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Windows XP Home: obsolete sooner than you expect
Ars Technica ^ | 3 January 2006 | Ken "Caesar" Fisher

Posted on 01/04/2006 9:59:39 AM PST by ShadowAce

Microsoft set out to adopt a formal and rigid support lifecycle in 2002, back at a time when most analysts were expecting to see Windows Vista (then, "Longhorn") within a couple of years. My own point of view was that this lifecycle business had a lot to do with Microsoft's then-new volume licensing scheme, which among other things is oriented towards selling software subscriptions. If you're buying a subscription for software, you can see how lifecycle plans become important. However, delays in Windows Vista coupled with a questionable approach to "consumer" products means that 2007 will carry a few surprises unless policy changes are made at Redmond.

XP Professional and Home are divided into two general product categories for Microsoft, namely business and consumer products. XP Professional, as a business product, will receive mainstream support for two additional years after the release of Windows Vista (whenever that may be). After that, Professional will have an additional five years of extended service (minimum), though this could be lengthened considerably if the OS update after Windows Vista does not ship within three years of Vista's debut.

Mainstream and Extended support are virtually identical, with both carrying security updates, service packs, online support, and the availability of paid support. However, the transition to the Extended Support phase means that hotfixes that are not security related will be made available by a (paid) commercial contract, warranty claims can no longer be made, and Microsoft will not entertain adding any new features or design elements to the OS.

Based on the current timeline and our own expectations for the launch of Windows Vista, we estimate Windows XP Professional Mainstream Support ending in late December 2008, with Extended Support ending in December of 2013. It could stretch out longer, but we don't expect the window to be more than two to three additional years. After the Extended Support phase is finished, online support (knowledge base, FAQ, etc.) will continue for 10 years.

Windows XP Home coming up short

Windows XP Home is another story. As a consumer product, it suffers from two policy deficiencies. First, consumer products do not qualify for Extended Support, but instead move directly into the online support phase after Mainstream Support ends. Second, whereas business products are guaranteed Mainstream Support for two years beyond the release of the next subsequent version of a product (in this case, Windows Vista), consumer products do not get this built-in transitional period. The end result is that Windows XP Home will leave Mainstream Support and enter online support on January 1, 2007—in less than a year.

When that day comes, XP Home users may feel left out in the cold, because they will no longer qualify for security updates, and will not be able to purchase support from Microsoft. Finding this situation somewhat alarming, I contacted Microsoft's representation to clarify the matter.  A Microsoft spokesman relayed the following to me:

"For consumer products, security updates will be available through the end of the mainstream phase. For Windows XP Home Edition, there will be no security updates after 12/31/06." Regarding paid support for problems unrelated to security patches, I was told that "Users who want to continue to receive support after the Microsoft assisted and paid support offerings have ended may visit the Retired Product Support Options Web site."

I urge Microsoft to reconsider this stance. There should be considerably more overlap in support for their consumer OS. While five years of support for XP Home may have seemed reasonable when it was expected that there would be little more than three years between major OS updates, the time it has taken to bake Windows Vista has thrown this out entirely. If Vista launches in October, it would give users a mere two months to move to the OS, or risk being unsupported.

I suspect that Microsoft will grant a stay of execution for Windows XP Home, because the alternative is to create a PR nightmare that would also leave customers fuming. Citing emerging markets in the past, Microsoft extended support for Windows 98 and ME by more than two years, and this decision was made long after Windows XP was released. Microsoft should extend support for Windows XP Home well into 2008. Otherwise users will have to hope that updates to XP Professional meet their needs, but it remains unclear if Windows Update will point XP Home users to updates to XP Professional.


TOPICS: Technical
KEYWORDS: convictedmonopoly; lowqualitycrap; microsoft; microsooft; userfriendly; windows; xp
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To: dfwgator
Spyware is a huge player, most people just don't realize how much it slows things down.

So true. My daughter's laptop she was using in college was just dragging. Things took forever to open and close. Ran Spybot and Adaware and the thing was brand new after removing 300 items.

I feel sorry for the non-tech people. Their computers must be totally trashed if they go online. They probably buy a new one every few years and start over.

101 posted on 01/04/2006 12:07:37 PM PST by Right Wing Assault ("..this administration is planning a 'Right Wing Assault' on values and ideals.." - John Kerry)
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To: Paleo Conservative
I'd hate to have have my apps break due to an automatic upgrade.

And right you are, too. Mine have.

102 posted on 01/04/2006 12:08:12 PM PST by Billthedrill
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To: Mannaggia l'America
How many people with XP Home actually call and pay Microsoft for support? My bet is "not many".

I did that once, years ago; how long can you listen to Neil Young on Muzak?

103 posted on 01/04/2006 12:09:12 PM PST by Howlin (Defeatism may have its partisan uses, but it is not justified by the facts. - GWB, 12/18/05)
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To: Wolfstar

D-Link and Netgear make inexpensive firewall routers. I have a Netgear that I've used for nearly two years. It is a true configurable firewall.

I have installed a D-Link at a couple of small businesses that have static IPs. It has weathered all the various attacks against SQL server in the past couple of years. I has shut down a couple of times during DOS attacks. It comes right back with a power off reboot. Doesn't require a server reboot.


104 posted on 01/04/2006 12:09:33 PM PST by js1138 (Great is the power of steady misrepresentation.)
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To: Wolfstar

Routers are cheap, so I can't think of any reason not to have one in your connection. I don't have a recommendation on a brand or model, I'm afraid. Just make sure that firewall software is included and you should be OK.

I'm using a cable connection, and bought some random router from Staples. I installed the firewall software (I'm also running the Windows XP SP2 firewall). I've been using this setup for 18 months, and every virus scan has come back clean. I keep Norton updated all the time and scan daily at 2 AM.

The biggest threat to individual PCs isn't outside attack, really. It's being dumb and opening some random attachment you weren't expecting. Visiting random porn sites is another bad idea. Lots of malware attached to porn, I'm afraid.


105 posted on 01/04/2006 12:10:07 PM PST by MineralMan (godless atheist)
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To: Windsong; All
Check this out :

A Naive User's Guide to Running Windows More Securely

106 posted on 01/04/2006 12:12:49 PM PST by Uri’el-2012 (Trust in the YHvH for ever, for the LORD, YHvH is the Rock eternal. (Isaiah 26:4))
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To: ShadowAce
Let them cut support off. I think it's great. It means lazy people might eventually get pissed and create a demand for another OS. Maybe the $200 google computers will fill it.

Probably not, though. People will buy what looks cool and costs less at best buy.
107 posted on 01/04/2006 12:18:19 PM PST by mysterio
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To: js1138; MineralMan

Thank you both very much for your replies and useful information. I will look into both the D-Link and Netgear firewall routers.


108 posted on 01/04/2006 12:24:29 PM PST by Wolfstar ("We must...all hang together or...we shall all hang separately." Benjamin Franklin)
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To: mysterio
Maybe the $200 google computers will fill it.

That ain't gonna happen.

109 posted on 01/04/2006 12:24:40 PM PST by ShadowAce (Linux -- The Ultimate Windows Service Pack)
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To: Wolfstar

You're more than welcome. You'll find the NetGear routers just about anywhere. They're cheap and work just fine. I just looked, and that's what mine is.

Happy computing!


110 posted on 01/04/2006 12:26:50 PM PST by MineralMan (godless atheist)
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To: RedBloodedAmerican
 
"Not even close. you just showed your cards."

 

    • Windows NT 3.1
    • Windows NT 3.5
    • Windows NT 3.51
    • Windows NT 4.0
    • Windows 2000 (also known as Win2K)
    • Windows XP (both home and professional editions)
    • Windows Server 2003 (formerly called .Net)

Microsoft has changed the names of these products for marketing reasons, but they are all NT-class operating systems underneath. Windows XP identifies itself as NT5.1.  Windows 2000 is really NT 5.0 and Server 2003 or XP Server as some call it is NT 5.2 and so forth. You can verify this by using the GetVersionEx() API call, or looking at the version that's displayed at the top of your screen when you start a command prompt.

Win95/98/Me were all of the same 16-bit operating system that would attempt to run 32-bit programs in their own protected space. NT was a true 32-bit operating systems as OS/2.

 


111 posted on 01/04/2006 12:27:02 PM PST by HawaiianGecko (Unless I start calling Peshawar using phrases like as "I want my 72 virgins now," I figure I'm safe.)
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To: Nightshift

ping...


112 posted on 01/04/2006 12:28:58 PM PST by tutstar (Baptist Ping List Freepmail me if you want on or off this ping list.)
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To: XeniaSt

Thanks for the link! Results of Shields UP! search of my WinXP Pro SP1 box. No firewall installed on computer. Router using NAT.
\\\\\\\

Please Stand By. . .

Attempting connection to your computer. . .
Shields UP! is now attempting to contact the Hidden Internet Server within your PC. It is likely that no one has told you that your own personal computer may now be functioning as an Internet Server with neither your knowledge nor your permission.

Your Internet port 139 does not appear to exist!
One or more ports on this system are operating in FULL STEALTH MODE! Standard Internet behavior requires port connection attempts to be answered with a success or refusal response.

Therefore, only an attempt to connect to a nonexistent computer results in no response of either kind. But YOUR computer has DELIBERATELY CHOSEN NOT TO RESPOND (that's very cool!) which represents advanced computer and port stealthing capabilities.
A machine configured in this fashion is well hardened to Internet NetBIOS attack and intrusion.
\\\\\
Unable to connect with NetBIOS to your computer.
All attempts to get any information from your computer have FAILED. (This is very uncommon for a Windows networking-based PC.) Relative to vulnerabilities from Windows networking, this computer appears to be VERY SECURE since it is NOT exposing ANY of its internal NetBIOS networking protocol over the Internet.
\\\\\
Your system has achieved a perfect "TruStealth" rating. Not a single packet — solicited or otherwise — was received from your system as a result of our security probing tests. Your system ignored and refused to reply to repeated Pings (ICMP Echo Requests). From the standpoint of the passing probes of any hacker, this machine does not exist on the Internet. Some questionable personal security systems expose their users by attempting to "counter-probe the prober", thus revealing themselves. But your system wisely remained silent in every way. Very nice.
\\\\\\
Your system has achieved a perfect "TruStealth" rating. Not a single packet — solicited or otherwise — was received from your system as a result of our security probing tests. Your system ignored and refused to reply to repeated Pings (ICMP Echo Requests). From the standpoint of the passing probes of any hacker, this machine does not exist on the Internet. Some questionable personal security systems expose their users by attempting to "counter-probe the prober", thus revealing themselves. But your system wisely remained silent in every way. Very nice.


113 posted on 01/04/2006 12:30:32 PM PST by VeniVidiVici (What? Me worry?)
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To: Wolfstar

http://www.newegg.com/Product/ProductList.asp?Manufactory=1233&PropertyCodeValue=0&PropertyCodeValue=0&PropertyCodeValue=0&PropertyCodeValue=0&description=&MinPrice=&MaxPrice=&SubCategory=28&Submit=Property


114 posted on 01/04/2006 12:36:27 PM PST by js1138 (Great is the power of steady misrepresentation.)
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To: Little Pig

Service Pack 3 is for Microsoft Office. It was released in 2002.


115 posted on 01/04/2006 12:40:10 PM PST by Doc Savage ("Guys, I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more COWBELL...Bruce Dickinson)
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To: Cicero
they will probably keep updating Home

They'd have to be smoking crack to stop providing security patches for Home before the majority of the home user base moves on beyond it. If they did, the abandoned Home user base would become a giant breeding ground for zombie DoS attacks and other nasties that would affect their business customers.

116 posted on 01/04/2006 12:43:04 PM PST by steve-b (A desire not to butt into other people's business is eighty percent of all human wisdom)
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To: ShadowAce

I was hoping someone would come up with a competitive choice. I guess it's not going to be google.


117 posted on 01/04/2006 12:44:25 PM PST by mysterio
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To: Billthedrill
Microsoft can't really afford to let their branded boxes become unsupported virus factories.

GMTA. As I noted in my previous message, abandoning basic support for XP Home while millions of boxes are out there running it would be the electronic equivalent of leaving Iraq before the indigenous government is strong enough to put down the terrorist infestation.

118 posted on 01/04/2006 12:46:41 PM PST by steve-b (A desire not to butt into other people's business is eighty percent of all human wisdom)
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To: RedBloodedAmerican
XP is NOT NT5.1

NT went 3.1 (to equate it with the then-current 16-bit Windows version number), then 3.5, 3.51, and 4.0. Microsoft then dumped the regular version number scheme, naming the next major version Windows 2000. This move was marketing, as Microsoft intended to unify the home and business markets under one OS, but MS decided to delay the actual unification until XP. Windows 2000 would have been NT 5.0 if they'd decided to stay with with the previous home/business market segmentation. With XP being simply being an update to 2000, it is right to call it NT 5.1. Vista is considered NT 6.0.

119 posted on 01/04/2006 12:47:05 PM PST by antiRepublicrat
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To: VeniVidiVici
Thanks for the link! Results of Shields UP! search of my WinXP Pro SP1 box. No firewall installed on computer. Router using NAT. \\\\\\\

You are welcome!

120 posted on 01/04/2006 12:52:11 PM PST by Uri’el-2012 (Trust in the YHvH for ever, for the LORD, YHvH is the Rock eternal. (Isaiah 26:4))
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