Posted on 01/08/2006 6:51:26 AM PST by Libloather
Campaigning may be difficult after Katrina
By JEREMY ALFORD
Courier Capitol Correspondent
January 08. 2006 12:41AM
BATON ROUGE -- While state officials have spent recent months devising a plan to hold elections in the hurricane-ravaged portions of Louisiana, those who run campaigns have been concocting new schemes for the actual campaigning process.
It will certainly be a different picture from what voters and candidates find familiar. Deserted cities will complicate media launches, limited resources will make fund raising difficult, and hordes of displaced voters could forever change the face of get-out-the-vote efforts.
Additionally, by all accounts, there will only be two issues for debate on the table: Katrina and Rita.
Congressional elections are slated for the fall, and municipal and mayoral elections should be held in New Orleans no later than April 29. The state is working with the federal government to locate displaced voters and inform them of their rights, but political consultants and other campaign pros are also developing ways to reach out in the storms’ aftermath.
Roy Fletcher, a political consultant from Shreveport who has helped elect both Republicans and Democrats, said television campaigns are being completely written out of strategy books for many candidates. In parishes like Orleans and Cameron, many left behind are without sets and those who fled no longer tune into the market.
"I think there will be, in New Orleans particularly, a large focus on alternatives media like the Internet," he said. "You’ll see people using e-mail lists and cells phones and advertising on Web sites like NOLA.com."
Mike Smith, a principle for MDSA Strategic Communications in Baton Rouge, a firm that represents mostly Republicans, said even direct mail will fall by the wayside in certain areas. Still, it may be the key in northern Louisiana and places like Lafayette, Houma and Baton Rouge, where many displaced voters have taken refuge.
"Radio is hot right now and has become a very effective means of communications in areas like Lake Charles and New Orleans," he said. "It’s one of the only ways many people are getting information, and you’re going to see candidates sinking a lot more money into it than they would during a normal campaign."
But to launch any electronic campaign, candidates will still need money. The problem is many individuals and businesses have already tied up their free cash in the rebuilding efforts. That means -- more than ever -- candidates will need to be independently wealthy or already have a substantial war chest.
"People are already having problems with this," said Ron Gomez, a former broadcaster and legislator who now owns Edge Communications, an advertising and public-relations firm in Lafayette. "Even charities that are not connected to storm relief are having difficulty finding money."
Some incumbents might also run into a bit of trouble when they realize they spent too much out of their own war chests on recovery efforts and find corporate donations have run dry.
"Businesses that left are still in places like Houston and they still don’t know if they want to invest in south Louisiana and if it’s part of their future," Fletcher said.
With limited cash locally, candidates may have to rely on their message and getting voters to the polls.
"GOTV and grassroots efforts are going to make or break campaigns in the coming months," Smith said. GOTV is on-demand television delivered to mobile phones and updated 24 hours a day.
"With TV out the window and direct mail questionable, some seasoned elected officials are going to find themselves having to go door-to-door. It’s going to be a big change for them," Smith said.
Busing large numbers of voters to the polls on Election Day and paying block captains to oversee critical areas may no longer be options either, said Fletcher.
"Perhaps the get-out-the-vote effort won’t even be on Election Day, since there will be a few days of early voting this year," he added. "You may have some new situations where you reach voters by other means in heavily populated areas," but those plans are still in development.
As for issues in the campaigns, Katrina and Rita top the list. How will Louisiana continue to rebuild? How will hurricane protection be approached in the future? Were the right decisions made?
There will be planks, platforms and promises -- nothing new there. But the same singular issue will also provide candidates with muddy fodder to throw at each other. Fingers will be pointed and blame will be tossed around. Fletcher said voters are expecting it and they’re ready to hold someone -- or some people -- accountable.
"We’re in an environment right now that’s like winter in Louisiana when I was growing up, and we would go out hog hunting," he said. "If you’re an incumbent right now, believe me, when the elections roll around, there will be a lot of hog hunting."
Jeremy Alford can be reached at jeremy@jeremyalford.com.
Six months in another state could make applicants residents of that state. The election is ripe for corruption.
In most cases, being dead also makes them ineligible.
Maybe Mayor Ray could get those school buses cleaned up and launch a caravan across Tx, La, Ok, Ark, Tn, Ga, etc...to find his voters and assure them he's taking care of them (now).
What a cluster this is going to be.
:-)
". . ."If you’re an incumbent right now, believe me, when the elections roll around, there will be a lot of hog hunting." . . ."
You gotta love the way this man thinks! Just imagine goin' 'hog hunting' for RINOs come election time. Yeah!
It is likely that many NOLA evacuees didn't vote before unless they were inticed free rides, meals, cash, etc... (not all but enough to make a difference in a tight race) They probably won't return to vote unless they get those same things. So, it will be very hard to get them to do anything on their own.
I think the state should put the info about absentee voting out there and then it is up to each person to go through the process. Current La. law requires you to vote in person one time before you can vote absentee so anyone who has voted before should easily be able to vote absentee.
I don't know if he's eligible to run against since he sat out a term, but most of the people you saw on TV in Katrina, if they did vote, they wouldn't vote for Nagin, they'd vote for Morial.
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