Iran could have nuclear weapon within four years says IISS

Deutsche Presse-Agentur by way of Monsters and Critics ^ | 24MAY06 | Deutsche Presse-Agentur

[familyop]

London - Iran could be able to produce between 20 and 25 kilos of highly-enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon by 2010, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London said Wednesday.

'The IISS estimate of 2010 remains valid,' the institute said in its report The Military Balance 2006 published Wednesday.

Other estimates of an Iranian nuclear weapons capacity by 2009, or even 2008, were 'within the margin of error, given the number of unknowns', the report said.

It stressed that the limited access of the IAEA nuclear watchdog to Iran's facilities required policymakers 'to rely on worst-case assumptions about Iran's progress toward the bomb.'

In the judgement of the IISS there is a growing consensus that an Iranian nuclear capacity is 'both almost inevitable, and certainly bad.'

In the absence of an effective strategy to prevent that outcome, a 'hedging strategy of containment might theoretically offer itself,' said the IISS report.

Greater US involvement in the region, at the invitation of Gulf Arab states, could create a debate within the Iranian regime as to whether its security interests were served by continuing to ignore international concern, the report suggests.

There was, however, no doubt that the acquisition of a nuclear weapon by Iran would dramatically alter the regional balance of power and 'inspire all sorts of potential diplomatic shifts.'

Changing the cost-benefit analysis in Tehran, preventing a nuclear outcome, and controlling its consequences if it takes place will 'present the most difficult and classic strategic challenge in the months and years ahead.'

[familyop]

...a different story from what Reuters published.

[stephenjohnbanker]

They won't be around that long : )

[avacado]

--- Greater US involvement in the region, at the invitation of Gulf Arab states, could create a debate within the Iranian regime as to whether its security interests were served by continuing to ignore international concern, the report suggests. ---

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!! So now they NEED the good ol' USofA! Spit on us, call us Nazis, and call us morons, but nowwwwwwwwwwwwww they need us. How adorable!

Tell the world we're buzy!

[oolatec]

News for IISS... Iran already has at least one nuke. They are goading us into attacking them first.

[LittleBillyInfidel]

That report is nonsense! It's only four or five simple steps to enrichment at 90% purity. How the hell does IISS know the stage of processing of which Iran is enduring? We couldn't even get a proper general assessment of where/what the WMD was in Iraq!

Iran can be ready with a nasty piece of work by this year based on what THEY have already admitted to having, centrifuge wise.

[Revel]

Iran could have a nuke next month...No wait
Iran could have a nuke in 1 years...No wait
Iran could have a nuke in 3 years...No wait
Iran could have a nuke in 5 years...No wait
Iran could have a nuke in 10 years...No wait
Iran could have a nuke in 4 years...No wait
Iran could already have a nuke...

This garbage is getting old.

Nothing like pulling a number from out of a hat.

[Zhangliqun]

In the judgement of the IISS there is a growing consensus that an Iranian nuclear capacity is 'both almost inevitable, and certainly bad.'

Gee, you think?

[familyop]

...related.

Who pays when U.S. pulls out?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1637773/posts

[expatguy]

Iran could be able to produce between 20 and 25 kilos of highly-enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon by 2010

And what if someone gives them some?

An American Expat in Southeast Asia

[expatguy]

A even different story if some gives them the enriched uranium.

Im of the opinion someone already has.

An American Expat in Southeast Asia

[JasonC]

"Strategy" of containment? What strategy? And what containment? Everybody with two nickels to rub together will have nuclear weapons by 2015.