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Posted on 03/28/2006 4:32:51 PM PST by Nachum
This is a huge blow for Kadima. This means that Kadima and Labor only have 48 seats between them, that may actually be less than they had in the current parliament (though I'll have to check). On the right, Likud, Israel Beitenu, Shas, and NRP/NU collectively come to approximately the same number of seats, and if you include United Torah Judaism, they have significantly more seats.
This is really disasterous for Labor as well. Peretz was supposed to bring in 28 seats when he first became Labor chairman.. and even that was a figure that never would have been acceptable for Labor in the past. And yet he only got 20 seats! Even less than in the last election, which was considered a disaster for labor.
Didn't some of the smaller right wing parties gain a significant number of seats, if I'm recalling the # they had previously? If so, it's not the disaster for the right that they're making it out to be.
I'm guessing there won't be nearly as many kadima voters the next time around.
Oh, and welcome to Free Republic.
"any chance for a coalition government other than Kadima/Labor?"
The real story of this election is not that the right lost... but that the right was too divided to possibly win. Kadima, while being labelled as "center" or even "center-left" today, is actually made up of the moderate wing of the Likud party. That's an importnat distinction, since most moderate conservatives voted Kadima this time, and are more likely to turn to parties on the right than the left after Kadima implodes (which all centrist parties do in parliamentary democracies, and indeed it already has imploded as 28 seats is only a little more than half what they were expected to garner at one point).
One could actually say that this is a victory for the right, as even without the moderate right, they still could form a government if they could unite. Likud, Israel Beitenu, NRP/NU, Shas, and UTJ are all pretty hard-right parties, and if even some of them could unite, tonight would have been an unprecedented victory for the hard right, rather than a step towards marginalization.
ping
"MK Danny Yatom (Labor) said that the results are a "great blow to Kadima, and bring great joy to Labor.""
This would make me laugh if it didn't make me gag first. What spin this is... that 20 seats out of 120 is a "great joy to Labor", the party that used to dominate Israeli politics, not to mention the hopes that this time they would get massive support from the sephardim and working class. Didn't happen... back to the drawing board boys... I think Peretz's days are numbered.
Rafi Eitan, head of the Pensioners Party, expressed great joy at his party's success. A former Israeli intelligence officer, and the recruiter and handler of imprisoned spy Jonathan Pollard, he said last month that if elected to the Knesset, he would work for Pollard's release.According to the Bloomberg article on the election, Kadima regards Pensioners as a natural ally and potential coalition partner. There are a couple of very small parties which have newly won seats. Dunno offhand how many Kadima will need, but it looks like it's Olmert's party now. :') Meanwhile, Bibi blames Ariel Sharon -- still in a coma -- for Likud's poor showing, but that's right in character for Bibi.
Was the Likud campaign really this inept?
Very interesting analysis, thank you.
Most of us had already realized that Israeli voters would rapidly grow disenchanted with Kadima, and that this new party-with absolutely no firm convictions or principles-would eke out any election victory.
So, Binyimin Netanyahu is a putz, who is a failed political leader.
None of this comes as a surprise, to be perfectly honest.
Kadima 28,
Labor 20,
Shas 13,
Yisrael Beitenu 12,
Likud 11,
NU/NRP 9,
Retirees 7,
UTJ 6,
Meretz 4,
Balad 3,
Hadash 3,
United Arab List 4.
Livnat, Katz and Shalom Absent at Likud Meeting
02:50 Mar 29, '06 / 29 Adar 576
http://www.israelnn.com/news.php3?id=101040
"In view of its crash at the polls Tuesday night, senior members of the Likud party met at its Tel Aviv headquarters to discuss the election results. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Knesset members Silvan Shalom and Yisrael Katz, however, did not attend the meeting."
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"Was the Likud campaign really this inept?"
That I'm not sure about, only an insider can really know for sure. Netanyahu is quite popular among American Jews, and I personally believe that he was the only candidate in this election that understood the problem of Islamo-fascism and the trouble Israel is in with the world community.
However, I hear that within Israel he is considered a sleezeball. His personal life is not exactly the ideal for a political leader (a few divorces and affairs), and he is considered a political opportunist.
I think that these things may have been overlooked had the security picture not looked suddenly so rosy. The terrorism has abated enormously thanks to Israel's tough policies earlier in this decade, plus Hamas's decision to temporarily cease fire as it saw an opportunity to seize power and territory. When Olmert gives him everything he wants to give them, however, they will go right back to terrorism (and they have not stated otherwise), and that could be Bibi's moment.
Kadima will form a stable coalition. Its policies on unilateral withdrawal, are supported by about 75 of the members of parliament who were elected, and that is without the 9 Arab votes.
"Kadima will form a stable coalition. Its policies on unilateral withdrawal, are supported by about 75 of the members of parliament who were elected, and that is without the 9 Arab votes."
I respectfully disagree. I think you are counting everybody aside from Likud and NRP/NU as pro-withdrawal... which is not the case. I do think that Kadima will be able to form a coalition though, since so many people decided to waste their votes on parties that appear right-wing, but in fact will just be pawns traded around in coalition deals.
I don't see how you can have security when you're within missile range of Al Qaeda on the West Bank.
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