Posted on 03/28/2006 7:30:01 PM PST by Buddy B
Republicans risk Hispanic support in border debate
28 March, 2006
By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
WASHINGTON - The debate on immigration poses deep political risks for a divided Republican Party that could see its recent gains among Hispanics wiped out if Congress approves a bill that gets tough with illegal workers.
The Republican split on immigration, on full display as senators took up the issue on Monday amid emotional street protests, could sabotage the party‘s long-range effort to court the country‘s fastest growing ethnic group, Hispanic activists and analysts said.
"If they go ahead and crack down, Republicans are dead in the Latino community for a generation," said Antonio Gonzalez, a Los Angeles-based community organizer who heads the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project.
Party strategists have vivid memories of California‘s 1994 passage of Proposition 187, which cut off public services for illegal immigrants. The measure, backed by then-Gov. Pete Wilson, a Republican, was thrown out by the courts but the resulting furor helped turn the state solidly Democratic.
"Pete Wilson set back the Republican Party in California," said Daniel Griswold, a trade and immigration expert at the conservative Cato Institute think tank.
The intense debate on immigration pits conservatives who favor a tough approach to the country‘s 12 million illegal immigrants against Republican business interests that rely on immigrant labor.
President George W. Bush President George W. Bush, mindful of the growing clout of Hispanic voters, has pushed hard for a guest worker program with high Hispanic appeal that would allow immigrants to stay in the country while applying for permanent residency.
The House of Representatives approved a bill last year that does not include Bush‘s guest worker program and tightened a variety of restrictions on illegal immigrants. A Senate committee included a guest worker provision in a measure sent to the full chamber on Monday.
The philosophical clash follows years of determined Republican courtship of Hispanics, the nation‘s largest minority with a population of more than 40 million. That population is projected to more than double by 2050.
Unlike blacks, the most reliable of Democratic voters, Hispanic votes have been up for grabs and have become crucial swing blocs in key states like Florida and in emerging battlegrounds like Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona in the Southwest.
Bush, a former Texas governor who speaks Spanish, increased his share of the Hispanic vote to more than 40 percent in 2004, up from 35 percent in 2000. Republican Bob Dole won just 21 percent of the Hispanic vote in the 1996 presidential race.
But that trend is endangered by the sight of Republicans leading the charge for tougher immigration policies, said Perry Vasquez, Colorado state chairman of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly.
"I‘m fearful of the impact this will have," Vasquez said. "The Hispanic community is going to be deciding more elections going forward, and Republicans are missing a real opportunity to bring them in."
Marta Guevara, former Washington state chairwoman of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly, said the debate already was having an effect.
"It‘s already started to hurt Republicans," Guevara said. "I‘ve worked so hard for so many years for the Republican Party, but I‘m worried the party isn‘t concerned about the principles I‘ve been talking about."
The risk of alienating Hispanics is much greater than the risk of turning off conservatives, Griswold said. He noted Republicans who supported guest worker programs like Reps. Jeff Flake and Jim Kolbe in Arizona and Chris Cannon in Utah have survived primary challenges from anti-immigration opponents.
"The Republican base is not going to abandon the party over immigration, but Republicans are running a very real risk of alienating millions of Hispanic voters," he said.
Marisol Jimenez McGee, director of advocacy for El Pueblo, a Hispanic group in Raleigh, North Carolina, said the debate had been devastating for the Hispanic community. She said they would remember how members of Congress voted.
"Latinos vote on issues, they don‘t vote on parties. There will be lots of attention paid to where people stood on this issue. The memory of the community is long," she said.
Yep, 47% if I recall.
Republicans are fools to think they'll get the "hispanic" vote...That won't ever happen even with unconditional amnesty.
What's the difference between conservative and libertarian in your opinion?
Since most elections are determined by a small percentage, a determined group willing to place a special interest above all else can exercise a disproportionate influence. A prime example is the abortion issue where many people opposed to the issue will still vote for a pro-abortion candidate because of other issues, but almost no one who supports abortion will vote for a pro-life candidate for any reason. Likewise, if and when a core group of voters can convince their elected representatives that real border control is the single controlling issue in determining their vote, we will see action, but probably not before then. This would mean support for a single issue in each race, not for party or philosophical control.
A split base is deadly for either party. Nader hurt Gore, probably costing him the election. In the tight races we've seen a 1% insurgency is all it takes to put you in the loser column.
The Republicans should be scared, very scared, of this issue if it pisses off the base. Tom Trancredo might not have a shot at being the Republican nominee for President, but he holds that nominees fate in his hands. (I think he's starting to know it too.)
Also, several districts in California (San Francisco for one) are planning/trying to make it legal for illegals to vote in school board elections.
The last time I noticed, the non-Hispanics, voters and non-voters amount to a larger percentage of Americans than do the Hispanics, at least for this week.
More rat lies. A majority of legal hispanics want stricter border/immigration control too.
Hispanic voters risk having their children/grandchildren/great-grandchildren digging in garbage heaps for food if they don't stop their support of the illegal hoards. Everything they came here to escape is right behind them, and us, if they don't wise up.
Back in the 1970's Planned Parenthood called for "zero population growth". People around the world were told to have no more than two children (my husband and I had one) or we risk overpopulation. The third world countries paid no heed. Now, Americans are told that because we stopped having children our country has to let illegal immigrants in. This just isn't right. I would rather be paying for parks, schools, hospitals... for my children/grandchildren not a bunch of lawbreakers. And you can bet I'm telling Bush just that.
Did you bother doing a bit of research into Dan Griswold's other thoughts? I believe he is for open borders. As in, literally open borders.
Would Arizona like to give Dan Griswold his wish?
Did you know that Griswold was the inspiration for Bush's "guest" worker scheme?
Did you know that that scheme was designed to allow "guests" to take *any* sort of job? As in *any", not just picking strawberries. Specifically mentioned were teachers and nurses.
Did you know that Cannon's brother is head of the Utah GOP?
Did you know that Chris Cannon's opponent came close, despite having much less money than Cannon?
And, of course, you're probably aware of the Prop. 200 exit polls showing IIRC 46% of Hispanics voting for it.
Bingo! You're absolutely right. I had forgotten about that, but you just hit the nail on the head!
It makes me so angry I sometimes have to just sit down and cry about it.
You know, I guess you could say we also aborted our future workforce. I think abortion was made legal in 1972.
I have always wondered why this is always about republicans. What about the democrats? The unions are being killed by this issue, Why don't they speak up?
Los primativos
Please re-read the post. I didn't say LMAO, the other person did.
The Republicans should be scared, very scared, of this issue if it pisses off the base.
The moderate and liberal Republicans need to realize they can splinter the party over this and vote accordingly.
Sorry, dirtboy. My apologies.
Good point.
The GOP is worried about the Hispanic, aka ILLEGAL vote? They should be worried about MY vote. WTH is going on here? The first candidate who swears to cut benefits off and enforce the laws against illegal immigration and employment will WIN the election.
The time for "civil debate" is up. President Bush, take care of your Country. We are in distress.
sw
Cheap labor capitol of WY. They are voting their Raza not issues.
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