, I might add.

22 posted on 11/01/2005 6:59:49 PM PST by Nonstatist
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To: AFPhys
He might name JRB, but it depends on the timing. I don't think any of the new appellate court justices were seriously considered for an early promotion to the Supreme Court.

A year might make a difference. Two surely would.

But Bush is not an impulsive man. He's neither afraid to nominate her nor in a rush to nominate her to satisfy the FR crowd. His decision will depend on the factors at the time.

I've had a little experience in dealing with Dubya. He's greatly misunderestimated.

23 posted on 11/01/2005 7:22:11 PM PST by Dog Gone
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To: billhilly
Go ahead and filibuster Dems, there is a nuke in your future!" Or at least the trunk of someone's car. ~;^D by billhilly (If you're lurking here from DU (Democrats unglued), I trust this post will make you sick.)

HHHHHaaaaaaaa! Be afraid Dems. It Scalitoween and the "Right Wing Extremists" are coming for your Court. We took your House. We took your Senate. We took your President. And now, your last bastion falls to our assault. Are you scared yet Democrats?

You should be. YOU SHOULD BE!

24 posted on 11/01/2005 7:26:21 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Merry Alitomas!)
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To: Dog Gone
They'll have nothing to lose by filibustering because it's Custer's Last Stand as far the liberals are concerned

Now there is a consumation devotely to be wished for. Who gets to be Sitting Bull to Harry Reid's Custer?

25 posted on 11/01/2005 7:29:36 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Merry Alitomas!)
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To: RWR8189
Lucca Brassi is for him too!
26 posted on 11/01/2005 7:36:16 PM PST by fish hawk (I am only one, but I am not the only one.)
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To: Dog Gone
Bush doesn't give second chances. He never has.

One thing's for sure - he's not offering Laura another chance to pick one, and she's not going to be asking for it either.

27 posted on 11/01/2005 9:37:19 PM PST by CardCarryingMember.VastRightWC (The heart of the wise man inclines to the right, but the heart of the fool to the left. - Eccl. 10:2)
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To: Mr Ramsbotham
Whenever Barone speaks, I listen and he points out many things that are valid as h*ll.

So far as your comment, I've had that worry cross my mind too. Especially since leftists such as Randi Rhodes have already broached the subject more than once on the air waves no less. We see placards supporting those very thoughts at leftist rallies too. And they call Conservatives 'reactionary' ???

Nam Vet

28 posted on 11/01/2005 9:54:22 PM PST by Nam Vet ("I was present at the birth of a political jihad.")
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To: RWR8189

If I was ginsberg or stevens I would quit now, hoping that they would get a more "moderate" nominee.


29 posted on 11/01/2005 10:03:35 PM PST by zendari
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To: RWR8189
I don't think the whole Italian ethnic thing would have come up at all (except perhaps to be derided as a cheap ploy on the part of the Republicans) if the DNC hadn't raised the issue themselves by a remarkably stupid insinuation that Alito had been soft on Mafia figures. That was just the sort of political thumb-hammering we are beginning to expect out of a party in utter disarray.

I hope they do filibuster - that'd be even worse. The DNC blew this one before it even began.

30 posted on 11/01/2005 10:12:47 PM PST by Billthedrill
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To: ChildOfThe60s
It is not so much his blood but his ideas and cultural that he grew up in. An Italian-american Catholic family has certain beliefs and views that say a southern baptist family doesn't. To vote against someone like Alito that has all the qualifications for no reason points to them voting against his beliefs which translates pretty well to the rank and file Regan Democrats that the liberal left does not support their views which means a no vote in the next election. Now if he wasn't qualified or he had spoken or acted out of character from those views that would be different.
31 posted on 11/01/2005 11:01:52 PM PST by unseen
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To: RWR8189

bttt


32 posted on 11/01/2005 11:11:03 PM PST by nopardons
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To: unseen

IOW, someone of italian descent is harder for the left to cast as one of the "great unwashed" as they do with southerners and people of faith. They would if they could.


33 posted on 11/02/2005 4:49:11 AM PST by ChildOfThe60s (If you can remember the 60s......you weren't really there.)
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To: RWR8189
I find it highly doubtful that the Demolibs will filibuster.

First, at least two Republican members of the "Gang of Fourteen" have openly stated they would not support a filbuster. DeWine is up for re-election next year, and his son's defeat in Ohio after the first Gang of Fourteen fiasco sent a clear message from Ohio voters they aren't going to put up with any more nonsense from him. Graham is up for re-election in '08, and he has no doubt gotten an earful from his constituency. Even if every other Gang of Fourteen member sides with the Dems, that leaves a 50-50 tie on the Consitutional Option, with Cheney's vote the tie-breaker. Bye-bye filibuster.

Given that, the Dems won't want to waste the filibuster fight on someone who would only replace a relatively conservative Justice. With the distinct possibility of Stevens and/or Ginsburg retiring, they'd be much wiser to save the big fight for that nomination, which would have a far larger impact on the right-left makeup of the Court. My gut tells me Ginsburg and Stevens will try to hang on at least until after the '06 elections, if not those in '08, hoping the Dems will pick up enough seats to regain control of the house (or regain the Presidency in '08) or at least make the Constitutional Option impossible.

I think we'll hear the required whining and moaning and smearing by the Demolibs, after which Alito will be confirmed by a comfortable margin.

34 posted on 11/02/2005 7:18:32 AM PST by krazyrep (Demolib Playbook Rule #2: If you can't beat 'em, filibuster. If that doesn't work, go to court.)
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To: krazyrep
I find it highly doubtful that the Demolibs will filibuster.

It does look less likely, as more people speak up for this very well-chosen nominee. Well done, Mr. Bush!

35 posted on 11/02/2005 9:16:16 AM PST by Dick Holmes
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To: ChildOfThe60s

no doubt


36 posted on 11/02/2005 12:24:25 PM PST by unseen
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To: Dick Holmes
True. but that leads to the question why didn't Bush nominate a conservative the first time around. So many people said he wanted to avoid a fight. But the libs are the minority who really cares what they think. the Reps have got to get out of the loser mentality. Bork is gone get over it.
37 posted on 11/02/2005 12:31:01 PM PST by unseen
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To: krazyrep
I keep hearing about Stevens and Ginsburg holding on until at least the '06 elections and possibly '08 in the hopes of Democrat gains in Congress or possibly a Democrat president. I find it interesting that no one points out how risky a personal and political strategy that is, particularly for Stevens, who was appointed by a Republican president (ok, maybe it doesn't mean that much to him after all). How would you like your legacy to be that you held on to your court seat, in failing health and against the wishes of your friends and family, for the sheer partisan notion of having your seat filled by someone of similar POLITICAL leanings? Let's say the strategy backfires and Republicans keep their majority in '06 AND win the '08 presidential election (not entirely far-fetched, is it?) Your Stevens or Ginsburg, now what do you do... retire right away and make it obvious that your a partisan hack, and a loser of one at that, or just stay on until you die and not give a hoot since you'll never have to listen to what the public says about you anyway? Don't get me wrong, i'm not saying that Stevens and Ginsburg aren't above this strategy, just pointing out the possible pitfalls.
38 posted on 11/02/2005 12:41:21 PM PST by marktd
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To: unseen
that leads to the question why didn't Bush nominate a conservative the first time around. So many people said he wanted to avoid a fight.

I think he wanted someone whom he personally knew and trusted. I'm sure he thought she was a strong conservative, but he should have realized/been advised how weak nominating his own lawyer, not a judge, to the SC would look!

39 posted on 11/02/2005 1:15:20 PM PST by Dick Holmes
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To: Dick Holmes
Yes but I think he was getting the wrong advice altogether. After Katrina and others the "advisors" IMO thought Bush needed the democrats more then HE needed to keep his promise on the SC. With the 1992 tax increase and now Miers I think America are finally starting to hold their elected leaders accountable. It will be interesting to see in the 08 election what promises they make.
40 posted on 11/02/2005 2:17:16 PM PST by unseen
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To: marktd
Granted, Ginsburg or Stevens may decide to retire next year. However, it is well-known O'Connor delayed her retirement until after '04 in part because of the filibuster mess in the Senate. It is not out of the realm of possiblity that one or both Justices would adopt a similar stance, especially Ginsburg, given that she was an ACLU lawyer prior to being nominated.

But no matter when one or both leave or for whatever reason, it cannot come too soon.

41 posted on 11/03/2005 8:02:45 AM PST by krazyrep (Demolib Playbook Rule #2: If you can't beat 'em, filibuster. If that doesn't work, go to court.)
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