'Europe Has No Hope Of Eradicating Bird Flu'

The Telegraph (UK) ^ | 2-23-2006 | David Rennie - David Derbyshire

[Wiz]

Europe's Democratic-Socialism/liberalism is failing.

[OldFriend]

Keeping the sheeple feeling they need the government to 'protect' them?

[bonfire]

I read somewhere here on FR that last year it had 8 mutations to go til human to human. It's already on it's 6th mutation.

Don't know if that's true or not?

[stocksthatgoup]

How long until the bird flu is in the USA?

[Termite_Commander]

Yup. They found it needs two mutatations on the Glycine Receptor Array to become highly transmissible between mammals. I can't remember where the article is. I'll look around and see if I can find it for you.

Also, I think that it may actually only need one mutation, because the change at 190 increased its transmissibility and virulence, and the other mutation only reduced its affinity for birds.

That's why you've got people saying things like this now.

John Oxford, Professor of Virology at Barts, claims the likelihood of a human avian flu pandemic was "high and within a span of, say, 18 months".

Human Avian flu pandemic risk increases

[Termite_Commander]

Can't really predict that. Many think before this year is out, it could be here. When migratory birds carrying the virus head back to China and Russia, it's possible they could exchange the virus with other birds that enter North America through Alaska. However, H5N1 could also be picked up on the East Atlantic Flyway in Africa and be here by fall.

[bonfire]

Thanks. I'm beginning to take this seriously. Not panicking, just paying attention.

[tatown]

"Yup. They found it needs two mutatations on the Glycine Receptor Array to become highly transmissible between mammals." - Termite_Commander

The fact is that the experts don't know how many mutations it will take to get H5N1 to go H2H. Dr. Nabarro just got his ass handed to him for suggesting "2 mutations away", because he couldn't prove it. If you can show us where one expert has demonstrated what it takes, then show us. During an interview with Dr. Jeff Taubenberger (the man who re-recreated the 1918 pan-virus) a couple of months ago, he was asked to evaluate how many mutations it would take to make H5N1 "1918-Like" (assuming it is even following a parallel evolution, which is unknown). The follow is what he had to say:

“But whereas the 1918 virus may have had 30 changes, the H5 viruses that we see have no more than a small handful of these changes. Luckily, if this is the process that is going on, we are seeing a very early development. We are at a very early stage.” - Dr. Taubenberger late-2005

[steve86]

We have Relenza and Tamiflu. The ONLY two prescription drugs that have shown any ability to fight a flu virus.

That's hardly true. The neurominadase inhibitors are not the only drugs with some efficacy and are only one class of antivirals. Amantadine and rimantadine, of course, have been effective against certain strains. The Russian Arbidol has as well, but it is unfortunately not recognized as a prescription drug in the U.S.

[XEHRpa]

> I read somewhere here on FR that last year it had 8 mutations to go til human to human. It's already on it's 6th mutation.

That's eight degrees of separations until it gets to Kevin Bacon. From there it's anyone's guess. < /sarcasm>

[steve86]

I meant to add that other antivirals have been in development but were dropped for financial reasons. I think I read that each major pharmaceutical company had at least one.

[glasseye]

Anyone get the feeling that this hysteria is contrived?

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed - and hence clamorous to be led to safety - by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary." - H. L. Mencken

[OldFriend]

The best thing we can do for ourselves and our families is take care to learn about proper nutrition. Get enough rest and enjoy every day as best you can.

[Termite_Commander]

A study was conducted, and the scientists who did it concluded that two amino acid insertions into H5N1 would cause a pandemic.

As you know, Nabarro is the head of the WHO's avian influenza control effort. You really think he'd risk completely blowing his reputation and perhaps his job by using data from a junk science study?

And what really puzzles me is how you say that experts can't predict how many mutations are necessary, and then go on to quote Dr. Taubenberger's "30 changes" statement. Shouldn't he be scorned just as greatly as Dr. Nabarro has been if he's predicting how the virus will mutate? The fact is that most of the changes in H1N1 that created a pandemic strain are on the HA protein. Because this protein is different in H5N1, H1N1 can't accurately be applied.

In short,

Nabarro was using a study which looked at the H5N1 virus to speculate about future H5N1 mutations.

Taubenberger was using a study which looked at the H1N1 virus to predict future H5N1 mutations.

And yet you find the latter more accurate? How can you justify that? You dismiss Nabarro's comments because they have not been reproduced in a lab, but you use the "30 mutations away" comment even though it lacks the same criteria. Why should we trust what Taubenberger says since those +/- 30 mutations have not been applied to H5N1 in a lab? He obviously has no idea what he's talking about, right?

You may very well be right in that the virus would need more than two mutations to become a pandemic. However, I wouldn't dismiss Nabarro's comments so flippantly. What if he is right? Is it safer to say "The virus could become a pandemic tomorrow" or "The virus is no great danger at the moment"?

[Myrddin]

We've gone from West Nile Virus, to Mad Cow Disease, to Bird Flu.

West Nile went from a few birds in a New Jersey marsh to a endemic coast to coast in North America in 2 years. It is now an ongoing cost to horse owners in my area.

The jury is still out on mad cow. How many parties have been diagnosed and cured thus far?

The current H5N1 avian flu was confined to southeast asia last year. It has spread across asia and south to africa. There is no reason to believe that it won't spread as easily across north america. It's unlikely that we can do anything about it. Watch. Wait. Measure the real economic impact. Anything else is speculation. Enjoy your chicken while it's cheap and available.

[tatown]

1. "A study was conducted, and the scientists who did it concluded that two amino acid insertions into H5N1 would cause a pandemic."

If you can show any proof of this, then you'll be the first to do so. What you state is absolutely not true! If I'm wrong...I encourage you to prove it. From the recent 2/20/06 WHO report (note how I am backing my claims?):

"Scientists do not presently know which specific mutations are needed to make the H5N1 virus easily and sustainably transmissible among humans."

http://www.who.int/csr/2006_02_20/en/index.html


2. "And what really puzzles me is how you say that experts can't predict how many mutations are necessary, and then go on to quote Dr. Taubenberger's "30 changes" statement. Shouldn't he be scorned just as greatly as Dr. Nabarro has been if he's predicting how the virus will mutate?"

Go back and re-read my original post. Taubenberger simply was stating how many mutations are required to make it "1918-like". He's comparing the two viruses. A big difference from saying "two mutations away" when science (Taubenberger included) has no idea what mutations are required. Get it?

Again, go find what mutations are required for H2H and you can educate the world.

[bannie]

Once a parasite kills its host, it dies. Successful parasites keep a balance.

[grey_whiskers]

MOSCOW, March 7 (RIA Novosti) - The world is one step away from a bird flu pandemic that cannot be averted by quarantine or vaccination, a Russian expert said Tuesday. "One amino-acid replacement in the genome remains to make the virus transferable from human to human," said Dmitry Lvov, the director of a virology research institute at the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences.

From this thread.

Tick...tick...tick... (short Tyson Foods and Chick-Fil-A)...tick..