Posted on 03/06/2006 3:34:07 PM PST by Esther Ruth
Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle
March 6, 2006
The next sunspot cycle will be 30 to 50 percent stronger than the last one, and begin as much as a year late, according to a breakthrough forecast using a computer model of solar dynamics developed by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo. The research results, funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and NASA, were published on-line on March 3 in the American Geophysical Union journal Geophysical Research Letters.
Scientists now predict that the next cycle, known as Cycle 24, will produce sunspots across an area slightly larger than 2.5 percent of the visible surface of the Sun. The cycle is projected to reach its peak about 2012, one year later than indicated by alternative forecasting methods that rely on statistics.
By analyzing recent solar cycles, the scientists also hope to forecast sunspot activity two solar cycles, or 22 years, into the future. The team is planning in the next year to issue a forecast of Cycle 25, which will peak in the early 2020s.
The researchers expect that predicting the Sun's cycles years in advance will lead to more accurate plans for solar storms, which can slow satellite orbits, disrupt communications, and bring down power systems.
The team has verified the information by using the relatively new technique of helioseismology, based in part on observations from NASA instruments. This technique tracks sound waves reverberating inside the Sun to reveal details about the interior, much as a doctor might use ultrasound to see inside a patient.
"Forecasting the solar cycle will help society anticipate solar storms," says Paul Bellaire, program director in NSF's division of atmospheric sciences, which funded the research. "Important discoveries are being made using helioseismology. Through this technique, we can image even the far side of the Sun."
The scientists gained additional confidence in the forecast by showing that the newly developed model could simulate the strength of the past eight solar cycles with more than 98 percent accuracy.
"The model has demonstrated the necessary skill to be used as a forecasting tool," says NCAR scientist Mausumi Dikpati, the leader of the forecast team at NCAR's High Altitude Observatory. The team also includes NCAR scientists Peter Gilman and Guiliana de Toma.
"This is a significant breakthrough with important applications, especially for satellite-dependent societies," says Gilman.
The Sun goes through approximately 11-year cycles, from peak storm activity to quiet, and back again. Solar scientists have tracked these cycles without being able to predict their relative intensity or timing, says Dikpati.
Solar storms are linked to twisted magnetic fields that suddenly snap and release tremendous amounts of energy. They tend to occur near dark regions of concentrated magnetic fields, known as sunspots.
The NCAR computer model, known as the Predictive Flux-transport Dynamo Model, draws on research indicating that the evolution of sunspots is caused by a current of plasma, or electrified gas, that circulates between the Sun's equator and its poles over a period of 17 to 22 years.
Question I have is, how many sunspot cycles have been observed with this new fangled stuff. If they haven't seen even one yet, I'd wait and see.
Thanks!
Time to buy more gold! Had an old-timer friend that swore on the Solar-Gold cycle!?
I see someone is even selling software to do it:
"The program then analyzes the parameters you set up, and identifies the geocosmic correlates that most stand out, given those parameters. One can then go to the Galactic Trader functions to see when those signatures come up again."
That was the one.
see: http://lrllamas.com/weather/Aurora/index.html
(some pictures I took that night)
The NCAR computer model, known as the Predictive Flux-transport Dynamo Model, draws on research indicating that the evolution of sunspots is caused by a current of plasma, or electrified gas, that circulates between the Sun's equator and its poles over a period of 17 to 22 years.Were it not except to bow like true believers before the the altar of Darwinism, the term "evolution" might have been "development". All praise Holy Darwin and his Works! JMHO.
check that, the web page was a mess.
look here: http://lrllamas.com/Aurora/northernlights/
As Bruce Cockburn put it:
Sunday night and it's half-past nine(x3)
I'm leaving one more town behind
The mirrors are showing the day's last glow(x3)
As we're spit out into the jigsaw flow
Ahead where there should be the thickness of night (x3)
Stars are pinned on a shimmering curtain of light
The sky full of rippling cliffs and chasms(x3)
That shine like signs on the road to heaven
I've been cut by the beauty of jagged mountains(x3)
and cut by the Love that flows like a fountain--from God
so I carry these scars so precious and rare(x3)
and tonight I feel like I'm made of air
Cheers!
I was very proud that the BBC used a few of them on "The Sky Tonight" series. (my 15 milliseconds of fame)
The proof of the pudding is in the predictions. For that one has to wait.
The sunspot cycle does seem to have more regularity than earth weather, but HOW much more is the crucial question. Would seem to me that an almost unimaginably hot ball of gases and plasma like the sun would be more like weather, in terms of chaos, than it is like billiards.
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