Early Results Show Kadima Dropping Below 30 Seats

Only once before in Israeli history has a smaller party formed a government - in 1999 - and it lasted only 18 months.

Exit polls showed Kadima winning between 29 and 32 seats, but results based on a count of nearly three-quarters of the polling stations show Kadima winning only 28 seats. Labor, too, has dropped to 20 seats, while the National Union/NRP have 8 and Shas has 13.

The original post-election forecasts gave the Likud between 10-12 seats, and Labor 19-22. Yisrael Beiteinu was to receive 12-15 seats, followed by Shas with 10-11. The National Union/NRP was estimated to have received 7-9 seats, fewer than what party supporters expected, while United Torah Judaism was foreseen to receive 5-8. The Pensioners - the surprise of the election - were predicted to receive from 6-8 seats, while Meretz was universally given 5 and the Arabs - between 6 and 10.

Pundits and Politicians Respond Haaretz commentator Ari Shavit said, "Ehud Olmert did not receive a mandate to carry out a unilateral withdrawal from Judea and Samaria. Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas are clearly against such a move." Though Shimon Peres of Kadima said tonight that the future coalition will be one that will promote the "turning inward" plan - another name for unilateral withdrawals - not all the Labor MKs support such a move.

If Kadima receives 31 seats or fewer, it will be the 2nd-smallest party ever to head a government in Israel - boding ill for the stability of the coalition. The only smaller party to head a government was One Israel, headed by Ehud Barak. Barak was forced to resign in Dec. 2000 and call new elections after only 18 months in office.

Rafi Eitan, head of the Pensioners Party, expressed great joy at his party's success. A former Israeli intelligence officer, and the recruiter and handler of imprisoned spy Jonathan Pollard, he said last month that if elected to the Knesset, he would work for Pollard's release.

Pollard, however, blames Eitan for his expulsion from the Israeli Embassy, into the hands of US authorities. "I think it is important that people understand that [Eitan] was the one who failed to provide an escape plan for me," Pollard said. "He was the one who was at the heart of my expulsion from the embassy, I believe."

Asked to present his views on the diplomatic situation or on which government he would prefer to sit in, Eitan simply said, "Any leader is acceptable to us, as long as he accepts our demands. We will study the situation and present our positions."

The right-wing bloc, according to the preliminary exit polls, receives only some 50-52 seats. If the Likud in fact receives as few as is foreseen, Silvan Shalom is expected to demand the unseating of Binyamin Netanyahu as party leader. MK Moshe Kachlon, #3 on the list, said, "I would advise you to wait for the genuine results. We have lost much of our strength, but I am sure that the true numbers will not be the ones we see now. If we have to sit in the opposition, we will do so proudly."

The Likud MKs whose places in the Knesset are endangered, according to the exit polls, are Natan Sharansky (#11 on the list), Yisrael Katz (12), Chaim Katz (13), Uzi Landau (14), Yuli Edelstein (15), and others.

The Likud, assuming that it will have no genuine role in the next government, is already working on whose fault the failure is. It is widely assumed that Netanyahu will be deposed. MK Michael Eitan said, "There is no doubt that we deserved a punishment, though I believe that the punishment was a bit too harsh. For one thing, the Central Committee was identified with corruption - sometimes unjustly. Also, we had a big split... Third, the Likud zig-zagged, and the public doesn't like that... Many of the Likudniks remained in the party, but merely stayed home; we see that in the low voter turnout in the Likud strongholds."

Likud senior Ruby Rivlin said that the Likud has great traditions, but it must "consider the reasons why it failed so deeply."

MK Danny Yatom (Labor) said that the results are a "great blow to Kadima, and bring great joy to Labor."

Members of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, headed by Avigdor Lieberman, were not surprised by their positive showing, which is estimated at between 12 and 15 seats according to the various polls.

The exit polls, which have not proven to be particularly accurate in the past, indicate that a fair portion of the Knesset will be replaced next month. New Knesset Members will include 6-8 from the Pensioners Party, approximately ten new Yisrael Beiteinu MKs, and about a dozen from Kadima,

As predicted by the surveys of the past few months, the anti-religious Shinui party will not be present in the upcoming 17th Knesset. A statement from the party expressed its disappointment but promised, “Shinui was established 30 years ago and will continue to exist for at least 30 more years."

Well you have labor and kadima at 48 seats, Meretz at 4, so that is 52. The Arabs have 10 seats. That makes 62. The pensioners have 7. That makes 69. Shas favors the same thing. That makes 82, and that is without UTJ. Without the Arabs, its 72. Without Shas it is 59. The hard line nay sayers have about 20 seats. Yisrael Beitenu with 12 seats is a kind of inbetween opportunistic operation. It is a done deal really. Any other spin is just wishful thinking for those who dream the impossible dream, I think.

Kadima 28,
Labor 20,
Shas 13,
Yisrael Beitenu 12,
Likud 11,
NU/NRP 9,
Retirees 7,
UTJ 6,
Meretz 4,
Balad 3,
Hadash 3,
United Arab List 4.

I disagree with your theory that Shas and Israel Beitenu will be reliable coalition partners for Olmert. They are both sectarian parties that can be easily bought, but they will bolt at the first sign of trouble, and their supporters are very right-wing (which makes their success so unfortunate, since I think their supporters will find their votes to have been wasted).

Maybe, although I doubt it, but then if that is true, the left coaltion needs only two Arab votes to carry the day. They will get them, easily. There is a decisive majority for unilateral withdrawal. It will happen.

It's not about votes... it's about maintaining the coalition... and they cannot have Arab parties in the coalition.
I also think you're underestimating the difficulty of maintaining a coalition with far-left parties and religious and right-wing parties. United Torah Judaism and Meretz would not get along like the best of friends... nor would many members of Kadima (as some of them are still pretty far right).

WOW i think they leading heavely on the polls

DOn't tell me there might be FLA Reset in Israel LOL!

Shas: in 3rd place with 13 seats. Oh. My. G-D.

Guess a lot of voters were worried about going to hell. :-/

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