Posted on 04/23/2006 6:47:02 AM PDT by Borax Queen
WASHINGTON — Nowhere in the country is immigration likely to play a bigger role in politics than in Arizona's U.S. Senate race, in which incumbent Republican Jon Kyl is seeking a third term.
Seven months from Election Day, Democrats and immigrant- rights activists are hoping to take advantage of anger about the issue and mobilize Latino voters behind Kyl's Democratic challenger, Jim Pederson.
Meanwhile, experts say Arizona Republicans are using immigration to keep conservative voters engaged, hoping their support for more restrictions makes conservatives eager to go to the polls for Kyl despite dissatisfaction with the national GOP and President Bush.
"It is clear this is going to trigger a lot of voting that might not have otherwise occurred," said pollster Earl de Berge, of the Phoenix-based Behavior Research Center.
Experts say the result will turn on who is more motivated to go to the polls come Nov. 7.
Kyl has played a major role in a recent Senate debate over immigration policy, arguing that immigrants should go home before applying to return to the United States as guest workers. His position has stirred up both sides of the immigration debate.
In the last month, hundreds of thousands of people marched in the streets of Phoenix and Tucson opposed to austere restrictions on illegal immigration.
Many marchers targeted Kyl specifically, waving signs that read, "Senator Kyl, we want permanent residency" and "Senator Kyl, no more wall," said immigrant rights activist Jennifer Allen, director of the Tucson-based Border Action Network.
The marches "showed that the community has strength and that the community has power, and we are willing to take to the streets," she said.
Allen said her group and others will launch voter-registration campaigns aimed at getting Latinos who live on the border to go to the polls.
But while Latinos marched in huge numbers, conservatives also held counterdemonstrations, and the issue has dominated talk radio and other media.
Experts say that while the marches may eventually mobilize Latino voters, it may take time for them to register in large enough numbers to make a difference.
Meanwhile, experts say, Kyl may be saying just what he needs to in order to please Republican voters.
"I assume Kyl has made a calculation and knows the politics of immigration in Arizona," said Thomas Mann, who studies congressional issues for the Brookings Institution think tank. "I'm guessing … he's thought this one through."
Kyl said in an interview with The Associated Press that while the marches may have awakened Latino voters, they have motivated others as well.
"I'm getting at least 500 calls a day, and I don't think there's been one yet that hasn't taken the position that I should get tougher and get the border secured and enforce the law," he said. "I think there is a silent majority out there that may be getting concerned as well. It's hard to say what the impact of all this is."
But Kyl says he's sticking to his plan because it's the right thing to do.
"If that hurts me politically, so be it," he said. The answer may turn on whether the Senate acts on immigration this year.
The Senate Judiciary Committee approved a bill that would have created a guest-worker program and a path for illegal immigrants to gain citizenship.
Kyl opposed the bill because he is opposed to giving citizenship to people who broke the law to come to the United States.
Pederson's campaign has attacked Kyl's actions, accusing him of working against a compromise immigration bill. Pederson supports the plan approved by the Judiciary Committee.
But experts say that anything that keeps the focus on immigration and not on Bush or issues that have disenchanted voters probably helps Kyl.
"This is a diversionary issue," de Berge said. "Some people believe Kyl is vulnerable because he's so close to the president on Iraq and other issues. The question is how long will it linger?"
We need to remember the example of Florida in 2004.
The Democrats were very effective at mobilizing large crowds hostile to Bush to get to all the early voting sites. If you had watched those crowds on the streets, you would have thought that Kerry was certain to win.
However, while the Republicans did not take to the streets, they turned out in droves to vote on election day. They mobilized with talk radio and the internet.
Unlike many Democrat voters, grass roots Republicans have jobs, families, and community responsibilities, and aren't looking for mob rule democracy.
Bottom line... America is still a Republic, and not a mob rule Latin American state. I suspect that the real VOTERS will be siding with Kyl on election day.
Hey Guys Look!
I really get a kick out of the way you are blaming this on the Dems. Reps have the majority and it is them who don't have the balls to build a fence on our border. This Republican president is more interested in globalizing our country than he is in defending it.
Don't think so? Read http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1602247/posts?page=22#22 and then read the entire article and you'll see there isn't a damn bit of difference between the goals of either party.
IOW, DUMP McCAIN!!!! He is the primary sponsor of the Senate bill that gives the invaders amnesty and a guest worker program!!
Hidden Bombs (Extremely Important Article on Immigration)
The second nasty surprise? Just before the committee approved the bill on the evening of March 27, Sen. Richard Durbin (D-Ill.) offered the "DREAM Act" as an amendment. It passed on a voice vote.The DREAM Act is a nightmare. It repeals a 1996 law that prohibits state universities from offering in-state tuition rates to illegal aliens. The principle, of course, is that no illegal alien should be entitled to receive a taxpayer-subsidized benefit that out-of-state U.S. citizens can't get. But the committee's bill allows illegals to be treated better than those U.S. citizens on tuition.
Interestingly enough, even Hillary kind of "gets it" where Mexico's nearly
omnipotent oligarchs are concerned:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/ideas_opinions/story/411104p-347791c.html
"[Mrs. Clinton] said she favors a "carrot-and-stick" approach with Mexico to
provide that government and its "oligarchs" the incentives to give Mexicans
more and better jobs in their own country."
Frankly, the more pressure we keep on Mexico, immigration-wise, the more
reformers inside of Mexico can be emboldened and empowered to scale back
monopolists' abuses down there which keep our own country flooded with
economic refugees. Here's an interesting thread on new legal reform progress
that finally
emerged in Mexico I think as a result of immigration reform's failure:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1611677/posts
We can make a difference for our sake, and their's as well, by cracking down
and demanding more activism by our own United States Trade Representative
against protectionist Mexican oligarchs in, for example, the monopolistic
petroleum, telecommunications, electricity and television media sectors.
Isn't prodding our neighbor to finally clean up its own backyard before
lambasting us for ours the neighborly thing to do?
I'm as mad at the Republicans as anybody, but here in Arizona the choices are stark. Kyl, Goldwater, and Randy Graf. I'm definitely voting.
Jim Pederson has been running a lot of TV commercials here in Tucson. There is NEVER any mention that he is a Democrat.
Hey, Jim - What are you afraid of?
Could you live with saying that you did nothing to stop it?
I tried voting 100% R since 1968 and am sick of what the Party has accomplished. Now, I would vote for a conservative Dem over a socialist R anyday.
Goldwater will never beat El Napo. I met Len Munsil yesterday and he comes across much better. So does Jan Smith-Florez.
I like Don Goldwater personally; but he comes across in debates as arrogant, and he will make El Napo look a lot smarter than she is.
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