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Posted on 03/28/2006 4:32:51 PM PST by Nachum
Only once before in Israeli history has a smaller party formed a government - in 1999 - and it lasted only 18 months.
Exit polls showed Kadima winning between 29 and 32 seats, but results based on a count of nearly three-quarters of the polling stations show Kadima winning only 28 seats. Labor, too, has dropped to 20 seats, while the National Union/NRP have 8 and Shas has 13.
The original post-election forecasts gave the Likud between 10-12 seats, and Labor 19-22. Yisrael Beiteinu was to receive 12-15 seats, followed by Shas with 10-11. The National Union/NRP was estimated to have received 7-9 seats, fewer than what party supporters expected, while United Torah Judaism was foreseen to receive 5-8. The Pensioners - the surprise of the election - were predicted to receive from 6-8 seats, while Meretz was universally given 5 and the Arabs - between 6 and 10.
Pundits and Politicians Respond Haaretz commentator Ari Shavit said, "Ehud Olmert did not receive a mandate to carry out a unilateral withdrawal from Judea and Samaria. Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas are clearly against such a move." Though Shimon Peres of Kadima said tonight that the future coalition will be one that will promote the "turning inward" plan - another name for unilateral withdrawals - not all the Labor MKs support such a move.
If Kadima receives 31 seats or fewer, it will be the 2nd-smallest party ever to head a government in Israel - boding ill for the stability of the coalition. The only smaller party to head a government was One Israel, headed by Ehud Barak. Barak was forced to resign in Dec. 2000 and call new elections after only 18 months in office.
Rafi Eitan, head of the Pensioners Party, expressed great joy at his party's success. A former Israeli intelligence officer, and the recruiter and handler of imprisoned spy Jonathan Pollard, he said last month that if elected to the Knesset, he would work for Pollard's release.
Pollard, however, blames Eitan for his expulsion from the Israeli Embassy, into the hands of US authorities. "I think it is important that people understand that [Eitan] was the one who failed to provide an escape plan for me," Pollard said. "He was the one who was at the heart of my expulsion from the embassy, I believe."
Asked to present his views on the diplomatic situation or on which government he would prefer to sit in, Eitan simply said, "Any leader is acceptable to us, as long as he accepts our demands. We will study the situation and present our positions."
The right-wing bloc, according to the preliminary exit polls, receives only some 50-52 seats. If the Likud in fact receives as few as is foreseen, Silvan Shalom is expected to demand the unseating of Binyamin Netanyahu as party leader. MK Moshe Kachlon, #3 on the list, said, "I would advise you to wait for the genuine results. We have lost much of our strength, but I am sure that the true numbers will not be the ones we see now. If we have to sit in the opposition, we will do so proudly."
The Likud MKs whose places in the Knesset are endangered, according to the exit polls, are Natan Sharansky (#11 on the list), Yisrael Katz (12), Chaim Katz (13), Uzi Landau (14), Yuli Edelstein (15), and others.
The Likud, assuming that it will have no genuine role in the next government, is already working on whose fault the failure is. It is widely assumed that Netanyahu will be deposed. MK Michael Eitan said, "There is no doubt that we deserved a punishment, though I believe that the punishment was a bit too harsh. For one thing, the Central Committee was identified with corruption - sometimes unjustly. Also, we had a big split... Third, the Likud zig-zagged, and the public doesn't like that... Many of the Likudniks remained in the party, but merely stayed home; we see that in the low voter turnout in the Likud strongholds."
Likud senior Ruby Rivlin said that the Likud has great traditions, but it must "consider the reasons why it failed so deeply."
MK Danny Yatom (Labor) said that the results are a "great blow to Kadima, and bring great joy to Labor."
Members of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, headed by Avigdor Lieberman, were not surprised by their positive showing, which is estimated at between 12 and 15 seats according to the various polls.
The exit polls, which have not proven to be particularly accurate in the past, indicate that a fair portion of the Knesset will be replaced next month. New Knesset Members will include 6-8 from the Pensioners Party, approximately ten new Yisrael Beiteinu MKs, and about a dozen from Kadima,
As predicted by the surveys of the past few months, the anti-religious Shinui party will not be present in the upcoming 17th Knesset. A statement from the party expressed its disappointment but promised, “Shinui was established 30 years ago and will continue to exist for at least 30 more years."
This is a huge blow for Kadima. This means that Kadima and Labor only have 48 seats between them, that may actually be less than they had in the current parliament (though I'll have to check). On the right, Likud, Israel Beitenu, Shas, and NRP/NU collectively come to approximately the same number of seats, and if you include United Torah Judaism, they have significantly more seats.
This is really disasterous for Labor as well. Peretz was supposed to bring in 28 seats when he first became Labor chairman.. and even that was a figure that never would have been acceptable for Labor in the past. And yet he only got 20 seats! Even less than in the last election, which was considered a disaster for labor.
Didn't some of the smaller right wing parties gain a significant number of seats, if I'm recalling the # they had previously? If so, it's not the disaster for the right that they're making it out to be.
I'm guessing there won't be nearly as many kadima voters the next time around.
Oh, and welcome to Free Republic.
"any chance for a coalition government other than Kadima/Labor?"
The real story of this election is not that the right lost... but that the right was too divided to possibly win. Kadima, while being labelled as "center" or even "center-left" today, is actually made up of the moderate wing of the Likud party. That's an importnat distinction, since most moderate conservatives voted Kadima this time, and are more likely to turn to parties on the right than the left after Kadima implodes (which all centrist parties do in parliamentary democracies, and indeed it already has imploded as 28 seats is only a little more than half what they were expected to garner at one point).
One could actually say that this is a victory for the right, as even without the moderate right, they still could form a government if they could unite. Likud, Israel Beitenu, NRP/NU, Shas, and UTJ are all pretty hard-right parties, and if even some of them could unite, tonight would have been an unprecedented victory for the hard right, rather than a step towards marginalization.
ping
"MK Danny Yatom (Labor) said that the results are a "great blow to Kadima, and bring great joy to Labor.""
This would make me laugh if it didn't make me gag first. What spin this is... that 20 seats out of 120 is a "great joy to Labor", the party that used to dominate Israeli politics, not to mention the hopes that this time they would get massive support from the sephardim and working class. Didn't happen... back to the drawing board boys... I think Peretz's days are numbered.
Rafi Eitan, head of the Pensioners Party, expressed great joy at his party's success. A former Israeli intelligence officer, and the recruiter and handler of imprisoned spy Jonathan Pollard, he said last month that if elected to the Knesset, he would work for Pollard's release.According to the Bloomberg article on the election, Kadima regards Pensioners as a natural ally and potential coalition partner. There are a couple of very small parties which have newly won seats. Dunno offhand how many Kadima will need, but it looks like it's Olmert's party now. :') Meanwhile, Bibi blames Ariel Sharon -- still in a coma -- for Likud's poor showing, but that's right in character for Bibi.
Was the Likud campaign really this inept?
Very interesting analysis, thank you.
Most of us had already realized that Israeli voters would rapidly grow disenchanted with Kadima, and that this new party-with absolutely no firm convictions or principles-would eke out any election victory.
So, Binyimin Netanyahu is a putz, who is a failed political leader.
None of this comes as a surprise, to be perfectly honest.
Kadima 28,
Labor 20,
Shas 13,
Yisrael Beitenu 12,
Likud 11,
NU/NRP 9,
Retirees 7,
UTJ 6,
Meretz 4,
Balad 3,
Hadash 3,
United Arab List 4.
Livnat, Katz and Shalom Absent at Likud Meeting
02:50 Mar 29, '06 / 29 Adar 576
http://www.israelnn.com/news.php3?id=101040
"In view of its crash at the polls Tuesday night, senior members of the Likud party met at its Tel Aviv headquarters to discuss the election results. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Knesset members Silvan Shalom and Yisrael Katz, however, did not attend the meeting."
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"Was the Likud campaign really this inept?"
That I'm not sure about, only an insider can really know for sure. Netanyahu is quite popular among American Jews, and I personally believe that he was the only candidate in this election that understood the problem of Islamo-fascism and the trouble Israel is in with the world community.
However, I hear that within Israel he is considered a sleezeball. His personal life is not exactly the ideal for a political leader (a few divorces and affairs), and he is considered a political opportunist.
I think that these things may have been overlooked had the security picture not looked suddenly so rosy. The terrorism has abated enormously thanks to Israel's tough policies earlier in this decade, plus Hamas's decision to temporarily cease fire as it saw an opportunity to seize power and territory. When Olmert gives him everything he wants to give them, however, they will go right back to terrorism (and they have not stated otherwise), and that could be Bibi's moment.
Kadima will form a stable coalition. Its policies on unilateral withdrawal, are supported by about 75 of the members of parliament who were elected, and that is without the 9 Arab votes.
"Kadima will form a stable coalition. Its policies on unilateral withdrawal, are supported by about 75 of the members of parliament who were elected, and that is without the 9 Arab votes."
I respectfully disagree. I think you are counting everybody aside from Likud and NRP/NU as pro-withdrawal... which is not the case. I do think that Kadima will be able to form a coalition though, since so many people decided to waste their votes on parties that appear right-wing, but in fact will just be pawns traded around in coalition deals.
I don't see how you can have security when you're within missile range of Al Qaeda on the West Bank.
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