Posted on 03/28/2006 7:30:01 PM PST by Buddy B
Republicans risk Hispanic support in border debate
28 March, 2006
By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
WASHINGTON - The debate on immigration poses deep political risks for a divided Republican Party that could see its recent gains among Hispanics wiped out if Congress approves a bill that gets tough with illegal workers.
The Republican split on immigration, on full display as senators took up the issue on Monday amid emotional street protests, could sabotage the party‘s long-range effort to court the country‘s fastest growing ethnic group, Hispanic activists and analysts said.
"If they go ahead and crack down, Republicans are dead in the Latino community for a generation," said Antonio Gonzalez, a Los Angeles-based community organizer who heads the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project.
Party strategists have vivid memories of California‘s 1994 passage of Proposition 187, which cut off public services for illegal immigrants. The measure, backed by then-Gov. Pete Wilson, a Republican, was thrown out by the courts but the resulting furor helped turn the state solidly Democratic.
"Pete Wilson set back the Republican Party in California," said Daniel Griswold, a trade and immigration expert at the conservative Cato Institute think tank.
The intense debate on immigration pits conservatives who favor a tough approach to the country‘s 12 million illegal immigrants against Republican business interests that rely on immigrant labor.
President George W. Bush President George W. Bush, mindful of the growing clout of Hispanic voters, has pushed hard for a guest worker program with high Hispanic appeal that would allow immigrants to stay in the country while applying for permanent residency.
The House of Representatives approved a bill last year that does not include Bush‘s guest worker program and tightened a variety of restrictions on illegal immigrants. A Senate committee included a guest worker provision in a measure sent to the full chamber on Monday.
The philosophical clash follows years of determined Republican courtship of Hispanics, the nation‘s largest minority with a population of more than 40 million. That population is projected to more than double by 2050.
Unlike blacks, the most reliable of Democratic voters, Hispanic votes have been up for grabs and have become crucial swing blocs in key states like Florida and in emerging battlegrounds like Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona in the Southwest.
Bush, a former Texas governor who speaks Spanish, increased his share of the Hispanic vote to more than 40 percent in 2004, up from 35 percent in 2000. Republican Bob Dole won just 21 percent of the Hispanic vote in the 1996 presidential race.
But that trend is endangered by the sight of Republicans leading the charge for tougher immigration policies, said Perry Vasquez, Colorado state chairman of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly.
"I‘m fearful of the impact this will have," Vasquez said. "The Hispanic community is going to be deciding more elections going forward, and Republicans are missing a real opportunity to bring them in."
Marta Guevara, former Washington state chairwoman of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly, said the debate already was having an effect.
"It‘s already started to hurt Republicans," Guevara said. "I‘ve worked so hard for so many years for the Republican Party, but I‘m worried the party isn‘t concerned about the principles I‘ve been talking about."
The risk of alienating Hispanics is much greater than the risk of turning off conservatives, Griswold said. He noted Republicans who supported guest worker programs like Reps. Jeff Flake and Jim Kolbe in Arizona and Chris Cannon in Utah have survived primary challenges from anti-immigration opponents.
"The Republican base is not going to abandon the party over immigration, but Republicans are running a very real risk of alienating millions of Hispanic voters," he said.
Marisol Jimenez McGee, director of advocacy for El Pueblo, a Hispanic group in Raleigh, North Carolina, said the debate had been devastating for the Hispanic community. She said they would remember how members of Congress voted.
"Latinos vote on issues, they don‘t vote on parties. There will be lots of attention paid to where people stood on this issue. The memory of the community is long," she said.
The liberal media would love to foist the BS on us Hispanics are against border security. Not true, just illegal Hispanics are against it. Tough beans.
"The Republican base is not going to abandon the party over immigration, but Republicans are running a very real risk of alienating millions of Hispanic voters," he said.
- end quote -
And that's the bottom line right there. Our Republican leaders know that when push comes to shove we're going to have a choice between a Republican who voted for open borders and a liberal who voted for open borders. And we won't vote for the liberal. Sure, we'll say we'll vote for a third party, but that never happens in any large numbers. And if it did it would only help the liberals.
and going where? Pat Buchanan again? LMAO!!!!
"Wrong ACE...the base is already beginning to boil over....and evaporate"
We're boiing for sure. But let's assume we had a Kerry versus Bush race again this year. You know darn well we'd grumble and vote for Bush. That's why we're screwed on this issue.
The flag pole is upside-down or if you stand on your head all is OK.
I won't vote for any Republican that supports a package of goodies for illegal aliens, and neither will a lot of other conservatives. If they think the Party will be in big trouble alienating the Mexicans, they have no idea what trouble really is.
This stands in blissful ignorance of all polling I have seen - including a poll of one in my home life - over the difference between citzen hispanics and illegal immigrant hispanics.
My wife is hispanic but is native born - and she is more adamant against illegals than I am. And most polling shows she is the rule, not the exception, in that category.
So what this boils down to is not about the GOP's standing in the hispanic community (and that is largely a liberal invention anyway, just as tying me, a Scot-Irish/German mutt to those still over there is aburd).
What this boils down to is who is courting the POTENTIAL vote base of illegals. But the GOP can take POTENTIAL and turn it into NO WAY, JOSE by saying no to amnesty.
One of these days, telling the base they have nowhere else to go isn't gonna work any longer.
I've lost count of how many Conservatives say they'll just sit it out and not vote at all. Others say they're just going to vote against those who pander to the Illegals. In either case, the Republicans are going to pay dearly for this. Somebody (Rove???) is dishing out some terrible advice.
Oh really? We'll see about that!
It is posted on this website: Southwest Voter Registration Education Project
---and going where? Pat Buchanan again? LMAO!!!!---
I detest Pat Buchanan and would never vote for him but I will not vote for these sellouts. What difference does it make if Republicans of Democrats preside over the ruin of this country? If we can't win, why play at all?
Single issue voters will never be happy with less than 100%. If Hillary is appealing to you then go ahead and sit the elections out. Actually if the so called "base" wants to become irrelevant then that's the way to go.
So many threats from every which way.
And it's nice to see you are doing your best to help elect Hillary.
Just look at what your type did in WA state 2004. Your type sat out for no good reason, and Rossi lost on the 45th recount (an exaggeration, bt I want to make a point) by 100 votes-because "conservatives" sat out.
They are liberal democrats GOP would be risking nothing.
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