Posted on 03/28/2006 4:32:51 PM PST by Nachum
Well you have labor and kadima at 48 seats, Meretz at 4, so that is 52. The Arabs have 10 seats. That makes 62. The pensioners have 7. That makes 69. Shas favors the same thing. That makes 82, and that is without UTJ. Without the Arabs, its 72. Without Shas it is 59. The hard line nay sayers have about 20 seats. Yisrael Beitenu with 12 seats is a kind of inbetween opportunistic operation. It is a done deal really. Any other spin is just wishful thinking for those who dream the impossible dream, I think.
Kadima 28,
Labor 20,
Shas 13,
Yisrael Beitenu 12,
Likud 11,
NU/NRP 9,
Retirees 7,
UTJ 6,
Meretz 4,
Balad 3,
Hadash 3,
United Arab List 4.
I disagree with your theory that Shas and Israel Beitenu will be reliable coalition partners for Olmert. They are both sectarian parties that can be easily bought, but they will bolt at the first sign of trouble, and their supporters are very right-wing (which makes their success so unfortunate, since I think their supporters will find their votes to have been wasted).
Maybe, although I doubt it, but then if that is true, the left coaltion needs only two Arab votes to carry the day. They will get them, easily. There is a decisive majority for unilateral withdrawal. It will happen.
It's not about votes... it's about maintaining the coalition... and they cannot have Arab parties in the coalition.
I also think you're underestimating the difficulty of maintaining a coalition with far-left parties and religious and right-wing parties. United Torah Judaism and Meretz would not get along like the best of friends... nor would many members of Kadima (as some of them are still pretty far right).
WOW i think they leading heavely on the polls
DOn't tell me there might be FLA Reset in Israel LOL!
Guess a lot of voters were worried about going to hell. :-/
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