Posted on 02/14/2006 5:00:06 AM PST by Judith Anne
THE ARRIVAL OF avian flu in Africa means that the bird epidemic is officially out of control. None of the methods used against it so far -- mass vaccination of poultry flocks in China, mass bird slaughter across Southeast Asia -- has prevented wild birds from spreading the H5N1 virus across the globe, to Italy, Greece, Bulgaria and Azerbaijan, as well as Siberia and Indonesia. The flu has probably been killing birds in Africa for many months and will probably not be stopped: In poor countries with weak or nonexistent veterinary controls, where chickens are the only source of protein and no compensation for farmers for loss of their livestock is likely, it will be impossible to enforce either mass vaccinations or mass slaughter
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Thank you for the ping Judith Anne.
FYI ping
When the pandemic hits, FEMA needs to hand out lots of $2,000 voucher cards to be spent any way the recipient wants to spend it. That should help - throwing money at problems fixes them. That's what the response to FEMA has taught the country.
Nice map, thanks for posting it. I guess we'd better watch the Maritimes instead...
Lower pathogenicity results in the host having a better chance of survival, and thus of transmitting the disease, before the host itself dies of it. With the current high pathogenicity level (over 50% mortality), the host dies too quickly before the disease can be spread. As with the 1918 flu, once it lost some of its pathogenicity (I think overall it had an 8% mortality), it spread faster and easier. If it were to remain at a >50% mortality rate, many hosts would die before transmission could occur, thus the transmission rate would not be nearly as high as if the mortality rate were lower.
Viruses mutate, sometimes rapidly, but not evolve. Just as in viruses of past, they can get deadlier or weaker. It's like throwing the dice everytime a host is infected.
As for the ammo posts, I was at the gun show last weekend and many people were commenting on how ammo is being purchased, or stockpiled, now. Many vendors were out of the popular 7.62x39, and the cheap ammo, like Wolf or Bear, were almost nonexistent. I also saw many people there who were obviously at their first show and didn't even know what to call the AR-15 they were looking at. Lots of people seem to be getting worried......
When the deaths start mounting in the Middle East, we can just say that the 12th Iman has arrived, er?
No, influenza viruses, all of them, are transmissible BEFORE the host shows any sign of illness. I've heard the reasoning you expound above before, but not from any serious researcher. There is no reason for the virus H5N1 to lose pathogenicity in a supposed tradeoff for easier transmissibility. That kind of statement imputes human reasoning to a semi-living complex molecule. For example, unless the newer drugs intervene, HIV is invariably fatal. No loss of pathogenicity there...
And you may disagree, but mutations are the one and only cause of evolution in my book.
Thanks, blam. Appreciate the links.
Thanks for the ping, Judith_Anne.
We're running out of time, it seems. Prayers that this can somehow be averted.
I think you're right. To me, I think more people are worried about terrorism and the polarization in this country than bird flu. But, even with Iran enriching uranium, is that really a reason to stockpile ammo? Is there a new threat of terrorism spooking people? Not that I've seen. Polarization, as seen in the Alito hearings, maybe. I dunno. Most people I talk to don't seem to be aware of H5N1 or have any knowledge of Microbiology, but sales are up. I shopped for some 7.62 and had problems finding it but .223 was easy to find. Something is spooking people.
Yes, flu viruses are ALL transmissible before symptoms appear. However, if the host were to die in 3 days from the onset of symptoms, as opposed to two weeks, then he has less chance to infect someone. The longer he lives and interacts with other potential hosts, the more the chance of a transmission. With the current H5N1, symptoms appear on average of 3 days after exposure. So, everyone has a base potential of 3 days to spread the virus. Now, lets say the mortality rate is 100% (highly pathogenic). Well, then death is imminent and the host will be infectious until that time (varies as you know by lots of factors). As we drop the mortality rate, or as the virus loses it's pathogenicity, the host will live longer, as when faced with a weaker virus, his ability to survive it, will increase. Thus, if he is infected with a virus that has a 10% mortality rate, he should be able to stay alive longer, and potentially defeat it, thus increasing the time available to interact with others and infect them. That is what I meant in my statement. I have read/ heard similar propositions from various sources, and that was even discussed in the book I mentioned. Am I way off my rocker here? I'm not a Microbiologist but have read alot about it. If you'd like, message me. I'm always trying to learn more about the potential of H5N1.
Bird flu found in Germany: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L1444456.htm
Bird flu in Iran and Austria:
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L14101227.htm
I have found that the Reuters service is much quicker to report than any go'vt or NGO. Apparently the children in Nigeria were not infected.
Someone like 2ndreconmarine might be interested in investigating alternate epidemiological models i.e. high morbidity/low pathocenicity vs. low morbidity/high pathogenicity and the resulting mortality. What is the optimally bad combination?
Of course, as JA has pointed out, there is no guarantee that a combination of high morbidity and high pathogenicity can't happen.
The thing that is annoying is when don't worry be happy pollys (not anyone in this thread) come on and say "I absolutely, positively guarantee H2H H5N1 will be LOW Pathogenicity!".
Insert photo of Baghdad Bob Here.
http://www.frugalsquirrels.com/ubb/ultimatebb.php?ubb=get_topic;f=1;t=041376;p=1
It is a suvivalist site that is tracking H5N1 quite nicely
Semper Fi
NO, FRiend, you are absolutely not off your rocker. I, too, have read those optimistic predictions that viruses become less pathogenic as they become more transmissible. This is, in my opinion, just somebody's wild hope, that because it has happened before, it will happen this time, so don't worry, be happy.
There is no way of predicting which mutations will happen, and there is absolutely no reason to think that the mutations now occurring have made H5N1 less pathogenic. The same 50%+ human mortality rate seems to hold.
The pollys have noted rightly that there are some Vietnamese who have tested positive for an H5N1 variant and who are not ill. There are also numerous family clusters, presumably most bird-to-human cases with a very high mortality rate, in Vietnam. H5N1 is evolving all around the world, and in some areas, may mutate to be less serious than in others. So far, no indication.
But there are also two types of H5N1 around, at LEAST, and presently in Canada the low path (LP H5N1) has been found in birds. It is not known at this time if LP H5N1 gives any immunity to high path (HP) H5N1, and presently there is laboratory evidence using chicken cells, if I recall correctly, that it does not, they are too different.
In any case, ALL H5N1 is tracked on this continent, and if H5N1 was a significant factor, which it does not appear to be, it would be noted and discussed. Most researchers have given up on the idea of HP and LP and are just concentrating on where the HP will go from here. The African strains as well as all others seem to all be HP.
I completely understand the hope that as H5N1 becomes more widespread and perhaps gains the ability to transmit h2h2h etc., it will be less pathogenic, maybe on the order of H1N1 from 1918 with a mortality rate under 10%. But I don't think that will happen, call me a pessimist, it certainly doesn't seem to be.
One early family cluster in Vietnam was an 11 yo girl, to her mother, to her aunt, all three died. No others in the family were reported ill...I don't know if there was bird exposure in all three patients either, but that outbreak died (although there were many others in Vietnam...
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