[doug from upland]

It is still very, very early. Keep in mind that she really did download FBI files. Behind the scenes, she will destroy the others who dare challenge her. She has almost unlimited money, and I suspect that George Soros would spend a hundred million dollars to get her elected --- legally or illegally.

[Mia T]

All true about Filegate, Soros, etc.

But as I argue below, missus clinton has 100% name recognition and roughly 10% corruption recognition.
You can't make a silk purse from a sow's ear. Even when the sow isn't hillary.

Now here is Hillary Clinton, that other New Yorker in the subway series.  A new Gallup poll just came out.  "USA TODAY" Gallup poll, it shows that 16 percent say that they'll definitely vote for Hillary right now, 32 percent say they might vote for her. 

But here's the dagger in the back.  Fifty-one percent say they would definitely not vote for Hillary Clinton already the campaign hasn't begun. 

KORNBLUT:  I mean, this is exactly what Democrats are worried about is that already people have made up their minds.  I would argue, I guess, that it is awfully early.  We all know how early it is to be talking about this. 

MATTHEWS:  Definitely. 

KORNBLUT:  Definitely?  What does definitely mean?  [Definitely means DEFINITELY.] You know, you would have to see how is the question exactly phrased, all that stuff.  It is early. [Actually Anne, it is late. In fact, it is too late. The country knows exactly who this woman is, Anne.]

MATTHEWS:  But there's lot of tooth behind that.  If somebody tells a pollster, I've already made up my mind definitely. 

KORNBLUT:  And, look, I know more Democrats who believe this though than Republicans.  A lot of Republicans say that this is a deceptive number, that once she gets out there with all of her money running against who, Giuliani or McCain, the numbers may not be that weak.  [She has 100% name recognition, Anne. You can't make a silk purse from a sow's ear. Even when the sow isn't hillary.]

MATTHEWS:  How much of that is don't throw me in that briar patch, Dana?  We're so afraid of Hillary.  Please don't run her against us.  She'll kill us. 

MILBANK:  Anne is right that these polls are completely useless because you don't know what the alternative is.  But the fact is that she...  [Earth to Dana: 51% would vote for their mother-in-law before they would vote for HER.]

MATTHEWS:  OK.  McCain against Hillary.  Who wins? 

 

MILBANK:  Well, that's fine.  If you can tell me that's how it is going to turn out.  But we don't know. 

MATTHEWS:  Well, let me ask you about these definite numbers in a poll.  Do you believe the definite?  Do you believe somebody right in 2006 knows how they are going to vote in 2008?

MILBANK:  I think they definitely think that's what they are going to do right now, but they have no idea what they are going to be doing in a couple years.  And Hillary is going to have the opposite problem of Rudy.  And that is she's absolutely fine with her base if she decides to run.  But she is seemingly incapable of crossing over. 

MATTHEWS:  The poll was taken over the week right through Sunday, the Gallup poll.  And the Gallup poll is, of course, the most prestigious poll there is right now and has been for years. 

Dana, do you think she's paying the price for her plantation remark last week? 

MILBANK:  Probably not.  Because, once again, plays very well the base.  The people who were objecting to it were never going to support her in the first case.  And I really think the only thing that this is right now is do people recognize her name.  [What is it you don't understand, here? We recognize her name, yes. And we abhor the person attached to that name. Get it?]

KORNBLUT:  And I would add to that.  It's 51 percent say definitely not.  Remember the margin that's we've been talking about in the last few presidential races, 51 percent is terrible, but all she would have to do is bump it by a few numbers, a few percentage points and be OK.  [I can see why Pinch hired you, Anne. Your Alice-in-Wonderland illogic is quintessential New York Times. With 100% name recognition and roughly 10% corruption recognition (thanks in no small measure to your rag), missus clinton has only one way to go. And it isn't up.]

... Anyway, thank you Anne Kornblut of "The New York Times," Dana Milbank of "The Washington Post." 

Join us again tomorrow night at 5:00 and 7:00 Eastern for more HARDBALL.  Right now it is time for "THE ABRAM'S REPORT" with Dan.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

Copy: Content and programming copyright 2006 MSNBC.  ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 

HARDBALL WITH CHRIS MATTHEWS
January 25, 2006

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ON REJIGGING GALLUP'S LOSING NUMBERS FOR HILLARY
THE ALTERNATE UNIVERSE OF ANNE KORNBLUT
by Chris Matthews et al. (with annotations by Mia T), 01.26.06
COPYRIGHT MIA T 2006