It's the Demography, Stupid The real reason the West is in danger of extinction.

Opinion Journal ^ | January 4, 2006 | MARK STEYN

[Toaster tank]

Most people reading this have strong stomachs, so let me lay it out as baldly as I can: Much of what we loosely call the Western world will not survive this century, and much of it will effectively disappear within our lifetimes

[starbase]

Life expectancy will see a radical transformation upward in the next 20-30 years which will ameliorate the problem Steyn ponders.

I've also seen analysis about the dropping world birthrate, and while Muslim rates are highest now, their trajectory is dropping faster than any other group's.

So, if that occurs in tandem with an extension in life expectancy, who knows how things will pan out? I've always found things are never as bad or as good as projected, especially complicated things like these issues.

Plus AIDS is spreading like wildfire through the Muslim world. I've heard that they do a lot of naughty things in private that they condemn in public.

[Vaquero]

Now if you still had your GUNS, you might be able to change things........

[Wallace T.]

You may be right about an increase in life expectancy. However, all that would mean is that there would be more 90-something baby boomers and 70-something Generation Xers around to witness the Islamicization of Europe and the conversion of the United States and Canada into Third World nations. It is hard to imagine such people as being capable of resistance to young, vigorous Muslims. There are only two effective measures to prevent the fate that Steyn predicts: increasing the birthrate of native Europeans and North Americans and severely curbing immigration from Muslim and Third World nations.

[peyton randolph]

creating an anti-market culture dominated by fundamentalism--a new Dark Ages.

Bingo.

[6ppc]

That's the wonderful thing about multiculturalism: You can choose which side of the war you want to fight on. When the draft card arrives, just tick "home team" or "enemy," according to taste.

Outstanding article. This is just one of the many "zingers" to be found in it. It was hard to decide which one to quote. Must read!

[Neville72]

"How would a greater life expectancy not effect both populations and thus be a wash in the numbers game where birth rate and survival rate at birth and the first 10 yrs or so be the controlling statistics."

Well, presumably radical life exention would affect all populations(though the Western, more affluent ones first) but Steyn's thesis is that low birthrate equals EXTINCTION. That's true only if the numbers he's using remain the same. They will not, so his calculus about what the state of things will be like in 2050 is based on a false premise.

[RedEyeJack]

BTT

[CPOSharky]

Now if you still had your GUNS, you might be able to change things........

Consider your back covered, Vaquero.

Checked the zero on two rifles yesterday. BLOAT

[TheForceOfOne]

Europe could soon be conquered by Islam. Will America be next?
Tony Blankley on how we can stop the global jihad and save Western civilization

The West's Last Chance
by Tony Blankley


Islamic jihadists are far closer than most people realize to taking over Europe. If they do, they'll impose governments there that would threaten the United States far more than Nazi Germany ever did. But there is still hope to save both Europe and America: in The West's Last Chance: Will We Win the Clash of Civilizations?, Tony Blankley explains what we must do now in order to survive the jihadist infiltration and subversion that now threatens Europe's very life.

Link

[Prysson]

I love Steyn and I respect his vision of what is to come...but I am not so certain of the outcome. I dont think Western culture is going to go silently into the night. I think that the farther nations like Germany etc fall into unemployment, economic instability etc etc you will find people becoming more and more radicallized about their sense of survival. As that progresses people significantly less tolerant of "Islam" and in particular muslim immigrants will gain more power not less. I think you will see a radicalization of European nationalism.

I also dont think that Islamic radicals have the patience of their long term vision. As they approach more comfortable population densities their actions such as bomings, rapings, murdering etc etc will become more and more frequent and more and more agressive.

Perhaps its the optimist in me (if you want to call it optimism) but I just dont see people putting up with that iundefinately and just sitting on tehir hands indefinately. eventually it will boil over and those "less tolerant" folks will be elevated to power on platforms that dont involve trotting down to the local mosque to show how tolerant they are.

I see war in Europes future. Who knows what the outcome of that will be..but I definately see war.

[wita]

I would certainly agree that we do not know what will be in 5, 10, 15+ years from now, and things do change, and news today is never as good or as bad as some would like it to be.

[visualops]

"If anything, the West is awash in an epidemic of self-hate crimes. A commenter on Tim Blair's Web site in Australia summed it up in a note-perfect parody of a Guardian headline: "Muslim Community Leaders Warn of Backlash from Tomorrow Morning's Terrorist Attack." Those community leaders have the measure of us."

"...was arguing that our tolerance of our own tolerance is making us intolerant of other people's intolerance, which is intolerable. And, unlikely as it sounds, this has now become the highest, most rarefied form of multiculturalism. So you're nice to gays and the Inuit? Big deal. Anyone can be tolerant of fellows like that, but tolerance of intolerance gives an even more intense frisson of pleasure to the multiculti masochists. In other words, just as the AIDS pandemic greatly facilitated societal surrender to the gay agenda, so 9/11 is greatly facilitating our surrender to the most extreme aspects of the multicultural agenda."

Just makes me want to scream to the world to wake up and smell the coffee before there's nothing to wake up to, or you don't wake up because some islamofascist has sawed your head off.

[wita]

War has a unique effect on birth rate.

[Prysson]

I would also point out that after the collapse of the Western Roman Empire and the onset of the original Dark Ages the germanic "barbarians" that invaded the collapsing empire and filled the power vaccum werent indoctrinated into what is refered to as Westenr Civilation (at least in so far as Western Civilization is Greco-Roman in its philosophy and instituitonal constructions. But it became so over time and the conquerors absorded teh ideas...I just think that western Civilization is more than just Italians and Germans and French I think it built of ideas and philosophies and institutions the people that live by them come and go with the centuries..empires fall...but the ideas live on.

[satchmodog9]

Someone wrote this book, "Death of the West" a while ago. I dare not speak his name on FR.

[Prysson]

Yes it does and thats why I think its very hard to predict the furture in terms of demographics. History is full of bizarre demographic shifts..and not just tyhe Baby boom after WWII though that is one significant example of how trends can reverse. I grant Steyn that large decreases in population can have profound impacts but they dont necissarily signal the end of a civilization. In the early Eastern Roman empire plague, war and famine had enormous impacts on the demographics of the empire...indeed more than once it looked like it would collapse but the Bizantine empire lasted another thousand years past the fall of Rome.

[Neville72]

"I would certainly agree that we do not know what will be in 5, 10, 15+ years from now, and things do change, and news today is never as good or as bad as some would like it to be."



If you get a chance pick up Ray Kurzweil's new book, The Singularity is Near(it was in my public library as of a month ago). It'll give you a whole new perspective on what lies ahead in the next 20-30 years.

[wouldntbprudent]

A long, but excellent read! I highly recommend it.

To all those in America who are bringing up children with the "right" view of the "Western concept," may your numbers increase! It is a measure of our optimism and our belief in the fundamental ideals of our country that we help create our country's future through our children.

[Tirian]

No - look at the math again. Longer life expectancy only delays the onset of things, but does not alter by one iota the inevitable fact that there will be a decline in population if fertility falls below the replacement rate.

[angkor]

Excellent, even for Steyn. Recommended reading.