Posted on 11/07/2005 10:10:00 AM PST by new yorker 77
Generic Congressional Vote 2004 & 2005
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Confirmation that polls are useless?
Scroll down through this year and last year and you see very little positive for Republicans.
Miers saved the GOP by withdrawing.
Bush saved the GOP by putting forth Alito.
The GOP WANTED to come back together and advance their agenda, and having come within an inch of collapse, paradoxically, Republicans are motivated. The base is happy with this pick - happier than they would have been without the Miers interlude.
The White House is making noises about immigration.
The GOP would have faced disaster. But now they're probably going to hold their ground.
Yet, with all the polls, the GOP picked up seats.
Here's my take on the future of the Democratic Party.
The media cheerleaders for the failing Democrats don't like to talk about these things, but here's a few
of the insurmountable problems the Democrats face, as they " prepare to retake power".
*The end of big labor ATM access. This means half the extorted union dues money and half the union thug troops.
The loss of voter fraud through HAVA. Photo IDs = Democratic defeats. Please don't think this is not important. In many places Democrats simply can't win without cheating. If this was the end of the list it would be enough to stop them cold. But of course there is more.
The loss of Louisiana after the coming Katrina response investigation. This won't go away. It won't be good for Louisiana Democrats, nor will it be good for national Democrats. The people who left New Orleans might even want to go back, but to where? The nature of the Democratic party is to be greedy. The Democrats in Texas and other parts of the country that received refugees will register them as new Democratic voters. THERE WILL BE NO DOUBLE VOTING. The first result will be the election of a white Republican mayor in NOLA in February 06.
The loss of Iraq as an issue. Things are getting better by the month. The Democrats are falling right into this trap already. They are showing that they will make this an issue in the next cycle. Let them. The media can't lie enough to cover up the successes in Iraq. The tip off that they know Iraq is going well is Kerry's double speak goal post moving call for withdrawl of 20, 000 troops "if the vote in December goes well". Of course he will call for "the withdrawl of 20,000 troops" if the vote does not go well.
The loss of plantation escapees who are jumping the fence. Blacks are starting to listen to the GOP and liking what they hear. Please don't point to Bush "only getting 11%" last cycle. He got 18% of Black voters in California and similarly healthy numbers all over the country. Had it not been for the large cities where extra Black votes were not needed, the national number would be higher. Improved numbers among minorities is why Bush improved in 47 states comparing 2000 to 2004. The Democrats have now started to make racial attacks on Mike Steele. This will NOT help them keep the plantation gates closed.
The loss of control of the Court. No more force feeding liberalism to America.
The lack of any message. An empty message of " I'm not Bush." doesn't work.
Spokesmen and women like Dean, Moore, Sheehan etc. chase voters away.
Gay "marriage" support. They are even loosing this issue in Oregon. "Oh for eleven" last cycle with no upturn in sight does not help.
The Democrat's anti 2nd amendment positions gave the GOP West Virginia, for good and helped keep Arkansas and Tennessee in the fold.
Shallow bench: Paul Hackett for instance. Demoralized Democrat State organizations means fewer new faces.
The huge ass kicking Bloomberg will/has whipped on Freddie Ferrer, right in the heart of Democratic central will stun national Democrats. The best part of this one will be that as the enablers they are, the media will tell the Democrats some lie to make it "go away" and they will believe it to their eventual disadvantage.
Continued defections. The ratio of Democratic to GOP conversions in the last 10 years must be 10 to 1. This is one of the few areas that they consistently beat Republicans and that's not good for them.
Adoration of Partial Birth Abortion. Most Democrats that you see and hear about are devoted to PBA, something that chases people away. Even Jimmy Carter has enough brain cells left to recognize the dangers for the Democrats in this issue.
For the Sixth time in the last eight months, a national poll has reported that Hillary Clinton is too liberal to be president. The numbers in these surveys DON'T BUDGE. She has been judged too liberal by 38, 39,39,40, 41 and now 45% of respondents who say they would NEVER vote for her.
Zugzwang: “Compulsion to move.”
This is a term in Chess that fits the Democrat's position very well. It is a German term referring to a situation in which a player would like to do nothing (pass), since any move will damage his game, but knows he can't.
The Democrats KNOW they can't "do nothing/say nothing" as issues come up, so they are compelled to comment.
But the reality is that there aren't any issues they can say anything on and not be wrong either with their insane base or with average Americans.
The Democrats will lose either 3, 4 or 5 seats in the Congress next year. There are 2 Democrats in trouble for every Republican in trouble no matter how you look at it. The are 2 to 1 among those who got 55% or less, 53% or less, and all the way down to 50%. There are 2 Democrats who won last cycle with 55% or less and are from Red states than Republicans with similar numbers from Blue states.
Since Senator Bill Frist still holds out hopes of being president, he will serve up a steady diet of poison pill bills for Democratic Senators to vote on. This next cycle won't be fun for the Democrats in the upper chamber either. The GOP will pick up either 2 or 3 net seats there as well.
I don't know.
Ask Calfornia's governor, Cruz Bustamante.
Well done. I like the way you think, and agree...
Yep. I read on FR recently the following, which just about sums everything up.
"Democrats win polls. Republicans win elections"
Great analysis.
Remember 1995 when Clinton/Dick Morris where running $25M in ads on TV against Dole prior to the election really starting? Clinton put himself so far ahead that it didn't matter what Dole did. Same problem right now. Except with the WH, you can make up $25M in about a week.
nice post
Remember how big a win Kerry was supposed to achieve according to the exit polls? It's become pretty obvious that most of the people doing the polls have a leftist agenda and work hard to craft the questions so they get the answers they want.
Nah, more people idnetify themselves as "conservative". That'll save us....
Sounds like a great tagline.
It doesn't matter if you win a congressional district 51-49 or 90-10, you still get the seat in congress. But if they've got 3 seats that are 90-10 an we've got 7 that are 60-40, they'll get more votes overall but the Republicans will have more seats.
Great post you really hit the nail on the head. The left of moveon.org bumberg is a real disgrace for the repubs in nyc they left tom oglibene out to dry, I doubt if he could of won but bumberg is a lefty and no real help to us.
Let's see. We're runnning against a party that favors high taxes, partial abortion,higher taxes, weak defense, the United Nations. We're running against a party that calls our soldiers in Gtmo Nazis, that celebrates death tolls in Iraq. We're running against a party who believes Americans are stupid.
We're running against a party that spent the last five years spewing hate and no sensible alternatives.
Somehow I like our chances.
Great comments - and yeah, I agree, I like our chances.
Not that I necessarilly agree - the RINOs have shown no leadership in congress or WH. People are tired of hearing the GOP talk about change and then acting like dems. It wouldnt surprise me that conservatives stay home rather than vote for a dem-light. Conservative values are winning values no need to hide or portray yourself as a moderate who stands for nothing except the status-quo.
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