'Europe Has No Hope Of Eradicating Bird Flu'

The Telegraph (UK) ^ | 2-23-2006 | David Rennie - David Derbyshire

[blam]

'Europe has no hope of eradicating bird flu'

By David Rennie and David Derbyshire
(Filed: 23/02/2006)

Europe has "no hope of eradicating" the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus in the foreseeable future, now that there are infected wild birds across the European Union, a senior bird flu expert said yesterday.

Although the virulent strain of avian influenza arrived inside the EU less than two weeks ago, it is now a fact of life, European Commission officials said. The warning came as EU officials approved plans by France and the Netherlands to vaccinate millions of birds against the disease. The British Government yesterday reaffirmed its opposition to vaccination, arguing that it could lead to the "silent spread" of the disease.

Seven EU countries have now confirmed the presence of the H5N1 strain in wild birds. Yesterday Austria said two chickens had been carrying the virus, the first time it has appeared in poultry in the EU. The birds had been kept with an infected swan at an animal sanctuary in Graz but commercial flocks had not been affected, officials said.

Europe's vets now believe that the bird flu strain is here for good in wild birds. They are focusing efforts on preventing it from jumping into commercial poultry and domestic birds.

An EU technical expert, who asked not to be named, said: "We have no prospect of eradicating the virus in the near future... The fact that the virus is circulating in wild birds, and that we have no technical tools to prevent that, is a major obstacle to the eradication of the disease."

That has serious implications for Europe's millions of free-range birds and pets, especially ducks and geese that share a pond or wetlands with infected wildfowl.

The H5N1 virus has been endemic in China and other parts of Asia since 2003. It has jumped the species gap to humans, killing at least 92 people, most of them in Asia. To date all human cases are thought to have involved close contact with an infected bird. However, there are fears that the disease could mutate into a lethal form of flu that could be spread quickly from human to human.

The Commission expert said there was now near-total consensus that the virus reached Europe last month after unusually cold weather in wetlands near the Black Sea, where the disease was well established. The cold snap drove migrating birds, notably swans, much further south and west than usual.

After two days of debate, France and Holland yesterday obtained permission to vaccinate millions of ducks, geese and free-range chickens.

The EU has imposed tough extra conditions on France and Holland, so that vaccinated birds may only be moved to other vaccinated farms, and will be largely banned from export. Meat from vaccinated birds has been declared safe, and may be sold and exported, without special labelling, if accompanied by a veterinary certificate stating that the birds were healthy before slaughter. Their eggs may be sold if properly cleaned and packed.

Four nations abstained in the final vote to approve the use of vaccines: Germany, Belgium, Greece and Portugal. Britain expressed grave doubts.

Opponents of mass vaccinations say vaccinated birds can still carry the virus and "shed" it on to other birds. Vaccines must also be given twice within three weeks, making it expensive to treat free-range flocks. If some birds are missed, or have lower levels of immunity, the vaccine can actually "mask" the presence of bird flu on a farm.

Britain does not hold stockpiles of bird flu vaccines, and has not placed orders for any, putting its faith in close monitoring of flocks, a strict policy of isolating any outbreaks and culling birds.

"We have eradicated previous outbreaks of high pathogenic avian influenza successfully in domestic birds using this method," said Fred Landeg, the Deputy Chief Veterinary Officer. "Vaccination offers potential benefits but currently available vaccines are too limited to provide a general solution."

The Soil Association, which represents organic farmers, criticised the Government for failing to stockpile vaccinations. Although it is opposed to mass vaccination, it believes outbreaks should be contained by culling the infected birds and vaccinating surrounding farms.

[OldFriend]

We've gone from West Nile Virus, to Mad Cow Disease, to Bird Flu.

Anyone get the feeling that this hysteria is contrived?

[wardaddy]

'Europe Has No Hope Of Eradicating Islamist Flu'

[Brilliant]

But will it jump to human-to-human transmission? That is the big question.

[Dog Gone]

I think this is true and it was always true. And somehow it's going to get to the Western hemisphere as well.

At a minimum, we'll have massive poultry losses as well, maybe as late as next year. But it's going to happen.

What's less clear is when and if the virus will jump to humans who then spread it. Most experts think that will happen within 10 years. Many have a more pessimistic timeframe.

But the further it spreads in the fowl population, the more opportunities the virus has to hit the magical mutation. It's now in Africa, Europe, and Asia.

You'd have to be a dummy not to predict what will happen next.

[FFIGHTER]

Time for the someone in Hollyweird to come out with an updated version of Alfred Hitchcock's classic "The Birds".

[shimbo]

Comparison of the SARS meme to the "Avian Flu" meme.

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=sars_versus_avian_flu_meme

There's a good chance the the "world mind" is reacting quicker to potential pandemics.

[mdittmar]

World wide,all countries,all cases,what is the total deaths from H5N1 bird flu virus?

[solzhenitsyn]

As of 17 February, 170 human cases and 92 deaths.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4531500.stm

[aimhigh]

In terms of investments, is there such a thing as chicken futures?

[randog]

Time for the someone in Hollyweird to come out with an updated version of Alfred Hitchcock's classic "The Birds".

"The Birds"

A Retelling of Alfred Hitchcock's Masterpiece

Scene I

Date: 2021

Location: NORAD bunkers deep within the Rocky Mountains. The site has been abandoned since President Amy Carter-Kennedy shut it down three years ago because it was "bad karma".

George Blush [President of the United States]: Carl....CARL!! When will the bird virus be ready?!

Carlton Rover [President Blush's evil henchman]: Don't rush me, you fool! I'm busy directing a hurricane towards Seattle!

....

[FFIGHTER]

The surprising thing, is there are actually people out there who believe it, and preach it as fact. In some people's mind's GWB is more powerful than the Wizard of Oz.

[blam]

It'll come here, then:

* We'll have a chicken glut because everyone will freak and not eat chicken, then:

* We'll have a shortage when they start culling the flocks, then:

* I don't know what will happen.

Anyway, it'll be Bush's fault because he didn't have a plan.

[mdittmar]

92 deaths world wide and a million headlines,it boggles my mind.

This ain't an epidemic,it is a flu,like swine flu,or every other "flu" that comes out every year.

Folks,this ain't the 1900's anymore,we have medicine now.

I'm sick of Bird Flu!

[Esther Ruth]

Anyone get the feeling that this hysteria is contrived?
***
It's more then a feeling, it's a fact, this is so contrived. Question is Why? Could the answer just be simply there is money to be made with all the drugs, vaccines or is there more to it, a way to control something.

[cpdiii]

The death rate is about 50% with good medical care. If it mutates and becomes contagious in a human to human vector it will be pandemic of epic proportions. When and if it makes this mutation it may lose some of its pathogenicity. That would be good. However, in the Spanish Flu epidemic it did not lose it and it killed millions.

[mdittmar]

Spanish Flu?,1918?,you just made my point,smoke more,bleeding,iron tonics,quinine tablets,don't forget enemas.

This ain't 1918 anymore.

[cpdiii]

The 50% death rate for those contracting the flu was in reference to the new avian flu, not the Spanish flu of 1918. That rate is in modern hospitals. I would suspect many others
in third world countries never made it to the hospital.

[mdittmar]

The 50% death rate for those contracting the flu was in reference to the new avian flu, not the Spanish flu of 1918.Ahh,my mistake,so What's your point?

[dd5339]

Yep,

We have medicine now. We have Relenza and Tamiflu. The ONLY two prescription drugs that have shown any ability to fight a flu virus. Unfortunately, in some of the cases of Bird Flu, the virus has shown a nasty habit of being resistant to either in a couple of cases.

Is Bird Flu going to come kill us all? I don't know. But with a 54% mortality rate, (current figures) it does bear watching. It's also very interesting to note that since last August, it's picked up 4% more mortality in it's newest mutations.

I do know that IF it does go human to human, it's going to be a wild ride for the survivors.

Semper Fi

[Wiz]

Europe's Democratic-Socialism/liberalism is failing.

[OldFriend]

Keeping the sheeple feeling they need the government to 'protect' them?

[bonfire]

I read somewhere here on FR that last year it had 8 mutations to go til human to human. It's already on it's 6th mutation.

Don't know if that's true or not?

[stocksthatgoup]

How long until the bird flu is in the USA?

[Termite_Commander]

Yup. They found it needs two mutatations on the Glycine Receptor Array to become highly transmissible between mammals. I can't remember where the article is. I'll look around and see if I can find it for you.

Also, I think that it may actually only need one mutation, because the change at 190 increased its transmissibility and virulence, and the other mutation only reduced its affinity for birds.

That's why you've got people saying things like this now.

John Oxford, Professor of Virology at Barts, claims the likelihood of a human avian flu pandemic was "high and within a span of, say, 18 months".

Human Avian flu pandemic risk increases

[Termite_Commander]

Can't really predict that. Many think before this year is out, it could be here. When migratory birds carrying the virus head back to China and Russia, it's possible they could exchange the virus with other birds that enter North America through Alaska. However, H5N1 could also be picked up on the East Atlantic Flyway in Africa and be here by fall.

[bonfire]

Thanks. I'm beginning to take this seriously. Not panicking, just paying attention.

[tatown]

"Yup. They found it needs two mutatations on the Glycine Receptor Array to become highly transmissible between mammals." - Termite_Commander

The fact is that the experts don't know how many mutations it will take to get H5N1 to go H2H. Dr. Nabarro just got his ass handed to him for suggesting "2 mutations away", because he couldn't prove it. If you can show us where one expert has demonstrated what it takes, then show us. During an interview with Dr. Jeff Taubenberger (the man who re-recreated the 1918 pan-virus) a couple of months ago, he was asked to evaluate how many mutations it would take to make H5N1 "1918-Like" (assuming it is even following a parallel evolution, which is unknown). The follow is what he had to say:

“But whereas the 1918 virus may have had 30 changes, the H5 viruses that we see have no more than a small handful of these changes. Luckily, if this is the process that is going on, we are seeing a very early development. We are at a very early stage.” - Dr. Taubenberger late-2005

[steve86]

We have Relenza and Tamiflu. The ONLY two prescription drugs that have shown any ability to fight a flu virus.

That's hardly true. The neurominadase inhibitors are not the only drugs with some efficacy and are only one class of antivirals. Amantadine and rimantadine, of course, have been effective against certain strains. The Russian Arbidol has as well, but it is unfortunately not recognized as a prescription drug in the U.S.

[XEHRpa]

> I read somewhere here on FR that last year it had 8 mutations to go til human to human. It's already on it's 6th mutation.

That's eight degrees of separations until it gets to Kevin Bacon. From there it's anyone's guess. < /sarcasm>

[steve86]

I meant to add that other antivirals have been in development but were dropped for financial reasons. I think I read that each major pharmaceutical company had at least one.

[glasseye]

Anyone get the feeling that this hysteria is contrived?

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed - and hence clamorous to be led to safety - by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary." - H. L. Mencken

[OldFriend]

The best thing we can do for ourselves and our families is take care to learn about proper nutrition. Get enough rest and enjoy every day as best you can.

[Termite_Commander]

A study was conducted, and the scientists who did it concluded that two amino acid insertions into H5N1 would cause a pandemic.

As you know, Nabarro is the head of the WHO's avian influenza control effort. You really think he'd risk completely blowing his reputation and perhaps his job by using data from a junk science study?

And what really puzzles me is how you say that experts can't predict how many mutations are necessary, and then go on to quote Dr. Taubenberger's "30 changes" statement. Shouldn't he be scorned just as greatly as Dr. Nabarro has been if he's predicting how the virus will mutate? The fact is that most of the changes in H1N1 that created a pandemic strain are on the HA protein. Because this protein is different in H5N1, H1N1 can't accurately be applied.

In short,

Nabarro was using a study which looked at the H5N1 virus to speculate about future H5N1 mutations.

Taubenberger was using a study which looked at the H1N1 virus to predict future H5N1 mutations.

And yet you find the latter more accurate? How can you justify that? You dismiss Nabarro's comments because they have not been reproduced in a lab, but you use the "30 mutations away" comment even though it lacks the same criteria. Why should we trust what Taubenberger says since those +/- 30 mutations have not been applied to H5N1 in a lab? He obviously has no idea what he's talking about, right?

You may very well be right in that the virus would need more than two mutations to become a pandemic. However, I wouldn't dismiss Nabarro's comments so flippantly. What if he is right? Is it safer to say "The virus could become a pandemic tomorrow" or "The virus is no great danger at the moment"?

[Myrddin]

We've gone from West Nile Virus, to Mad Cow Disease, to Bird Flu.

West Nile went from a few birds in a New Jersey marsh to a endemic coast to coast in North America in 2 years. It is now an ongoing cost to horse owners in my area.

The jury is still out on mad cow. How many parties have been diagnosed and cured thus far?

The current H5N1 avian flu was confined to southeast asia last year. It has spread across asia and south to africa. There is no reason to believe that it won't spread as easily across north america. It's unlikely that we can do anything about it. Watch. Wait. Measure the real economic impact. Anything else is speculation. Enjoy your chicken while it's cheap and available.

[tatown]

1. "A study was conducted, and the scientists who did it concluded that two amino acid insertions into H5N1 would cause a pandemic."

If you can show any proof of this, then you'll be the first to do so. What you state is absolutely not true! If I'm wrong...I encourage you to prove it. From the recent 2/20/06 WHO report (note how I am backing my claims?):

"Scientists do not presently know which specific mutations are needed to make the H5N1 virus easily and sustainably transmissible among humans."

http://www.who.int/csr/2006_02_20/en/index.html


2. "And what really puzzles me is how you say that experts can't predict how many mutations are necessary, and then go on to quote Dr. Taubenberger's "30 changes" statement. Shouldn't he be scorned just as greatly as Dr. Nabarro has been if he's predicting how the virus will mutate?"

Go back and re-read my original post. Taubenberger simply was stating how many mutations are required to make it "1918-like". He's comparing the two viruses. A big difference from saying "two mutations away" when science (Taubenberger included) has no idea what mutations are required. Get it?

Again, go find what mutations are required for H2H and you can educate the world.

[bannie]

Once a parasite kills its host, it dies. Successful parasites keep a balance.

[grey_whiskers]

MOSCOW, March 7 (RIA Novosti) - The world is one step away from a bird flu pandemic that cannot be averted by quarantine or vaccination, a Russian expert said Tuesday. "One amino-acid replacement in the genome remains to make the virus transferable from human to human," said Dmitry Lvov, the director of a virology research institute at the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences.

From this thread.

Tick...tick...tick... (short Tyson Foods and Chick-Fil-A)...tick..