It's the Demography, Stupid The real reason the West is in danger of extinction.

Opinion Journal ^ | January 4, 2006 | MARK STEYN

[Toaster tank]

Most people reading this have strong stomachs, so let me lay it out as baldly as I can: Much of what we loosely call the Western world will not survive this century, and much of it will effectively disappear within our lifetimes

[Toaster tank]

The essential question is:

Will we have the courage to put these multiculturist bastards down, not just here & now on this thread, but in our daily thoughts, words and deeds?

[wouldntbprudent]

The other practical question is will we have the foresight to realize that children are our future---not in the lame Klintoon sense, but in terms of (literally) populating our future with the human resources that are equipped to and desirous of maintaining the "Western concept"?

As the article ably demonstrates, "go forth and multiply" is not a bromide to be glossed over.

It's like Patton and his famous quip on letting the other bastard die for his country: shall we let the other bastard fill the world with adults raised to hate and act out of anti-modernism, or will we do what we can to ensure a robust next generation of patriots.

Another baby, please! :-) (Plus, how nice (usually) for children to have more than one sibling, especially when they are adults.)

[wouldntbprudent]

Life expectancy increases may help the bottom line on population (though, somehow, I doubt it), but having a bunch more elderly people does nothing to solve the problem of ensuring that we have a robust next generation of patriots willing to fight for this country and defend the "Western concept," i.e. freedom.

[wouldntbprudent]

And native Europeans are not going to start having more children soon because they utterly lack OPTIMISM and LOVE OF COUNTRY.

Think about it: these are two traits that figure deeply, although mostly silently, when people are looking at the out-years of their family.

When these two things are in place, the idea of bringing children into the world is nurtured by a general feeling of hope and that the children one has will have the opportunity to live in freedom and contribute to something that matters.

[wouldntbprudent]

Perhaps by having that next baby you and spousal unit have been thinking about? :-)

[takbodan]

"I've heard that they do a lot of naughty things in private that they condemn in public."

Have you ever been on a flight out of Saudi Arabia? They stockpile extra booze on those flights for the Saudi citizens to get toasted and there are lines to the restrooms so they can change into Western clothing.

[jec41]

In the end we will either fight or submit.

[jammer]

As Jerry Pournelle repeats, "Liberalism is a philosophy of consolation as the West commits suicide."

[John O]

Plus AIDS is spreading like wildfire through the Muslim world.

One can only hope so.

[Toaster tank]

I would have thought that my four (neo-conserv/libitarians in the truest sense) would have been an adequate contribution.

[Neville72]

"No - look at the math again. Longer life expectancy only delays the onset of things, but does not alter by one iota the inevitable fact that there will be a decline in population if fertility falls below the replacement rate."

Two points:

1. We aren't talking about 10 or 20 years of added life expectancy. We're talking RADICAL life extention. It's not only a distinct probability, the opening stages of this process have already begun.

2. Steyn wasn't opining on a decline in population but an EXTINCTION of Western civilization. Those are two differnt things.

Note: read the next post I'll have up in a few minutes on this topic.

[theFIRMbss]

>Well, presumably radical life exention would affect all populations(though the Western, more affluent ones first) but Steyn's thesis is that low birthrate equals EXTINCTION. That's true only if the numbers he's using remain the same. They will not

The dynamics of
the "marching moron" theory
of populations

could be applied to
almost any century.
Civilization

somehow moves forward.
Yet every generation
fears the same old crap.

It is so standard
even so-so sci-fi books
call the stuff cliches!

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Saturn's Race is the latest in a series of successful collaborations between Niven and Barnes. They have concocted a compelling mixture of adventure, romance and intrigue, and done a better job of developing their characters than in most SF adventure novels. They raise a number of interesting ethical questions regarding the problem of population growth. They paint both Saturn, who imposes his Machiavellian solution, and the third-world governments who seek to perpetuate their population problems, as equally evil. The heroes, fighting to stay alive, have little time to debate the issue. The novel therefore falls short of providing any new insights on these pivotal social issues. "In addition, although the characters and story remain interesting throughout, most experienced SF readers will find familiar ingredients. The near-future world where the high-tech corporate elite are more powerful than governments has become a cliché, as have conspiracies to stop the "marching moron" phenomenon. So are secret masters of cyberspace, primitive tribes that are morally and ethically superior to modern societies, cybernetically enhanced animals, life extension therapy, and even people able to fall in eternal love before even getting to know each other. (The section where Chaz and Lenore meet uses every formula of romance fiction.)"

[the gillman@blacklagoon.com]

...I also dont think that Islamic radicals have the patience of their long term vision....

Them and the Chinese leadership.
That's really our only hope.

[visitor]

later...rto

[Max in Utah]

Liberals destroyed the west becuase they created the belief that we needed to water the weeds.

Oh, that's a good one. I've been looking for a short statement for my new license plate frames, and now I'm considering "Don't water the weeds."

[kabar]

Life expectancy will see a radical transformation upward in the next 20-30 years which will ameliorate the problem Steyn ponders.

No, it only means that we have older societies. Unless the demographics change, the populations of places like Italy, Germany, Russia, etc. will continue to decline no matter how long people live. Economically, these societies can not survive without importing workers to maintain the system, which includes a generous social welfare component.

[kabar]

Reagan defeated the Soviet Union without a shot.

Plenty of Ameircan lives were lost winning the Cold War. Vietnam and Korea were part of it.

[kabar]

Yes it does and thats why I think its very hard to predict the furture in terms of demographics. History is full of bizarre demographic shifts..and not just tyhe Baby boom after WWII though that is one significant example of how trends can reverse.

Demographics don't change overnight. It is like turning around an aircraft carrier. What is happening in Europe is like gradually turning up the heat on a frog in a pot of cold water. By the time they realize what is happening, they will be boiled to death.

[kabar]

1. We aren't talking about 10 or 20 years of added life expectancy. We're talking RADICAL life extention. It's not only a distinct probability, the opening stages of this process have already begun.

All that does is add to the burden, i.e., the social welfare costs, and not increase the population. As Steyn points out, "The progressive agenda--lavish social welfare, abortion, secularism, multiculturalism--is collectively the real suicide bomb." He adds, "A government big enough to give you everything you want still isn't big enough to get you to give anything back. That's what the French and German political classes are discovering."

Europe and Japan are in a death spiral demographically. Extending life spans won't get them out of it.

[ex-snook]

The neo-con "War of Civilizations" will be fought by the pill not by the bomb. Demographics rule.