{Israeli election] Poll: Kadima on 36 seats, Labor on 18, Likud on 14

Ha'aretz ^ | 26 March 2006 | Yossi Verter

[anotherview]

Last update - 20:44 26/03/2006
Poll: Kadima on 36 seats, Labor on 18, Likud on 14
By Yossi Verter, Haaretz Correspondent

A day and a half before polls open for the 17th Knesset, the latest Haaretz-Channel 10 poll puts Kadima on 36 seats, Labor on 18 and the Likud on 14.

The number of undecided voters has risen to 22 percent of those polled, meaning there are 28 Knesset seats still up for grabs.

The Labor Party, headed by Amir Peretz, has seen no change in the number of predicted seats since last week's poll. The Likud, however, has dropped one seat and Meretz-Yahad has picked up one, bringing it to six.

If the results hold true, it would make it easy for Kadima leader Ehud Olmert to form a stable coalition supportive of his plan for further withdrawals. A coalition made up of Kadima, Labor and Meretz would have 60 seats.

The right-wing bloc which includes the ultra-Orthodox factions amasses just 50 seats while Labor and Meretz manage to muster just 32 seats.

Despite all the media attention and hoopla surrounding Yisrael Beiteinu and its chairman, Avigdor Lieberman, the poll predicts a loss of two seats to seven (from nine in the previous poll). The National Union-National Religious Party, in contrast, can claim credit for an improved showing in the latest poll with 12 seats (as opposed to nine in the previous poll).

The poll does not indicate significant change among the remaining factions - Shas would capture 11 seats, United Torah Judaism earns six seats, and the Arab parties total eight seats.

[anotherview]

The Jerusalem Post story on the same poll:

Mar. 26, 2006 20:33
Poll: Kadima - 36 mandates, Labor - 18, Likud - 14 By JPOST.COM STAFF

According to a Channel 10-Camil Fuchs pre-election poll on the distribution of mandates:

Kadima - 36 mandates, Labor - 18, Likud - 14, Shas - 11, NU-NRP - 12, Yisrael Beiteinu - 7, UTJ - 6, Meretz - 6.

In addition, the Pensioner's Party is projected to pass the minimum threshold.

[anotherview]

ping. It looks like Prime Minister Olmert will have no problem putting together a stable coalition if these numbers are even close.

[anotherview]

All the recent poll results can be seen here.

[SJackson]

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[ScaniaBoy]

I wonder. Unless the pollsters have changed their methodology during the last part of the campaign they are notoriously unreliable. Do they say how many of the sample refused to answer? That is a different from the voters saying they haven't decided who to vote for. According to one analysis I read about a month ago the number of non-responders is unusually high in the Israeli polls which makes them quite useless.

But it will all be revealed...

[anotherview]

Israeli pollsters haven't been significantly wrong since the 1996 elections. They got it right in both 1999 and 2003. I expect they will this time as well. Of course, the only poll that matters is the one on Tuesday.

[Piranha]

Olmert is not Prime Minister. He is Acting Prime Minister. The reason that he is Acting Prime Minister and Benjamin Netanyahu is not Acting Prime Minister is that the government made a finding that Prime Minister Sharon is "temporarily disabled".

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Sharon is dead, but on machines that keep his organs going until they rot, at which time they are removed. This happened to a large part of his colon about two weeks ago. I expect that shortly after the March 28, 2006 election this ghoulish exercise will come to an end and Prime Minister Sharon will be afforded a decent burial.

As for the polls, they are showing that 60% of those 20-28 do not plan to vote. Meanwhile, some are projecting extra-high turnout among those who stand to lose their homes if the Left Wing Kadima Party wins and removes Jews from their homes elsewhere in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank).

Even this poll shows that 22 seats (nearly 10% remain up for grabs because of the growing number of undecided votes.

Historically, Israeli polls have understated the Right Wing results by up to 10 seats, as happened in the last election.

I may be whistling past the graveyard, but I actually will be surprised if the Right Wing/Religious parties fail to reach 61 seats.

[Alouette]

Prime Minister Olmert will have no problem putting together a stable coalition

Why bother to hold elections?

My daughter has told me she is voting for NRP/NU. My son-in-law is still undecided. My son is not allowed to vote because he is a "criminal" (he was arrested at Amona).

[Alouette]

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[conservative blonde]

I think all who believe in the Lord Jesus better get on their knees and pray that His will be done in this election. I don't think His will is that 60% of the voters don't vote. As for polls, they are wrong more than they are right.

[Piranha]

My son is not allowed to vote because he is a "criminal" (he was arrested at Amona).

How does Israel's disenfranchasement law work? I assume he hasn't been convicted of anything. Is he charged with the equivalent of a felony, or is anyone charged with any crime in Israel disenfranchised from the national elections?

[Alouette]

He was in the process of making aliyah when his request for citizenship was denied because he was arrested at Amona.

He has not even been given a court date to argue his case. He has requested a hearing to reverse the decision to deny his aliyah but there has been no response.

Oh, and he put his life on the line in the IDF.

[Honestfreedom]

Is he planning to include the party that wants legalized marijuan? At least they stand for something. Talk about a national malaise.

[Honestfreedom]

I supsect the polls are largely correct. Those losing always say don't believe the polls. With few exceptions they tend to be correct. Hopefully, the nationalists will be more motivated but they don't exactly have great candidates either.

[Salem]

Regardless of the outcome of this election, or the ensuing challenges which will face the Nation of Israel, it will certainly not be something unforseen to the Lord.

Nonetheless, as Caleb and Joshua waited out the transformation of the Jewish people in the beginning, so too, the faith community within this unique nation—and their supporters—will model the same caliber of heart, faith, and spirit, in the years ahead.

---

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[SevenofNine]

Hey guys I got question when we find out israeli election results early Tuesday morning or late Tuesday night

[Salem]

Probably late Tuesday. It'll be posted at Free Republic first, before anywhere else, I'm sure.

[ExtremeUnction]

Do they say how many of the sample refused to answer?

I get polled from time-to-time. I ALWAYS skew my answers in a way that benefits my candidate or my position on an issue. I lie, spin and just make up answers. I'm sure other do as well. So, I don't believe in many polls at all..

[SevenofNine]

OH COOL you know what I be online around that time period COOL rack itt

You are right Freepers get scoop before MSN media get it


While old farts in their tux are partying in Hamptona average Freeper would be in their PJ with bunny slippers posting Israeli news elections LOL!

[SevenofNine]

Alouette question is that good???

Who your daughter voting for and your son in law????